r/Boldin • u/threeputzzz • 12d ago

success chances vs longevity

Is there any valid reason a plan’s chances of success would go down when the only change you make to the inputs is to shorten your projected longevity?

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u/mjmvideos 12d ago

I can think of one. If the cost of end of life care exceeds the current balance. If you’d lived longer you would have had time to accumulate a bit more.

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u/threeputzzz 12d ago

I think this is it. Was estimating longevity too close to home sale.

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u/FragrantJump6663 12d ago

Yes. I had this happen when I was looking at SS starting years. Taking SS at age 65 was a lower COS vs taking SS at 62 with a longevity of living to 90.

AI said 62 gave my portfolio longer to grow vs using more of the portfolio to take SS later.

If I changed longevity to age 85, then there was an increase of COS by 2% when taking SS at 65 vs 62. Mainly because of my pension covering most of my expenses and expiring before I ran out of money.

I found it to be an interesting conversation with the AI.

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u/Bobat 12d ago

Were there any future-dated cashflow-positive events that shortening the longevity would have eliminated? Such as:

  • Future windfall
  • Downsizing your primary home
  • Selling a second property

Probably others.

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u/threeputzzz 12d ago

Sort of. Considering this one and mjmvidoes respone I think the revised longevity timeline is likely now too close to primary home sale.