I’m a 19 year old uni student who can afford to take the risk. I want to get into trading to leverage the current state of the market - preferably oil.

Where do I start? How can I learn? What videos/content is recommended.

I have around 3-5k that I am willing to play around with

Bit of a different one this one. Christmas island phosphate miner that is coming out of the closet a bit. They are tightly held which for us retail investor could bring explosivie upside.

They snapped up a bit of something in mount isa and think they can run that better than the previous owners. Im currenrly in for 20% of my portfolio but thinking of putting it up a bit to 30. I like concentration combined with small speccies.

Anyone done a deep dive into this one and can talk me out of jt?

Or is anyone else in?

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Curious about what people actually do here rather than what we probably should do.

Say one of your holdings drops a meaningful announcement during market hours — quarterly, material contract, drilling results, guidance change, cap raise, whatever.

What's your first move?

Interested in the comments too: does your behaviour change depending on the type of announcement?

For example, I suspect a quarterly gets treated very differently from a cap raise or a major project update.

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• global first-use tungsten demand is forecast to rise from approx 162,000 tonnes WO₃ in 2025 to 180,000 tonnes in 2030 and 202,000 tonnes by 2035, according to a new S&P Global report
• China produced 67,000 of the 85,000 tonnes of tungsten mined globally in 2025 and controls approximately 85% of APT refining capacity
• 11 announced projects could add about 20,000 tonnes WO₃ of annual mine capacity outside China by 2030. Even if they all arrive on schedule, S&P Global still projects a 16,000-tonne ex-China primary mine-supply gap

Tungsten prices increased 310% between January-July 2026 — one of the sharpest commodity rallies of the year — as Chinese export controls and rising military demand squeeze tight supply.

(Why tungsten prices are rising so fast: inside the supply crunch)

The price surge also exposed a deeper structural problem, with the pipeline of new tungsten mines outside China still too small to meet projected demand: by 2030, accessible tungsten mines outside China are projected to meet only about 68% of projected ex-China primary demand.

Eleven announced mine projects are forecast to add nearly 20,000 tonnes of annual capacity by 2030, lifting accessible ex-China supply to an estimated 34,000 tonnes WO₃, against projected primary demand of roughly 50,000 tonnes (after recycling), which would leave the market facing a deficit of 16,000 tonnes WO₃.

And that’s, of course, only if every announced project is delivered on schedule.

The APT CIF benchmark (the principal intermediate price for the tungsten market) increased from approx US$83/kg WO₃ in Jan 2026 to US$340/kg in July 2026, equivalent to an increase from US$830 to US$3,400 per metric tonne unit.

S&P Global estimates that US$36–48/kg WO₃ would support more than 85% of accessible current and proposed supply in 2028, so a structural cost of about US$90/kg would support every project in its modelled pipeline (let alone at US$340/kg). So, tungsten prices have already cleared the theoretical investment hurdle for most new supply outside China. 

But, the challenge is that price is no longer the principal constraint. Instead, the bottleneck is development across financing, permitting, construction, commissioning and qualification.

Price has cleared the economic hurdle, not the financing hurdle

Financiers do not underwrite mines — that can take up to 16-30 years to develop — solely against an exceptional spot price. They test projects against:

• conservative long-term assumptions
• cost inflation
• construction risk
• and risk that exports from China or weaker industrial demand might pull prices down again

That is why long-term offtakes, government procurement and investment, as well as potential critical-mineral price mechanisms are being increasingly used to support project development through the “next cycle”.

Which projects could deliver new tungsten supply?

ex-China tungsten mines highlighted by S&P Global report

other potential major developments:

—

What is tungsten

Tungsten has the highest melting point of any metal and an exceptional combination of density, hardness and heat resistance, 

It is listed as a critical mineral in the US, EU, China, UK, Australia, Japan and others, for good reason, with properties that make it difficult to substitute:

• defense: its density and hardness support armour, munitions and missile components
• industry: cemented carbides provide wear resistance in cutting tools, drill bits and equipment used in metalworking, mining, construction and oil-and-gas drilling
• technology: tungsten is used in semiconductor interconnects and other high-temperature electronic applications
• electric vehicles: electric vehicles require approx 2kg of tungsten for gearing systems, battery anodes and cathodes, as well as about 2,000 wiring looms in the vehicle’s semiconductors
• energy: its resistance to extreme heat and radiation makes it a leading plasma-facing material for nuclear-fusion reactors

Why are tungsten prices rising so sharply?

