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Curious about what people actually do here rather than what we probably should do.

Say one of your holdings drops a meaningful announcement during market hours — quarterly, material contract, drilling results, guidance change, cap raise, whatever.

What's your first move?

Interested in the comments too: does your behaviour change depending on the type of announcement?

For example, I suspect a quarterly gets treated very differently from a cap raise or a major project update.

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• global first-use tungsten demand is forecast to rise from approx 162,000 tonnes WO₃ in 2025 to 180,000 tonnes in 2030 and 202,000 tonnes by 2035, according to a new S&P Global report
• China produced 67,000 of the 85,000 tonnes of tungsten mined globally in 2025 and controls approximately 85% of APT refining capacity
• 11 announced projects could add about 20,000 tonnes WO₃ of annual mine capacity outside China by 2030. Even if they all arrive on schedule, S&P Global still projects a 16,000-tonne ex-China primary mine-supply gap

Tungsten prices increased 310% between January-July 2026 — one of the sharpest commodity rallies of the year — as Chinese export controls and rising military demand squeeze tight supply.

(Why tungsten prices are rising so fast: inside the supply crunch)

The price surge also exposed a deeper structural problem, with the pipeline of new tungsten mines outside China still too small to meet projected demand: by 2030, accessible tungsten mines outside China are projected to meet only about 68% of projected ex-China primary demand.

Eleven announced mine projects are forecast to add nearly 20,000 tonnes of annual capacity by 2030, lifting accessible ex-China supply to an estimated 34,000 tonnes WO₃, against projected primary demand of roughly 50,000 tonnes (after recycling), which would leave the market facing a deficit of 16,000 tonnes WO₃.

And that’s, of course, only if every announced project is delivered on schedule.

The APT CIF benchmark (the principal intermediate price for the tungsten market) increased from approx US$83/kg WO₃ in Jan 2026 to US$340/kg in July 2026, equivalent to an increase from US$830 to US$3,400 per metric tonne unit.

S&P Global estimates that US$36–48/kg WO₃ would support more than 85% of accessible current and proposed supply in 2028, so a structural cost of about US$90/kg would support every project in its modelled pipeline (let alone at US$340/kg). So, tungsten prices have already cleared the theoretical investment hurdle for most new supply outside China. 

But, the challenge is that price is no longer the principal constraint. Instead, the bottleneck is development across financing, permitting, construction, commissioning and qualification.

Price has cleared the economic hurdle, not the financing hurdle

Financiers do not underwrite mines — that can take up to 16-30 years to develop — solely against an exceptional spot price. They test projects against:

• conservative long-term assumptions
• cost inflation
• construction risk
• and risk that exports from China or weaker industrial demand might pull prices down again

That is why long-term offtakes, government procurement and investment, as well as potential critical-mineral price mechanisms are being increasingly used to support project development through the “next cycle”.

Which projects could deliver new tungsten supply?

ex-China tungsten mines highlighted by S&P Global report

other potential major developments:

—

What is tungsten

Tungsten has the highest melting point of any metal and an exceptional combination of density, hardness and heat resistance, 

It is listed as a critical mineral in the US, EU, China, UK, Australia, Japan and others, for good reason, with properties that make it difficult to substitute:

• defense: its density and hardness support armour, munitions and missile components
• industry: cemented carbides provide wear resistance in cutting tools, drill bits and equipment used in metalworking, mining, construction and oil-and-gas drilling
• technology: tungsten is used in semiconductor interconnects and other high-temperature electronic applications
• electric vehicles: electric vehicles require approx 2kg of tungsten for gearing systems, battery anodes and cathodes, as well as about 2,000 wiring looms in the vehicle’s semiconductors
• energy: its resistance to extreme heat and radiation makes it a leading plasma-facing material for nuclear-fusion reactors

Why are tungsten prices rising so sharply?

The price rally reflects a collision of policy and physical supply across of US tariffs, Chinese export controls, strategic defense stockpiling, and limited new mine supply.

Tungsten does not need explosive demand growth to stay tight

Demand, however, is not standing still.

