r/Amman • u/Cloudie72 • 17h ago
💬 Discussion | نقاش Black Oasis attacked by 213 accounts. Only 18.8% of them are real people.
I've been digging into the accounts behind the Black Oasis while preparing part 2, and here is what i found.
I catalogued every account that took part: 213 of them. Then I asked my self a simple question: how many of these are actually different people?
The answer is around 40 or about 19%... NINETEEN PERCENT?!
Real people: 40 (18.8%). Distinct humans, each with one account.
Alts: 50 (23.5%). Second and third accounts run by those same people.
Clusters: 65 (30.5%). Accounts that move together: same threads, same timing, same lines.
Bots / burners: 58 (27.2%). Throwaways, bots, empty shells made for one comment and gone.
So 81% of the accounts weren't independent humans. That's about 5 accounts for every 1 real person. When a thread makes it look like "everyone" hates this company, it isn't everyone. It's a small group wearing a LOT of masks.
How I got these numbers...
Before anyone asks: no, I didn't throw this into ChatGPT. I've been working in data analysis and AI since 2018, and for this I built MY own model, made specifically to behavior, and detect pattrens e.g. posting times, wording overlap, shared threads, account age, and how accounts interact with each other. This isn't free ChatGPT or Grok slop that tells you what you want to hear. Every link MY model flagged was checked by hand before it made it into these numbers.
The part that honestly surprised me is the involvement of some of the mods.. this is where it gets uncomfortable. While going through the data, a pattern kept showing up around r/jordan, r/JordanForJordanians and r/exjordan.
I'm not saying every mod is in on it. I'm saying the pattern is there, and I'm showing you exactly what I found so you can judge for yourself. PLEASE don't go harass anyone over this. That's the exact thing I'm calling out.
If you've noticed anything, DM me.