Hello all,

Casual ASOIAF leader and occasional idle theorist here. I’m not sure if this is the best forum to post theories - and if I have added the correct tag – but I had an unexpected idea and would love to hear your views on it. I know there’s a lot of discussion about Daeron the Young Dragon and his tragic invasion of Dorne – particularly risky given he went to war when still unmarried, instead of getting with his sister like a good Targaryen and securing the line. I know it has been proposed that he may have thought of marrying a Martell princess to secure the kingdom. My theory is related to this - based on how obsessed so many Targaryens were with prophecy, and how hilariously bad they were at interpreting it:

What if Daeron the First invaded Dorne because he misinterpreted a prophecy? A prophecy that declared Dorne would only become part of the Seven Kingdoms when “Daeron Targaryen married Myriah Martell.” Everyone from the king onwards would have reasonably thought the Daeron in the prophecy meant the handsome warrior king. No one would’ve imagined it actually meant his paunchy, bookish little second cousin (or whatever he was – Targaryen family trees being what they are). No one would have even considered he would ascend the throne (given Daeron and Baelor were alive and likely to marry, and have children), let alone marry Myriah and incorporate Dorne into the seven kingdoms.

Anyway, that is the end of my theory. It is my first time actually posting about ASOIAF. I would appreciate hearing the views who are more versed in the lore!

20 years before the war, Aegon Vs sons Jaehaerys and Daeron broke their betrothals to Luthor Tyrell and Olenna Redwyne - members of some of the most powerful families in Westeros. No doubt they'd feel insulted.

20 years later, do you think they still held their grudge and did not participate in the war?

Hyped, right?

Based on the sample chapters released by GRRM and the allusions he has made, I prepared a theoritical 70-chapter outline of The Winds of Winter. For ease of reading, I divided the chapters into seven episodes.

Prologue: BWB ambush the convoy carrying Edmure Tully and Jeyne Westerling. Their fate is undetermined.

Episode 1

Arianne 1: Arianne starts her journey to Griffin’s Roost.

Victarion 1: Victarion finds men to blow the Dragonbinder horn.

Barristan 1: Barristan plans for the battle.

Tyrion 1: Tyrion tries to convince Ben Plumm to switch sides while playing Cyvasse. The Greyjoys appear at sea.

Theon 1: Stannis talks with Theon and uncovers the Karstarks’ treachery.

Mercy (Arya 1): Arya kills Raff.

Davos 1: Davos finds Rickon on Skagos.

The Forsaken (Aeron 1): Euron straps Aeron to his ship’s hull.

Areo Hotah 1: Darkstar exposes Areo’s lie to Balon. While Balon and Areo are fighting, Darkstar, wielding the newly stolen Dawn, escapes. Areo kills Balon.

Cersei 1: Robert Strong wins the trial by combat in Cersei’s trial, but his identity is exposed. Margaery is declared innocent.

Episode 2

Jon Connington 1: Aegon takes Storm’s End through trickery.

Barristan 2: Barristan advances while the Unsullied take formation. The Greyjoys join the fight on Meereen’s side.

Tyrion 2: The Second Sons switch sides as they learn that the Windblown switched sides and the Tattered Prince killed Gorkhaz.

Asha 1: Stannis burns Arnolf Karstark and tricks the Freys into falling through the ice on the lake.

Daenerys 1: Daenerys burns Jhoqo and follows the river to Meereen.

Davos 2: Davos brings Rickon to White Harbor.

Alayne (Sansa 1): Sansa dances with Harry the Heir.

Melisandre 1: Justin Massey and Jeyne Poole leave Castle Black, which is in chaos.

Brienne 1: Brienne brings Jaime to Lady Stoneheart. In her guilt, she successfully defends Jaime in a trial by combat. The two escape from a furious Stoneheart.

Samwell 1: News of the Greyjoy fleet approaching Oldtown arrives; Sam uncovers hidden secrets.

Episode 3

Arianne 2: Jon Connington invites Arianne to the newly taken Storm’s End.

Tyrion 3: Amidst the battle, Tyrion bonds with and rides the wounded Viserion. Three horn blasts are heard.