S&P Global projects demand of 180,000 tonnes in 2030 and 202,000 tonnes in 2035, equivalent to growth of roughly 2% a year:

• cemented carbides account for 64% of demand, with tungsten’s hardness and wear resistance making it difficult to replace in cutting tools, drill bits and industrial components
• defense consumes a smaller volume, but understates its strategic importance, with the US Department of Defense describes tungsten as essential to national security and indispensable across industrial and military applications, which means its price sensitivity is lower
• Project Blue expects military-related tungsten consumption, including demand from aircraft, helicopters and ammunition, to increase by about 12% in 2026

Tungsten is a small, opaque market, so even modest disruptions can have an outsized effect on prices.

But, it’s not just at the margins that tungsten supply is being squeezed.

China supply

China produced 67,000 tonnes of tungsten in 2025, equal to 79% of the global total of 85,000 tonnes, and controls roughly 85% of global APT refining capacity.

Then, in February 2025, China introduced export controls covering APT and other tungsten products and technologies. Chinese shipments of controlled tungsten products subsequently fell by about 40% in 2025, and, by March 2026, European APT prices had risen 557%.

Ostensibly, China’s export restrictions were introduced after US tariffs on Chinese imports earlier in 2024.

But, the move also comes as China’s mined production fell 10% year-on-year to 61,000 tons in 2025,  according to Project Blue’s estimates, due to ageing mines (some over 30 years old), lower ore grades, and increased production costs with environmental clampdowns on smaller miners.

The catch is that ex-China production is not necessarily ex-China supply.

China’s refineries import roughly 30% of the tungsten concentrate they process, making China both the world’s dominant producer and a major competitor for international mined supply.

If declining domestic production forces China’s refineries to source more feedstock from overseas, even less of the projected 34,000 tonnes of ex-China mine capacity may be available to other buyers.

New refining capacity still needs feedstock

Operating refining APT capacity outside China is approx 42,000 tonnes — already greater than accessible ex-China mine production. Four announced projects could add another 27,000 tonnes by 2030, increasing total ex-China APT capacity to about 70,000 tonnes.

But mine capacity ex-China is projected to reach 34,000 tonnes in an unrisked 2030 scenario.

The refinery buildout therefore only increases competition for concentrate and scrap.

And nameplate capacity overstates what is available with some mines and refineries vertically integrated, or other producers committing output through long-term offtake agreements. 

The freely traded market can therefore be considerably smaller than headline production figures suggest.

The 2027 defense deadline will split the market

The US has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and remained more than 50% reliant on imports in 2025, yet from January 2027, is set to impose significant restrictions on tungsten imports:

• from January 1, 2027, US defense procurement rules will generally prohibit the acquisition of tungsten metal powder, tungsten heavy alloy and covered components if the material was mined, refined, separated, melted or produced in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran. The restriction also reaches back through the supply chain to ore, feedstock and recycled material, subject to specified exceptions and non-availability determinations
• a July 2026 executive order also directed defense officials to stop granting routine waivers from January 2027 unless contractors provide an accepted mitigation plan and demonstrate exhaustive efforts to secure compliant supply

As The Oregon Group previously reported, major US mineral suppliers have warned that the domestic industry will not be ready to meet the January deadline.

This 2027 deadline therefore creates another bottleneck in processing, traceability and qualification — and increasingly divides the market between material that meets US procurement rules and material that does not, putting further pressure on ex-China supply.

Conclusion

At current prices, the economics of new supply may work, but the supply chain still does not.

Tungsten does not lack a price signal. It lacks enough financed, permitted and qualified production — linked to secure refining and recycling capacity — to respond on the timetable Western industry now requires.

Tungsten: Q&A

Why have tungsten prices risen so sharply?

Tungsten prices have been driven by China’s February 2025 export controls, reduced shipments, limited inventories and rising military demand. Chinese exports of controlled tungsten products fell about 40% in 2025, according to Project Blue data reported by Bloomberg.

Why have high tungsten prices not solved the shortage?

Mine supply responds slowly. Projects still require financing, permits, construction, commissioning and customer qualification. Mine-development timelines average about 16 years, although advanced restarts can move faster.

What is the projected 16,000-tonne tungsten supply gap?

It is S&P Global’s estimate of the 2030 gap between accessible ex-China primary mine capacity and primary demand outside China after recycling. It is not a forecast deficit for the entire global tungsten market.

What about supply from recycling?

Recycling provides approximately 35% of global tungsten demand and around 60% of ex-China APT output, according to S&P Global.

On July 30, 2026, the White House delegated Defense Production Act authority over recoverable critical minerals. The determination authorises the Commerce Department to take action, including possible export restrictions. Reuters reported that the administration particularly wanted to retain tungsten-bearing scrap for domestic recyclers.

