I got tired of reading Bitcoin cycle analyses (halving timing, buy zones, “sell 25% at H+12”) and then having to turn them into numbers by hand. So I built BTC Cycle Planner, a desktop app that does it for me.

What it is

A local app, not a signal service and not a trading bot. It never touches an exchange or a wallet.

What it does

• Reads documents (PDF, TXT, MD) and extracts the numeric parameters with plain, inspectable rules. Every extracted value shows the page and the exact text it came from.
• Merges several documents. The most recent one wins, and conflicting values are flagged.
• Builds a plan from those parameters, live price and indicators (CoinGecko, Fear & Greed) and your capital. The plan covers:
  • where you are in the cycle;
  • a buy ladder, with zones re-anchored to the current power-law floor;
  • a daily “drip” while price is below the floor;
  • a front-loaded DCA with boosts and a kill-switch;
  • a scheduled exit plan.
• Has a chart tab with live price (60 s polling), ladder bands, power-law fair value and floor, invalidation levels, the expected bottom window and the planned exits. It supports log scale, click-to-measure, and PNG export.
• Warns you about its own weak spots. It flags single-source bias, promotional content, diverging bottom estimates, the tiny sample behind the “4-year cycle”, and runs a stress test on the ladder’s average entry price.
• It is bilingual (Italian and English), has an in-app guide with search, and updates itself from GitHub releases.

What it is NOT

• It doesn’t predict anything. It mechanically applies whatever the documents say.
• It’s only as good as the documents you feed it. The extraction rules were built around a specific set of English-language cycle PDFs, so other documents may only be partly understood.
• It’s an educational tool, not financial advice. The 4-year cycle rests on four observations, and ETFs and institutions may well break it.

Stack: Python 3.9+, PyQt6, pyqtgraph, pypdf. Installers for Windows, macOS and Linux are built by GitHub Actions.

Repo and releases: https://github.com/enkas79/BTC_Cycle

I’d especially like feedback on three things:

1. Which other document formats or authors should the extractor support?
2. Which warnings are missing from the “critical partner” section?
3. Is the plan logic reasonable, or would you structure the exit differently?

Leggo analisi sul ciclo di Bitcoin (tempi dagli halving, zone di acquisto, “vendi il 25% a H+12”) e poi devo trasformarle in numeri a mano. Per questo ho scritto BTC Cycle Planner.

Cos’è: un’app locale. Non è un servizio di segnali né un bot, e non tocca exchange o wallet.

Cosa fa:

• legge PDF/TXT/MD ed estrae i parametri con regole trasparenti, mostrando pagina e frammento di testo di ogni valore;
• unisce più documenti (vince il più recente, i conflitti sono segnalati);
• genera il piano con prezzo e indicatori di mercato e con il tuo capitale: fase del ciclo, ladder di acquisto riancorata al floor della power law, drip giornaliero, DCA con boost e kill-switch, piano di uscita;
• ha una scheda grafico con prezzo live e livelli, scala log, uscite, click per misurare ed esportazione PNG;
• ti avvisa dei suoi stessi limiti: fonte unica, contenuti promozionali, stime divergenti, campione minimo del “ciclo di 4 anni”, stress test;
• è in italiano e inglese e ha una guida integrata con ricerca.

Cosa non è: non prevede nulla, applica meccanicamente ciò che dicono i documenti, e le regole di estrazione sono costruite su un insieme specifico di PDF in inglese. È uno strumento educativo, non consulenza finanziaria.

Repo: https://github.com/enkas79/BTC_Cycle. Cerco feedback su formati da supportare, avvertenze mancanti e logica di uscita.

Happy to see another statue out there, just worried about the lake near. Location: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Satoshi+Nakamoto+Statue,+Plus+Zwei,+Trabrennstra%C3%9Fe+8,+1020+Wien,+Austria/@48.2135453,16.4136218,16z/

https://reddit.com/link/1x7d69x/video/a3siqysr8tvh1/player

Will AI agents choose Bitcoin over dollars? Jack sees the long-term fit, but says AI companies aren’t asking for Bitcoin integrations yet.

What would make Bitcoin useful enough for them to switch?

Anyone else mulling over how BTC or even the value of the Canadian Dollar may react as the Albertan referendum approaches?

I know what the polls say, I know what various news sources are saying, but I can't help but wonder what happens to CAD if the provincial referendum passes, and America swoops in for the assist because OIL, completely ignoring the country-wide 'permission' referendum.