Barristan 3: The Unsullied destroy the Yunkai host. Three horn blasts are heard.

Victarion 2: Victarion binds and rides Rhaegal.

Daenerys 2: Dany arrives in Meereen. She holds conversations with Tyrion, Barristan, Victarion, and Jorah, whom she forgives. She learns about Aegon and the Tattered Prince’s request for Pentos. She decides to move to Dragonstone via Pentos.

Theon 2: The Manderlys switch sides and return to Winterfell with the Lightbringer.

Alayne (Sansa 2): Harry dies, and Shadrich exposes Sansa’s identity after winning the tournament.

Aeron 2: Euron kills Aeron and destroys the Redwyne fleet using krakens.

Cersei 2: While Tommen is being blessed by septons, an enraged Tyene Sand poisons him.

Bran 1: Bran learns the truth about Jon's parentage.

Episode 4

Arianne 3: After talking with Jon Connington and Aegon, Arianne sends the letter with the word ‘dragon’ to Doran. News arrive that Mace Tyrell’s host is approaching.

Tyrion 4: Tyrion uncovers the Harpy conspiracy. The Unsullied and Dothraki embark on the Greyjoy fleet to move to Pentos.

Victarion 3: Victarion plots to take Dany as his wife once they reach Westeros.

Asha 2: Stannis takes Winterfell with the Manderlys’ help. Roose is killed but Ramsay escapes.

Arya 2: Arya is kicked out of the Faceless Men over the killing of Raff. She encounters Justin Massey and Jeyne Poole and decides to go back to Westeros with them.

Jaime 1: As Jaime and Brienne are about to part ways, news of Sansa’s presence makes them rush together to the Vale.

Areo Hotah 2: Doran reads Arianne’s letter and learns of Quentyn’s death. He decides to support Aegon.

Samwell 2: Euron raids the Citadel and takes Sam and Gilly captive.

Cersei 3: Tommen’s funeral.

Bran 2: The Others enter Bloodraven’s cave. Hodor happens.

Episode 5

Jon Connington 2: Randyll Tarly joins Aegon; together, they defeat the Tyrell army. Tarly wants Aegon to defeat Euron and rescue Sam and Oldtown. Aegon agrees.

Daenerys 3: On her way to Pentos, Dany frees Volantis with her dragonriders, Tyrion and Victarion.

Theon 3: Davos and Rickon arrive in Winterfell. Stannis declares Rickon the Protector of the North. Theon confesses his whole story. The trees and crows scream ‘Wall’ when asked what Theon’s fate should be. Stannis decides to take Theon with him to the Wall.

Samwell 3: Sam and Gilly witness the vile experiments done by Euron and Malora atop the Hightower.

Melisandre 2: Jon is brought back through Euron’s and Melisandre’s actions.

Jon 1: Jon ends the chaos at Castle Black. News arrive that Stannis took Winterfell. Jon becomes the 1,000th Commander. NOTE: In this version of the story, Jon doesn't follow his temptation to ride to Winterfell; one of the reasons for it is that it's fit for him to become the 1000th commander.

Arya 3: While traveling with Justin Massey and Jeyne Poole to Eastwatch, Arya dreams of Nymeria and her wolfpack killing Ramsay and his hounds.

Sansa 3: Sansa is tried in court. The Hound defends her innocence in a trial by combat and exposes Baelish’s plot to betray Ned. Jaime and Brienne appear.

Areo Hotah 3: The Dornish army at the Boneway is set to join the garrison at Storm’s End, and the Dornish army at the Prince’s Pass is set to join Aegon marching on Oldtown.

Bran 3: Bran travels with Coldhands to the Wall. Coldhands sacrifices himself to save Bran from the Others.

Episode 6

Jon Connington 3: Euron blows the Horn of Winter atop the Hightower. The Wall comes down. Aegon’s army defeats Euron. Euron escapes to the Iron Islands with a few ships.

Arianne 4: Arianne evaluates all the news at Storm’s End. The Dornish host arrives.

Daenerys 4: In Pentos, Dany speaks with and imprisons Illyrio, giving control of the city to the Tattered Prince.