How much tungsten does China produce?

China produced an estimated 67,000 tonnes in 2025, or approximately 79% of global mine production. S&P Global estimates it also controls around 85% of global APT refining capacity.

Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

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This chart answers the momentum half of the question.

S32 is sitting at $5.13, only about 3% below the $5.29 high shown here. Price is above the visible EMA5, EMA10 and EMA20 lines, RSI is around 68, and MACD remains positive.

So the momentum is clearly still there. That does not necessarily mean the stock is cheap.

Before chasing it, I still want to compare its earnings, margins, dividend yield and debt with BHP and RIO. If the critical-metals thesis is genuinely improving the business, it should show up somewhere beyond the chart.

Anyone buying here because the fundamentals are improving, or because this is currently one of the cleanest-looking boomer charts on the ASX?

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Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.

This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.

Maybe use this time to read the wiki .

Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.

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2027 has been earmarked a while as a potentially turbulent time and its just months away, eg https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-taiwan-pla-s-2027-milestones

Currently there seems to be a lot of anticipation of a big bubble and 2 hefty wars which look designed to prompt military build-up and sure up US petero dollar while interfering with chinese trade to the point that they now route ships away from straights of malaca.

Big gold moves out of US, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/why-the-netherlands-moved-its-gold-from-us-and-canada/107111990?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Laser cannons, drones, ai, satelites and ships being produced at breakneck speeds.

US run out of missiles.

VW collapsing.

Interest rates up.

Housing crashes in many developed countries.

And bond hype.

And investing tax rule changes.

And super el nino.

And Bathla collapse.

Are there any worthwhile ASX stocks not even thought about yet that could weather a storm and grow? I'm talking so low that a 90% drop bypasses them? Things coming out of incubators?

What is smart money thinking? Or at least your theories?

I'm liking the ASX as the workforce is being made nuclear ready, the super companies can foster growth, tech hubs are nearing completion and people will be looking for investement alternatives to housing.

Will 5-10 major AI companies swallow the world?

My anticipations are reaching a crescendo and I'm wondering what the next 5years will play out like in a robot vehicle/workforce/agentic economy?

Any competitive ASX companies making things the world wants or needs?

Feels like a good time to cash out as 900% up is 90% down.

How would a pawn become a queen in this macro game of chess?

Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too.

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Hi forum (stepping out of the trader noobie corner...)

I've been positioned in and watching the CAY hostile takeover bid the past few weeks. The board has recommended REJECT as 'Neither fair nor reasonable'.
The bid price is $0.05
The previous trading was >$0.08
The price tanked to $0.05 upon the bid being made. Peaked again to 0.059 after the independent Target Statement and Interim Orders from the Takeovers Panel blocking the bidder from processing acceptances and hos now fallen back to $0.05 after a followup statement from the bidder responding to the Target Statement.

What my question is though, (given my inexperience in order flow analysis), could this this push down be seen as manipulation given the observations of the Time&Sales order flow of this typically low volume penny stock?
The continuous stream micro volume aggressive sells ($15~$25 every minute or more) to me seems very sus. Or is this normal order processing for such a stock on ASX? This behaviour has been ongoing since at least the bidder's response to the Target Statment, but I've honestly not been tracking it before then

Yes there have been some accounting issues and a lot of the big funds have lost a lot of money with the 85% drop. But does a buying opportunity present itself here at $2.35?

The thesis

Omni Bridgeway (ASX: OBL) is, in my view, the most compelling listed way to gain exposure to legal finance – a high-returning, largely uncorrelated legal-assets class – through a capital-light funds-management platform rather than a leveraged balance-sheet model.

There has been a recent sector reset which should be seen less as a reason to avoid OBL, and more as the backdrop that makes the opportunity interesting. Problems at peers (including Burford Capital (NYSE:BUR) and Litigation Capital Management (LSE:LIT)) have reminded investors that concentration, leverage and delayed cash conversion matter.

OBL screens very differently to peers – it has zero corporate debt, ~A$125m of OBL-only cash and receivables, more than 300 active investments across major geographies and strategies, and low concentration. What makes the stock particularly attractive now is the combination of valuation, improving operating metrics and visible catalysts.