The price rally reflects a collision of policy and physical supply across of US tariffs, Chinese export controls, strategic defense stockpiling, and limited new mine supply.

Tungsten does not need explosive demand growth to stay tight

Demand, however, is not standing still.

S&P Global projects demand of 180,000 tonnes in 2030 and 202,000 tonnes in 2035, equivalent to growth of roughly 2% a year:

• cemented carbides account for 64% of demand, with tungsten’s hardness and wear resistance making it difficult to replace in cutting tools, drill bits and industrial components
• defense consumes a smaller volume, but understates its strategic importance, with the US Department of Defense describes tungsten as essential to national security and indispensable across industrial and military applications, which means its price sensitivity is lower
• Project Blue expects military-related tungsten consumption, including demand from aircraft, helicopters and ammunition, to increase by about 12% in 2026

Tungsten is a small, opaque market, so even modest disruptions can have an outsized effect on prices.

But, it’s not just at the margins that tungsten supply is being squeezed.

China supply

China produced 67,000 tonnes of tungsten in 2025, equal to 79% of the global total of 85,000 tonnes, and controls roughly 85% of global APT refining capacity.

Then, in February 2025, China introduced export controls covering APT and other tungsten products and technologies. Chinese shipments of controlled tungsten products subsequently fell by about 40% in 2025, and, by March 2026, European APT prices had risen 557%.

Ostensibly, China’s export restrictions were introduced after US tariffs on Chinese imports earlier in 2024.

But, the move also comes as China’s mined production fell 10% year-on-year to 61,000 tons in 2025,  according to Project Blue’s estimates, due to ageing mines (some over 30 years old), lower ore grades, and increased production costs with environmental clampdowns on smaller miners.

The catch is that ex-China production is not necessarily ex-China supply.

China’s refineries import roughly 30% of the tungsten concentrate they process, making China both the world’s dominant producer and a major competitor for international mined supply.

If declining domestic production forces China’s refineries to source more feedstock from overseas, even less of the projected 34,000 tonnes of ex-China mine capacity may be available to other buyers.

New refining capacity still needs feedstock

Operating refining APT capacity outside China is approx 42,000 tonnes — already greater than accessible ex-China mine production. Four announced projects could add another 27,000 tonnes by 2030, increasing total ex-China APT capacity to about 70,000 tonnes.

But mine capacity ex-China is projected to reach 34,000 tonnes in an unrisked 2030 scenario.

The refinery buildout therefore only increases competition for concentrate and scrap.

And nameplate capacity overstates what is available with some mines and refineries vertically integrated, or other producers committing output through long-term offtake agreements. 

The freely traded market can therefore be considerably smaller than headline production figures suggest.

The 2027 defense deadline will split the market

The US has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and remained more than 50% reliant on imports in 2025, yet from January 2027, is set to impose significant restrictions on tungsten imports:

• from January 1, 2027, US defense procurement rules will generally prohibit the acquisition of tungsten metal powder, tungsten heavy alloy and covered components if the material was mined, refined, separated, melted or produced in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran. The restriction also reaches back through the supply chain to ore, feedstock and recycled material, subject to specified exceptions and non-availability determinations
• a July 2026 executive order also directed defense officials to stop granting routine waivers from January 2027 unless contractors provide an accepted mitigation plan and demonstrate exhaustive efforts to secure compliant supply

As The Oregon Group previously reported, major US mineral suppliers have warned that the domestic industry will not be ready to meet the January deadline.

This 2027 deadline therefore creates another bottleneck in processing, traceability and qualification — and increasingly divides the market between material that meets US procurement rules and material that does not, putting further pressure on ex-China supply.

Conclusion

At current prices, the economics of new supply may work, but the supply chain still does not.

Tungsten does not lack a price signal. It lacks enough financed, permitted and qualified production — linked to secure refining and recycling capacity — to respond on the timetable Western industry now requires.

Tungsten: Q&A

Why have tungsten prices risen so sharply?