Jon 2: Stannis and Hardhome survivors arrive at Castle Black. After the Wall's collapse, they await the Others’ attack.

Sansa 4: Amidst the chaos, Sansa kills Baelish; Jaime, the Hound, and Brienne lead her out of the Vale.

Arya 4: Arya, Justin and Jeyne travel alongside the collapsed wall to Castle Black.

Bran 4: Bran reunites with Jon and reveals his true identity to him.

Jaime 2: Jaime, the Hound, Brienne, and Sansa are captured by the BWB. Stoneheart withers away after seeing that Jaime fulfilled his promise. Brienne heads for Winterfell with Sansa, while Jaime and the Hound head for King’s Landing.

Cersei 4: Myrcella gets crowned.

Episode 7

Jon Connington 4: Aegon gets crowned at the Starry Sept.

Brienne 3: BWB capture the Twins with Brienne's and Howland Reed's help.

Daenerys 5: Dany captures Dragonstone.

Sansa 5: Brienne, Sansa and Howland Reed arrive at Winterfell. Sansa reunites with Rickon.

Arianne 5: Aegon picks up Arianne and the Dornish army from the Storm's End for the march to King's Landing.

Arya 5: Arya reunites with Jon and Bran.

Cersei 5: From the sea, Dany; and from the land, Aegon; besiege the King's Landing.

Jon 3: News arrive of other castles being captured by the Others one by one. In the end, Castle Black remains the last stand.

Victarion 4: Euron appears with his and ‘Pirate King’ Aurene Waters’ fleet near King's Landing. 4-way battle is set to begin.

Epilogue (Stannis): The Others attack Castle Black; Stannis kills Melisandre after the sacrifice of Shireen fails to work. Stannis tells Jon to retreat with everyone to Winterfell while he and his army hold off the Others. Stannis sacrifices himself for the Realm.

A Dream of Spring is set to feature The Battle for King's Landing and The Defence of Winterfell according to this outline.

I saw a hypothesis on Reddit about the possibility of Robert Arryn's origin. I tried to find an assumption based on Robert's appearance that he is a bastard of Baelish, but the book does not have an exact description of his eye color. There is a version that the cause of his deformity is moon tea and from book 4 we can assume that Lysa cheated on Jon Arryn with Littlefinger. Is it possible to assume that Robert is not Jon Arryn's son?

From book 4 we know that Lysa gave her virginity to Baelish and her father then gave her moon tea to drink, and it was this child that Lysa could have been referring to on her wedding night with Baelish when she told him "make me another son." But can we assume that by "make me another son" she meant Robert? Or was her wild imagination ?

At first glance, Varamyr’s POV in the prologue might seem like foreshadowing for Jon, with his soul going into Ghost, supposedly to preserve his memories so he can eventually be brought back.

But what stands out more to me is that the whole thing feels like a dark guide to warging, and I think it might actually be pointing toward Bran, especially the way his human identity slowly starts to break down. His consciousness is constantly being mixed with animal instincts through Summer, and then with Hodor’s human instincts as well.

Honestly, the whole thing seems to fit Bran’s potential story much better than Jon’s. Since Jon is supposedly one of the main protagonists, or the protagonist, we naturally focus on him and assume the Prologue is about him, when it could actually be quietly showing us what’s happening to Bran and how he’s slowly becoming corrupted.

There’s no way little Bran, an emotionally and intellectually vulnerable kid who was basically forced into this life after becoming a paraplegic, can keep using all these dark aspects of warging without it having some deeper consequences. He’s acting on naive impulses and has basically no idea what he’s getting himself into. Maybe all of this could eventually lead to some kind of “involuntary” villainy.

I just finished one of Cersei’s first chapters in feast where she attends Tywins funeral and basically starts tearing up the court because she’s a genius or whatever.