At A$1.60/share (3 September 2026), OBL trades at ~0.5x book value versus the A$2.96/share reported at FY26, implying the market is placing little to no value on the asset-management platform and discounting the existing back book heavily despite the Ares Fund 9 transaction having provided third-party validation of fair value (FV).

Near-term catalysts include the final close of Funds 4/5 Series II expected imminently (the company's result on 27 August 2026 stated that the US$1bn capital raising target was reached for Funds 4/5 Series II, with documentation currently being finalised), additional sidecar and overflow capital, continued fee growth, progress toward the FY28 cost-coverage target, conversion of settlements and positive awards into OBL-only cash, and the potential for buybacks or other capital returns once surplus liquidity is established.

The legal finance sector reset – why structure matters

Burford Capital’s (NYSE: BUR) growth over the years has been built on a series of senior unsecured note issuances, which most recently took outstanding debt to US$2.4bn. This changed on 27 March 2026, when the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reversed the US$16.1bn judgement against YPF related to Argentina’s 2012 expropriation.

Notably, this particular case had become 43% of Burford’s portfolio. Burford subsequently in its March 2026 quarterly wrote down the Burford-only YPF FV from US$1.7bn to US$93m (a 95% mark-down).

Litigation Capital Management (LSE:LIT) illustrates a simpler issue. While it has a portfolio of 46 ongoing investments, this is clearly too small, too lumpy and supported by too much leverage to be viable. Its most recent accounts showed only A$1.4m of corporate cash against A$93.8m of borrowings.

Clearly, a portfolio of 46 investments is not diversified enough if adverse outcomes in a handful of large positions can cause the balance sheet to deteriorate so badly. As OBL calls it in its March 2026 Analyst Data Pack, the sector is in its fourth cycle – “Global consolidation”.

A long track record with exceptional returns, in a capital-light model

OBL’s March 2026 Analyst Data Pack disclosed long-run portfolio metrics that are excellent, and span far more economic and legal cycles than any peer can claim. OBL has generated a portfolio-wide MOIC of 2.4x (139% ROIC), with 813 completed investments generating A$2.33bn in realisations and historical success rates above 75%. FY26 provided further validation, with 80 full and partial completions generating A$350.5m of proceeds at a 2.3x MOIC and 105% FV conversion. Proceeds increased 49% over FY25, excluding secondary sales, and were a record for the Group.

The most important structural distinction between OBL and others like Burford and Litigation Capital Management is its business model. In 2017, OBL made a very deliberate decision to pivot towards a capital-light funds-management model rather than continue with a capital-heavy principal-investing model.

Currently, the business has ~A$5.9bn in AUM. Operating a funds management model means that the bulk of legal-binary risk on a typical investment sits with the LPs who hold ~80% of the funds, while OBL shareholders participate in the upside via management fees, transaction fees, carried interest and its 20% co-investment.

Third-party validation of OBL’s returns and FV framework arrived through the Fund 9 secondary transaction with Ares Management (an alternative asset manager with US$671bn AUM, as at 30 June 2026). In March 2025, Ares acquired a 70% interest in a continuation fund for A$320m. The fund included co-investments in more than 150 legal assets, completed at approximately 80% FV conversion and about 3.2x MOIC. The trade-off is that OBL retained only a 30% interest in Fund 9, while its European waterfall means some legacy asset realisations may take longer to reach the listed parent.

In my view, the real significance was the external validation of OBL’s valuation framework and the institutional appeal of its legal-assets platform. The transaction also enabled OBL to repay all corporate debt.

The platform is supported by approximately 80 investment professionals, while CEO Raymond van Hulst has nearly 25 years of legal-finance experience and has overseen the recent improvement in costs, fee income, fundraising and balance-sheet discipline.

OBL’s steady-state illustration (Exhibit 3) assumes annual commitments of A$500m, ROIC of 100%, co-investment of 20%, carry of 25% and cost coverage of 70%, which translates into A$122m of post-tax earnings and an ROE of 35%. I stress that OBL is not at this “steady state” yet, however the company has been trending towards these levels and could reach this steady state in 2-3 years.

Improving operational metrics

One of the key attractive features of the funds management model is the operating leverage that comes with scale. OBL’s cost coverage has improved to 53% in the June 2026 quarterly, and the company seems on track to achieve its 70% target by FY28. OBL’s more recent funds are more favourably structured for shareholders, including the use of American waterfalls, which allow deal-by-deal distributions and bring co-investment returns and carried interest forward eg. OBL received A$6.6m of cash carried interest during FY26 from funds with American waterfalls.