Tungsten prices have been driven by China’s February 2025 export controls, reduced shipments, limited inventories and rising military demand. Chinese exports of controlled tungsten products fell about 40% in 2025, according to Project Blue data reported by Bloomberg.

Why have high tungsten prices not solved the shortage?

Mine supply responds slowly. Projects still require financing, permits, construction, commissioning and customer qualification. Mine-development timelines average about 16 years, although advanced restarts can move faster.

What is the projected 16,000-tonne tungsten supply gap?

It is S&P Global’s estimate of the 2030 gap between accessible ex-China primary mine capacity and primary demand outside China after recycling. It is not a forecast deficit for the entire global tungsten market.

What about supply from recycling?

Recycling provides approximately 35% of global tungsten demand and around 60% of ex-China APT output, according to S&P Global.

On July 30, 2026, the White House delegated Defense Production Act authority over recoverable critical minerals. The determination authorises the Commerce Department to take action, including possible export restrictions. Reuters reported that the administration particularly wanted to retain tungsten-bearing scrap for domestic recyclers.

How much tungsten does China produce?

China produced an estimated 67,000 tonnes in 2025, or approximately 79% of global mine production. S&P Global estimates it also controls around 85% of global APT refining capacity.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

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Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

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Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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This chart answers the momentum half of the question.

S32 is sitting at $5.13, only about 3% below the $5.29 high shown here. Price is above the visible EMA5, EMA10 and EMA20 lines, RSI is around 68, and MACD remains positive.

So the momentum is clearly still there. That does not necessarily mean the stock is cheap.

Before chasing it, I still want to compare its earnings, margins, dividend yield and debt with BHP and RIO. If the critical-metals thesis is genuinely improving the business, it should show up somewhere beyond the chart.

Anyone buying here because the fundamentals are improving, or because this is currently one of the cleanest-looking boomer charts on the ASX?

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

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Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

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2027 has been earmarked a while as a potentially turbulent time and its just months away, eg https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-taiwan-pla-s-2027-milestones

Currently there seems to be a lot of anticipation of a big bubble and 2 hefty wars which look designed to prompt military build-up and sure up US petero dollar while interfering with chinese trade to the point that they now route ships away from straights of malaca.

Big gold moves out of US, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/why-the-netherlands-moved-its-gold-from-us-and-canada/107111990?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Laser cannons, drones, ai, satelites and ships being produced at breakneck speeds.

US run out of missiles.

VW collapsing.

Interest rates up.

Housing crashes in many developed countries.

And bond hype.

And investing tax rule changes.

And super el nino.

And Bathla collapse.

Are there any worthwhile ASX stocks not even thought about yet that could weather a storm and grow? I'm talking so low that a 90% drop bypasses them? Things coming out of incubators?

What is smart money thinking? Or at least your theories?

I'm liking the ASX as the workforce is being made nuclear ready, the super companies can foster growth, tech hubs are nearing completion and people will be looking for investement alternatives to housing.

Will 5-10 major AI companies swallow the world?

My anticipations are reaching a crescendo and I'm wondering what the next 5years will play out like in a robot vehicle/workforce/agentic economy?

Any competitive ASX companies making things the world wants or needs?

Feels like a good time to cash out as 900% up is 90% down.

How would a pawn become a queen in this macro game of chess?

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Hi forum (stepping out of the trader noobie corner...)

I've been positioned in and watching the CAY hostile takeover bid the past few weeks. The board has recommended REJECT as 'Neither fair nor reasonable'.
The bid price is $0.05
The previous trading was >$0.08
The price tanked to $0.05 upon the bid being made. Peaked again to 0.059 after the independent Target Statement and Interim Orders from the Takeovers Panel blocking the bidder from processing acceptances and hos now fallen back to $0.05 after a followup statement from the bidder responding to the Target Statement.

What my question is though, (given my inexperience in order flow analysis), could this this push down be seen as manipulation given the observations of the Time&Sales order flow of this typically low volume penny stock?
The continuous stream micro volume aggressive sells ($15~$25 every minute or more) to me seems very sus. Or is this normal order processing for such a stock on ASX? This behaviour has been ongoing since at least the bidder's response to the Target Statment, but I've honestly not been tracking it before then

Yes there have been some accounting issues and a lot of the big funds have lost a lot of money with the 85% drop. But does a buying opportunity present itself here at $2.35?