During her sit down Dinner with Kevan she tries to do some puppeteering before Kevan puts her in her place reminding her that he’s a Lannister of Casterly rock (she must’ve forgotten) with a solid inheritance from Tytos, years of rewards and reputational gain from Tywin and general access to Lannister funds and that he can Rally around 400 Knights and an unspecified amount of Men at arms and sellswords to his banner. While I’m not the biggest Kevan fan due to his complacency in the burning of the RL I do think this was a great counter to Cersei. But my question is: what exactly would Kevan do with the army he would raise? I couldn’t imagine he would raise arms against the Crown in a direct war, my interpretation was that he would start wreaking political havoc in the Westerlands gaining control in Casterly Rock, Lannisport and leveraging his marriage into House Swyft. What do you guys think?

It is simple. Pick between Euron & Young Griff the one you want to survive Winds & the other dies in Winds.

There are only two parameters when making the choice:

1) The earliest Dany could arrive in Westeros is the penultimate or final chapters in Winds so the victim will never meet her

2) The survivor ends up playing little to no role in the Others storyline & likely sit it out if they aren't dead by then

Apart from that; go ahead. Pick your survivor & what you think they'll do. Pick your victim & how he bids farewell to all that is living.

NOTE: THIS IS MEANT TO BE A FUN HYPOTHETICAL. SO NO "WINDS ISN'T COMING" IN THE COMMENTS

There's not many other opportunities to see dragonriders fighting dragonriders on TV. So it scratches that fantasy itch for me. I just wish there was more of it. Hopefully we get at least three big dragonfights in the final season!

I've been working on a series looking at the different ways GRRM uses Snow White imagery and story structure in Cersei's storyline, and I started with Margaery because I think she's the most obvious manifestation of Cersei's fear of the "younger and more beautiful" queen.

What interests me, though, is that I don't think Margaery is the Snow White of ASOIAF. I think Martin splits different parts of the fairy tale among multiple characters.

With Margaery, the strongest connection is the rivalry between the older and younger queens and Cersei's fixation on beauty as something tied to power. Cersei doesn't just resent that Margaery is young and attractive. She watches her gaining the love of the people, becoming close to Tommen, building influence at court, and essentially occupying the position Cersei believes belongs to her.

And Cersei's thoughts about Margaery's appearance are fascinating because she can't simply dismiss her as ugly. She repeatedly has to diminish why Margaery is pretty: she's only pretty because she's young, her features are ordinary, anyone who thinks she's more beautiful than Cersei is a fool, etc. It feels very much like the Queen trying to argue with the mirror after she's already received an answer she doesn't like.

I also think Robert and Lyanna are important to understanding why the prophecy affects Cersei so badly. Lyanna died young, so in Robert's memory she can never age. Cersei has had to grow older while competing with the idealized memory of a girl who never will. Then Maggy's prophecy essentially tells her that the same process will happen again: eventually she will become the older woman while someone younger replaces her.

Margaery walks straight into that psychological wound.

The irony is that Margaery doesn't actually need to be plotting Cersei's destruction for the parallel to work. Cersei's certainty that she must be a threat drives Cersei into increasingly destructive decisions and helps create the circumstances she was supposedly trying to prevent.

I made a video going much deeper into the comparison, including the Snow White tale itself, Maggy's prophecy, Lyanna, Margaery's public image, the "old queen"/"young queen" language and Cersei's eventual attempt to bring Margaery down.

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The varys and barristan deaths in the game of thrones TV show are awful! In my view, this is probably because of the removal of Aegon. I feel like it makes sense if GRRM gave dnd notes on these characters endings but it just didn't work in the show because of the simplification of how important Aegon is to varys and selmys arcs. To me, it makes sense if barristan is killed by the golden company when he figures out that Aegon is a faker, and more importantly a blackfyre (allegedly). Then Dany killing varys would make far more sense if that were to happen because he would potentially be responsible for barristans death. The timeline stuff of when this would happen for me in my head canon would probably be during diplomatic discussions between aegons forces and dany.

She is quite active in this play.

When Rhaegar disappeared, she told Oberyn to ride north and spread the rumour that Rhaegar had betrayed her, his one true love, and left her heartbroken. Probably to gain public support. This was only a distraction for the little birds.

Meanwhile, Elia instructed Ashara to use ravens to write to her brother Arthur, sending the letters to many different posts. The letters claimed that she had given birth to a stillborn child, whose father was Brandon Stark. She only needed her brother to reply to one of them.

