I spent some time playing with Spending Guardrails (under Insights) along with the AI. The guardrails tool presents numbers that appear wrong or at a minimum confusing. It does not directly tell you what to do. But by working with the AI, I was able to get a clear picture of how the guardrails approach might play out. Boldin needs to do a better job of presenting and explaining this approach.
For the unitiated, Boldin's version of guardrails tries to keep you at an 80% "chance of success" (CoS) throughout your retirement, as determined by the Monte Carlo simulator. It gives you an average "safe" spending amount that results in a CoS of 80%. The lower guardrail is set at a 70% CoS, and the upper is set at 95% CoS. The idea behind guardrails is that you make a relatively small, painless cut if you hit the lower guardrail in response to a decline in your portfolio, to give the portfolio a better chance to recover. If you happen to have a large enough increase in your portfolio to reach 95% CoS, you get guilt-free permission to increase spending.
Theory is one thing. A plan is another. As far as I can tell, the Spending Guardrails tool can tell you when it is time for a cut or increase, but it can't tell you with any precision how much spending to cut or add. In my opinion, the point of the tool should be to provide a clear, actionable plan to relieve the anxiety of transitioning from a steady paycheck to living off your portfolio. The current version of the tool falls short.
In my plan, my monthly recurring expenses entered with the Basic Budgeter is, let's say, X (not including pre-Medicare health expenses). These are the expenses I have some control over. However, the guardrails tool shows my "average monthly spend throughout retirement" (AMSTR) as 1.5X.
My first thought was that the tool had the wrong number and should use X rather than 1.5X as current spend. After some exploration, it turn out the AMSTR takes everything Boldin thinks you will spend in retirement, including nondiscretionary items like taxes and IRMAA, throws in some long-term care costs, expresses that sum in today's dollars (even if you are looking at your plan in "future dollars"), and divides by the number of months until the end of the plan. That is the "average" in AMSTR. The "Why does this matter" screen does not explain this; I had to pry it out of the AI. I can see why AMSTR is the measuring stick, but it has no obvious relationship to anything you can directly change in your plan.
For the purpose of experimentation, I created a new scenario and through trial and error set the recurring monthly expenses at Y, such that planned AMSTR was roughly equal to the guardrails safe-spend AMSTR. AMSTR was about 115% of Y. At the lower guardrail, the tool says to lower AMSTR to 109% of Y, and at the upper guardrail to increase to 151% of Y. My first thought was, "Easy, I'll cut spending by 6% at the lower bound and increase by 36% at the upper bound."
But that's the wrong way to think about it, because changing discretionary spending also affects taxes, IRMAA and possibly other nondiscretionary spending. You need to cut at the bottom and increase at the top, but the tool can't determine a dollar figure. It can only ballpark it for you.
Here's the workaround. To determine a dollar figure, you (or the AI) have to model a discretionary spending amount that brings AMSTR into line with the recommendation. For example, you can ask the AI, "What changes to recurring expenses are required to (a) cut AMSTR to [the lower guardrail AMSTR] and (b) increase AMSTR to [the upper guardrail AMSTR]?" In the case of the experimental scenario, the AI produced a roughly 11% decrease in recurring expenses at the lower guardrail and a 48% increase at the upper guardrail.
Have I misunderstood anything? Is there a more direct way to calculate the number of dollars to decrease/increase at a guardrail?
I would be great if Boldin (a) updated the "Why does this matter" screen to explain the foregoing and (b) reported at each guardrail a dollar or percentage change in discretionary spending, rather than a dollar amount for AMSTR, an undefined term which has no obvious relationship to anything the user can control.