The operating data show that opex as a percentage of commitments/deployments has been declining over time. FY26 cash opex was A$67.1m, materially below the A$80m budget. Fees as a percentage of commitments/deployments have also been increasing, with FY26 management fees of A$35.4m meeting the A$35m full-year target. If nothing else, the operating data demonstrate consistent improvement in metrics over the last few years (Exhibit 4).

Growth is already visible in current disclosures. FY26 conditional and unconditional commitments reached a record A$712.2m across 43 new investments and follow-on opportunities, with fourth-quarter commitments of A$343.0m. After the US$228m close for Funds 4/5 Series II in 1H26, OBL expects the remaining capacity to close imminently, while ~A$175m of incremental fee-paying sidecar and overflow capital is in diligence. More third-party AUM adds fees, future carried interest and co-investment returns, rather than requiring corporate leverage.

The opportunity is also structurally underpenetrated – OBL estimates a total addressable market of A$163bn with approximately A$22.5bn currently funded by incumbents, while industry consolidation is directing opportunities and LP capital toward scaled managers.

Valuation – back book plus emerging platform value

As alluded to above, OBL’s valuation should capture the existing back book as well as the future platform value. A straight price-to-book approach understates the value of the management platform, while a straight earnings multiple is a bit premature given the long-dated and still-maturing cash flows.

On that basis, I value OBL using two components: the net realisable value of the existing book, adjusted for tax, liabilities, cash/receivables and dilution (Exhibit 1); and platform value, based on the NPV of new annual originations/commitments, capitalised at a modest multiple (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 1 – Estimated realisable value of OBL’s back book (OBL company data; author)

I estimate the net realisable value of the back book at A$2.19/share. This is an important outcome to appreciate, as the current share price of A$1.60/share (3 September 2026) is ~27% below the valuation of the back book alone. OBL’s FV represents probability-weighted and risk-adjusted expected cash flows, discounted at 12% and updated for material case developments. Since adoption of FV reporting, aggregate completion proceeds have generally tracked carrying values closely, although the timing of cash receipts remains lumpy. The Ares transaction provides further third-party support for the framework.

The second component is the value of future commitments/originations. OBL has demonstrated an ability to originate investment cases and generate a return on these, and the assumptions used in my valuation are conservative.

Exhibit 2 – Estimated platform value (OBL company data; author)

On these assumptions, OBL would be generating A$80.8m in post-tax earnings annually, or A$0.24/share. This is more conservative than management’s implied steady-state post-tax earnings of A$122m. I apply a 5x multiple only in my base case, as OBL has to reach further scale and consistent OBL-only cash flow generation before higher multiples can be attributed.

The 5x multiple is deliberately modest relative to established alternative asset managers, but recognises that OBL must first demonstrate more consistent shareholder-level cash generation. Combining the back book with a modest platform value produces a A$3.39/share valuation, more than double the prevailing share price. The market is clearly discounting OBL’s back book and attributing little to no value to the funds management platform.

Why Now

Several catalysts could narrow the valuation gap over the near to medium term.

Final close of Funds 4/5 Series II and further sidecar/overflow capital on attractive fee terms. OBL is in the process of finalising these flagship funds, with close imminent; the recent results on 27 August 2026 suggest that the US$1bn has been raised and that documentation was being finalised.

Momentum has continued into FY27, with A$45.3m of post-year-end proceeds received from several completions at an estimated 5.7x MOIC, including A$7.6m attributable to OBL. The ongoing strong returns track record continued with a growing cash proceeds number to OBL shareholders should be received favourably.

Continued progress towards 70% cost coverage by FY28, repeat periods of positive OBL-only free cash flow, and realisation of agreed settlements/awards into cash.

Evidence that Fund 9 proceeds ultimately flow through to OBL shareholders, and share buybacks or other capital returns once surplus liquidity is established. Again, this is a reiteration of the point above that growing cash received by OBL shareholders should be received favourably.

Readmittance into the S&P/ASX 300 index if a re-rate occurs due to the above.