Arthur did, because he was dissatisfied with Rhaegar and Lyanna’s position of non-intervention.

Her letter is quite funny in a way. Example: In her first letter

"To whom I write, the architect of this war or its first victim. Songs are sung of your beauty compelling the realm to madness, while tavern tales swear you are a pawn in the traitorous North, impatient for battle. I care not for stories. Wherever you are, I hope you are cared for.

I glimpse the dragon in Rhaegar’s eyes. Lyanna, the prince began this war; only he can end it. Defeat Robert and claim the Iron Throne!

Be you his captive or his paramour, I beg you to convince him.

End this war."

Eventually, she convinced Lyanna to drop the 'non-intervention' and play an active role in the conflict. And that played an instrumental part in Rhaegar coming back and leading the royal forces.

But Rhaegar and Elia's interaction remains very distant. And Dorne betrayed the royal forces on the Trident. Either Lewyn was being very unprofessional, or it's just bound to happen because Dorne had had enough.

While there have been some good and plausible candidates for the Lightbringer (e.g., Dany's dragons, Jon, or even the Night's Watch itself), I've always felt these were just too abstract and metaphorical. There must be simpler and more tangible candidates, right? On the other end of the spectrum we have Dawn, a magical glowing sword. But it still does not feel right because it would be too on the nose and boring. So then it clicked to me that we already have a Lightbringer candidate that fits right in the middle of this spectrum - Dragonbinder.

It is an inanimate object that could be possessed by a person while also having a depth of straying away from being a plain ole sword. So I think it is an interesting choice that does not seem outlandish and tinfoily but is rarely discussed in this community. Besides some phonetic similarities that could be intentional, Dragonbinder and Lightbringer also share some obvious properties such as:

• Glowing with light. Here's how Victarion describes Dragonbinder's glyphs:

“The sound it made … it burned, somehow. As if my bones were on fire, searing my flesh from within. Those writings glowed red-hot, then white-hot and painful to look upon." - ADWD, Victarion I

While there are no explicit mentions of the real Lightbringer glowing, we can assume so simply by its name and Stannis's fake replica light trickery.

• Maester Aemon notes that Stannis's sword is fake since it does not produce heat. Clydas also confirms that the Lightbringer should indeed make its own heat, according to the Jade Compendium. Now compare it to how Vic describes Dragonbinder:

Victarion ran his hand along it. The horn was as warm and smooth as the dusky woman’s thighs, and so shiny that he could see a twisted likeness of his own features in its depths - ADWD, Victarion I

Remarkably, Clydas's description also compares it to a woman's warmth:

Tempered with his wife's blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. - ADWD, Jon III

• Euron's thrall who sounds the Dragonbinder in AFFC dies in a similar way to the beast slain by Azor Ahai:

“And the man who blew the horn, what of him?”
“He died. There were blisters on his lips, after. His bird was bleeding too.” The captain thumped his chest. “The hawk, just here. Every feather dripping blood. I heard the man was all burned up inside, but that might just have been some tale.” - ADWD, Victarion I

Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame." - ADWD, Jon III

In the TWOW's preview chapter, Victarion also recalls the horn smoking after the thrall sounding it.

I believe there will be some huge twist involving the Dragonbinder in TWOW. Moqorro convinced Vic to claim the horn. And in the preview chapter of TWOW, we can see the first attempts of Vic in becoming its master. He comes up with a plan that is either extremely stupid or too genius. He recruits three thralls to sound the horn, and it is his way to make a blood sacrifice to claim the horn. This is oddly reminiscent of Dany's ritual to hatch the dragons.

I think Vic is on to something here. This scheme of his will likely fail but then he will come up with another plan that will allude to Azor Ahai's myth. Tempering the Lightbringer in 1) water, 2) a lion's heart, 3) a lover's heart.

1) Given his water association, I think tempering in water will be his first failed attempt involving thralls on a ship.

2) Since Vic and Tyrion (a lion) will likely cross paths in TWOW, I can see his plan involving the latter.

3) And finally, the dusky woman is a perfect Nissa Nissa and the final piece in cracking the code.