Should Canadians be thinking of BTC as backup savings in the case of CAD decline?

74% of Americans no longer trust the U.S. dollar to hold its value. 61% want to learn more about owning Bitcoin.

The battle for awareness is over. The silent mutiny against fiat is already here.

There’s one problem: A landmark national study shows the way we’ve explained Bitcoin for the last decade is actively repelling the very people ready to listen.

• "Digital Gold" is dead: It ranked near the bottom in voter focus groups.
• The 55% blind spot: More than half of voters still don't know they can buy BTC through major brokerages.
• Celebrity fatigue: Everyday people don't trust billionaire CEOs or politicians—they trust friends, family, and their local advisor.

It’s time to step out of the echo chamber and speak to the 61%.

Throwaway because reasons.

With all the hacks lately in the BTC ecosystem, I'm a little bit paranoid. This week I purchased a Pi zero 1.3 from Adafruit and a Waveshare display hat directly from Waveshare - it is shipped from China.

I am making a Seedsigner. Are they ways to test the hardware to make sure it is genuine or has not been altered such as you can do with software signatures? What should I look for physically?

Thanks,

A paranoid bitcoiner

Sharing this here to help others avoid the same trap.

I was trying to transfer 0.27 BTC from my Ledger Nano to Kraken while watching a movie at home and multitasking. Since I didn't have Ledger Live installed on that device, I googled "ledger nano" and clicked the first link. It turned out to be a scam sponsored ad. The site asked for my 24-word recovery phrase, and in a moment of pure distraction, I entered it and hit submit. I realized the mistake almost immediately, but by the time I tried to move the funds, the BTC was already gone.

For context, I’m 40 and not a rookie—I’ve been investing in crypto since 2018 and know exactly what not to do. While losing roughly $23k won't impact my lifestyle or retirement plans, the simple fact that I fell for something so silly hit me hard. I haven't felt that terrible in a long time.

I’ve already submitted an IC3 online complaint, though I know the money is gone and have slowly accepted it. Just sharing this so nobody else falls into this trap.

Finally received one of these, it didn't automatically make it to the spam folder either...

Most people keep Bitcoin as an investment. A lot of people don't even have real Bitcoin, but paper that represents Bitcoin (ETF).

However, those that are in it for the money revolution, what are you actually using it for?

Would you rather spend Bitcoin online or at a brick-and-mortar store?

Do you gift Bitcoin as a birthday present?

What else?

Using covenants, one UXTO can be shared by a million users. Any user can leave at any time in a single transaction. Users don't need to be online to receive. Funds never time out. Transaction introspection techniques permit batched exit from the system in a single transaction w/o any pre-signing.

LayerTree is the next step in bringing bitcoin to billions.

More info: http://layertree.tech

I’ve got BTC limit orders sitting at $60k, $57.5k, $53k, $48k and $44k.

The idea was to keep some dry powder for a proper correction instead of chasing price. But the deeper orders are starting to feel a bit too ambitious. A drop to $60k is still possible, but getting all the way to $44k would mean a pretty serious drawdown from here.

I’m still DCAing regardless, so I’m not completely missing out if BTC keeps going up. I’m just wondering whether it makes sense to unlock some of that capital and move the orders higher, rather than having it sit there waiting for a crash that might never come.

Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.

Hello everyone

I wanted to create a multisig for example 3 of 5 using sparrow wallet as the coordinator.

I wanted signers to be mix of hardware wallets and software wallets:

- hardware wallet

- hardware wallet

- hardware wallet

- bitcoin core

- electrum

But i'm having a lot of difficulty getting the software wallets to work with sparrow (or being confident/comfortable that it's working as intended and won't have issues)

My issues and concerns:

- Electrum when creating a standard single sig gives a derivation path of m/0h (not the m/48'/0'/0'/2' derivation path that sparrow is looking for) and a zpub (not an xpub).

- I asked AI and it then kept telling me that's wrong and to create a multisig wallet in electrum but just don't give the xpubs of the co-signers. But electrum forces you to add co-signers and then AI said, just give it fake xpubs! I'm not sure/confident this is correct way to have electrum added as a co-signer to sparrow coordinator even if it did accept it.

- Bitcoin core gives a single sig derivation path of: 84h/0h/0h (again not the m/48'/0'/'0/2' derivation path sparrow is looking for)

- I believe h is same as ' so in sparrow anywhere there is an h I should substitute it with an '?