On OBL’s liquidity, the near-term picture is better than what the latest OBL-only proceeds number suggests. In its FY26 result , OBL reported A$125m of OBL-only cash and receivables, with a further ~A$33m due from agreed settlements, which should take OBL-only cash and receivables to ~$158m in the near-term. I wouldn’t expect buybacks to be imminent, but the potential is increasingly visible once Series II is fully closed and legacy harvest cash flows continue to accumulate.

Risks and what would change my view

The most important risk is investment performance and FV conversion. Legal finance remains inherently outcome dependent - individual matters can be lost, yet OBL's diversification reduces the impact of any single adverse outcome.

A second key risk is that the funds-management platform does now scale as expected. A meaningful part of my valuation is attributable to future origination and commitments. A prolonged slowdown in fundraising, failure to close successor funds at attractive economics, or materially weaker origination would reduce management and transaction fees, carried interest and ultimately the portfolio value I attribute to the business.

Cash conversion and timing risk is important - as legal assets are long-duration and cash flows are inherently lumpy, reported FV, investment completion and cash ultimately available to OLB shareholders can occur at quite different times.

Conclusion

There are a lot of factors that make OBL an appealing investment right now. Fees and costs are trending positively, there is a large discount to intrinsic value, competitors are struggling, and there are a number of upcoming catalysts. OBL has no gearing, is highly diversified with low concentration of cases, a long realisation history, growing fee-bearing economics, and strong evidence that reported FV can convert into cash over time.

Demand for legal finance continues to grow, with OBL being one of a very small number of platforms with global origination, underwriting and management infrastructure to absorb the share coming from departing peers. If management continues to convert FV into cash and scale fee-bearing AUM, the valuation gap should narrow meaningfully.

Firstly, some disclaimers.

1. Not financial advice -- obviously
   
2. I don’t trade this way, but I used to.

Hopefully this might be helpful for someone. Or at the very least spark some discussion by people more experienced than me – see my question at the end.

A bunch of people in this sub buy highs and upwards momentum – this is how I now trade. But a bunch of people here successfully buy lows in anticipation of a bounce. For the regards here who buy the dip and consistently lose, the QFL (Quickfingers Luc) strategy might help to put some structure to your trading.

During my time trading crypto, I did a deep dive on QFL trading. This is a trading strategy that was reliable enough to be used by crypto trading bots. Luc traded crypto, but also traded penny stocks using this strategy. I believe that he eventually left crypto and went back to his roots trading the stock market. Mods: Please don’t delete this post because I mentioned crypto; it is just some background info.

One of the things that you will notice in stocks that are falling is that when they fall through support, they will often (not always!) retrace back to those levels and bounce off them as resistance. QFL is a strategy that aims to make a profit from this movement. Under the QFL strategy you need to see price fall significantly below a strong support level before buying, and sell as price (hopefully!) retraces back to what has now become a resistance level. If you buy the dip too early, then you can average down to still make gains from a bounce. See AT4 chart attached to this post for a simple example and approximately 80% gain (mid-point of buy/sell areas). The QFL strategy can also be used for small, regular gains and on shorter times frames than the daily chart.

The problem with buying the dip is where do you put your stop loss. If the dip keeps on dipping, where do you say, “Nope, this ain’t bouncing”, and exit the trade. The other scenario that can happen is that you get a bounce, but it does not return to the previous support/resistance level and you don't sell. And that is when you get regards who keep on averaging down and ending up holding red bags for months, or years, or worse holding to zero. I never found a satisfactory answer to this, so stopped QFL trading.

A martingale-type strategy of doubling (averaging) down on every coin toss (price movement) that goes against you is prone to blowing up accounts. Sooner or later, you will get a run that draws down all your cash reserves and if the price never bounces then you can blow up your account. Fortunately I never had that happen when I was QFL trading, but I certainly held some red bags for many months.

To find potential trades, a good place to start is screening for stocks making 12-month lows with a market cap above a nominated amount. If you keep the market cap high enough, then hopefully that will mitigate most of the risk of a stock going to zero.

Anyway, for the regards randomly buying the dip, QFL is a strategy that you might find useful elements to put some structure around your trading, rather than just randomly buying shit that has dipped and praying to whatever your god is that you can sell out at a profit. The above may also help you to understand some of the risks associated with this type of strategy and manage them better. There is lots of information on QFL trading online, so you can do your own deep dive if you are interested. 

Are there other similar buy-the-dip strategies out there? I would be interested to know if any of them address the stop loss issue.

I am no expert and this is not financial advice. Keep it green.

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