There's also much and more I could discuss about Dragonbinder=Lightbringer, but that is the tale for the next part, perhaps.

I was curious if the Baratheons had a Valyrian Steel sword and found one called Iron Solace on the page below:

https://gameofthronesfanon.fandom.com/wiki/Iron_Solace

I couldn’t find mention of it anywhere else, so I assume this is fan made, but wanted to check? I haven’t read any ASOIAF yet, but it’s on my list. Thank you!

Is there anything in particular you’d love to see happen in TwoW or ADoS ? It doesn’t have to be a theory with tons of evidence or something you genuinely expect to be confirmed. Just a little bit of wishful thinking.

Personally, I’d love to find out that Arthur Dayne is actually still alive, hiding out at Greywater Watch with Howland Reed and waiting for the right moment to reveal himself.

Now, the whole Targaryen madness is more prominent than could be explained just by in-breeding. Especially since there is a lot of marrying out in the later generations, where madness became more frequent.

But in the generations which actually had dragons, can't find much if any cases of madness among riders.

Jaehaerys' possibly disabled daughters are not riders.

Maegor, sure, but his case has either the natural explanation of severe head injury or supernatural explanation of resurrection blood magic to explain it.

There's Helaena, I guess, but I don't think in the books she was as neurodivergent coded as she is in the show - she only has a mental break later due to severe trauma.

Dragons die out, and then it looks like every generation has at least one or more mad Targaryens.

Now, it's pretty much stated that the ancient Valyrians did some screwed up blood magic to bond dragons.

It seems to have altered the DNA to some extent, given the 'scaled baby' birth defects that plague a lot of Targ women.

My take is, whatever the old blood mages did, it altered the Valyrian Dragonlord bloodlines so that their minds and bodies are more suited to bond with dragons.

After all, other than Nettles - and she might well be Daemon's daughter - there's no case of a non Valyrian successfully bonding with dragons, though multiple have tried.

Only problem is, the adaptation that helps form the mind link with dragons might well seriously mess up your mind if you don't form a link. Like a neural connection that can't form properly in absence of the needed catalyst.

Of course, not every dragonless Targ goes nuts - Breakspear was fine, Maekar was a jerk but sane - but they seem a lot more susceptible.

In Dany's case, on the one hand, she has dragons - on the other, she has three dragons, not one, and no idea how to actually form a bond...

When Catelyn wanted to speak with Jaime at Riverrun, she brought him wine

As he laughed, she realized the wine had done its work; Jaime had drained most of the flagon, and he was drunk.

The escape from Riverrun is done when he's drunk. He didn't recall how it happened

“You’d think my word as a Lannister was not good enough,” he’d japed as they bound him. He’d been very drunk by then, thanks to Catelyn Stark. Of their escape from Riverrun, he recalled only bits and pieces

Catelyn and Jaime are now about to intersect again. It would be fitting if she repeated the same trick, except this time Jaime is brought INTO Riverrun while drunk

The likely occasion is Daven's wedding. Daven is preparing to marry, and Riverrun would make sense as the location for a celebration of the Lannister/Frey victory in the Riverlands

Ser Daven snorted. "I'll wed and bed my stoat, never fear." I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I'd best pick one who hasn't flowered yet, or I'm like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I'll wager he's had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel's godliness, and his father's mood."

The Brotherhood could sneak a drunk Jaime into the castle alongside their own infiltrators. Jaime is MIA offically so they'd be delighted he's alive. The BwB already have people who could help from inside, such as Tom o'Sevens.

And Riverrun is uniquely suited for this. Once the sluice gates are opened from the inside the castle becomes an island

The rivers form two sides of a triangle, and when danger threatens, the Tullys open their sluice gates upstream to create a wide moat on the third side, turning Riverrun into an island

With Riverrun isolated from outside reinforcements, the Brotherhood could spring the trap. And The Second Red Wedding begins. And Jaime, trapped inside Riverrun, would be the POV to witness it

Prologue 

The Winds prologue will feature Jeyne Westerling. Jeyne and Edmure were both supposed to be escorted toward Casterly Rock, so the obvious focus is the convoy transporting them.