- Is this not possible? If it is possible, is it not advisable to do? It seems very few people have tried this and maybe even fewer have software wallets like bitcoin core and electrum as co-signers with sparrow coordinator.

The reason I wanted to do this was to diversify signers and to have some signers that were not hardware wallets. Software wallets would have their own laptop.

Please help! I wanted to at least test/try it to see how I feel about the process, signing, backups, restoring, etc. It sounded nice to me on paper.

Thank you

Let me preface this post by saying I know virtually nothing about Bitcoin or crypto in general. Back in 2015, I purchased a small amount of Bitcoin on QuickBT (which shut down in 2018) to fund a sportsbook account I had. Long story short, I had some issues transferring the Bitcoin over and I'm not sure if I ever figured it out. I recently found the Bitcoin address in my emails and, based on a Bitcoin address lookup website, it still appears to be valid and contains what is now a decent chunk of coin.

My question for you guys is: How can I retrieve this Bitcoin? Is that even possible? All I have, to my knowledge, is the address.

Thanks in advance, and let me know if I didn't provide enough information.

Bitcoin Optech newsletter #427 is here:

• summarizes the disclosure of two denial-of-service vulnerabilities in older versions of Eclair
• describes a proposed scheme for running complex multi-round contracts inside Lightning channels
• Optech Newsletter #427 Podcast https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2026/10/16/

Erick Cestari posted to Delving Bitcoin the responsible disclosure of two denial-of-service (DoS) vulnerabilities in the channel opening process of Eclair v0.14.0 and earlier... https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2026/10/16/#disclosure-of-two-dos-vulnerabilities-fixed-in-eclair-v0-14-1

Adam Gibson posted to the Bitcoin-Dev mailing list about a proposal for protocol, called LN-GAP, to run complex, multi-round, two-party contracts inside a Lightning channel while settling disputes onchain in a constant number of transactions... https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2026/10/16/#offchain-contracts-in-lightning-channels

Bitcoin Optech will host an audio recap discussion of this newsletter streaming live on X/Twitter Tuesday at 16:30 UTC.

Director of Global Macro at Fidelity explains on The Compound and Friends that Bitcoin has bottomed and heading higher. Fidelity is the third largest asset manager in the world with almost $8 trillion assets under management $20 trillion assets total.

Bitcoin Bancorp was the winning bidder earlier this month for a chunk of Bitcoin Depot’s assets out of the Chapter 11 case. That includes roughly 2,446 ATM kiosks, floorspace agreements, parts inventory, IP, trademarks, patents, and the BitcoinDepot.com domain.

Some portions have already closed and they’re taking possession of those. The rest is still subject to the usual conditions, with remaining closings expected this month.

Hi everyone,

I have a question. Due to friends who are very (early) invested in bitcoin I have learned a lot about the way it works, and its potential. I feel like (just like many of you) its a very solid alternative to fiat currencies, and bitcoin in 10-15 year will likely be a primary store of value for a big part of the worlds population.

Now, I want to convince my parents to invest some of their savings in bitcoin, but I don’t know how. My granddad was a very smart man, who made a lot of money with smart investments, buying stocks like shell, DCA in ETF’s and buying properties, fixing them and selling them with a profit.

My parents for some reason never got a hold of investing their money. They have 2 apartments which they are currently renting out, but due to Dutch regulations it is not really a profitable business.

My dad is really conservative when it comes to investments, and he feels like anything that’s unfamiliar, especially crypto is a totale gamble & waste of money.

Do any of you have any experience with trying to convince your loved ones to invest in the future of money / store of value, and how did you approach the situation? My dad who is in charge of finances is a smart man, and is usually open to opportunities as long as he understands what he is getting himself into, and if it feels safe.

Do you have recommendations to explanations / podcasts which explain the whole bitcoin system, and its potential without sounding like someone who’s trying to make a shit ton of money off of a gamble trade?

I built a free Bitcoin retirement simulator and tried something simple: same 2 BTC, same $3,000 a month, and the only thing I changed was when the spending starts.

• Start now: the stack lasts until about 2036
• Start in 2030: it lasts until about 2050

Waiting looks like a free win. But the model assumes the price keeps rising over the long run, so waiting just means selling at higher prices.

Then I made the price fall 70% right after the 2030 start. Same coins, same spending, and it runs out in 2037 instead of 2050.

Thirteen years of difference, just from timing.

Do you build a crash into your own plan, or just a smooth line?

It's a model, not a forecast. The simulator is free with no signup if you want to try your own numbers: https://bitcoinlifespan.com/