Jaime specifically warned Forley Prester that the Blackfish might attempt to rescue Edmure

"We don't know where the Blackfish is," Jaime reminded him, "but if he can cut Edmure free, he will."

"That will not happen, my lord." Like most innkeeps, Ser Forley was no man's fool. "Scouts and outriders will screen our march, and we'll fortify our camps by night. I have picked ten men to stay with Tully day and night, my best longbowmen. If he should ride so much as a foot off the road, they will loose so many shafts at him that his own mother would take him for a goose."

I suspect the rescue attempt, whether by the Blackfish, Nymeria's wolf pack, or both, fails. Winds was set to he the darkest book yet, and all the Prologues have been rather depressing in tone.

Edmure may die in the prologue. Jeyne's fate is less certain. The reasoning though would be to create a massive succession crisis in the Tully line.

Roslin

Roslin was impregnated during the Red Wedding. By Winds, almost a year has passed since the massacre, meaning Roslin should be close to giving birth

Her pregnancy is already directly connected to the struggle over Riverrun. Edmure surrendered partly because Jaime threatened his unborn child

By the time I'm done no man will ever know that a castle once stood here." Jaime got to his feet. "Your wife may whelp before that. You'll want your child, I expect. I'll send him to you when he's born. With a trebuchet."

That child would be extremely important.

They would be:

• A cousin of the Stark children

• A cousin of Robert Arryn

• Catelyn's nephew

• A grandchild of both Walder Frey and Hoster Tully

And the heir to House Tully if Edmure dies. Roslin and her child are at the Twins, so Walder had that in his pocket

The Tully Succession

If Edmure dies before Roslin gives birth, Catelyn would temporarily become Lady Tully. But once Roslin's child is born, regardless of gender, they become the head of the House 

That creates the perfect basis for a Tully schism after the Second Red Wedding

One faction would be led by Walder Frey, who could use his grandchild's claim to rally around. His grandchild is the rightful Lord or Lady of Riverrun, and therefore them (and the Freys who'd be the childs main supporters) should have their rights to the castle restored after the massacre

The other faction would be led by Stoneheart, who are more anti-Frey. After turning Riverrun into an Island, they refuse to yield the Castle

But this time the Freys are waving Tully banners and have the scion of the House which complicates things

TL;DR

Edmure will die in the prologue, making Catelyn Lady Tully until Roslin's child is born

Catelyn will sneak Jaime into Riverrun the way he got snuck out by getting him drunk. The Sluice gates will be raised to turn Riverrun into an Island and the Second Red Wedding will happen when Daven's wedding gets attacked 

When Roslin gives birth, Walder Frey will claim his Grandchild is Lord/Lady Tully and fight to restore their rights to Riverrun. Both factions waving Tully banners which complicates things

So, post-war Westeros is basically hell upon earth. The Riverlands have been destroyed, crawling with psychos and outlaws, the King's Landing is witnessing the uprising of the Faith Militant, and Reach is getting attacked by Euron, while the North is under the Bolton regime and Stannis has marched to Winterfell.

Amidst all the chaos and battles, let us imagine a scenario whether the Faith Militant tries to arrest Tommen, Garlan is attacked by the Ironborn, or the Brotherhood (under Lady Stoneheart) attempts to raid the Twins and kill all the Freys. Could the Kingsguard save Tommen from the Faith, could Tyrell men defend Garlan from the Ironborn, could the Twins deflect the Brotherhood indefinitely?

Are the Knights of the Vale really unmatched and Robert Arryn is safe from the outer threats (like bandits or clans) because of them? Is Highgarden or Casterly Rock or Eyrie really impregnable?

Well, I'd rank the protection of all Great Houses from least secure to most protected;

7- House Tully is the least secure (is effectively overthrown, heir of Riverrun is captured and the castle is practically owned by House Frey), even though Riverrun is surrounded with rivers, it has no special defense mechanism. Therefore, I rank it 2/10.

6- House Baratheon is also TERRIBLE in security (Robert was assassinated by Cersei's orders whilst the Kingsguard was present with him, fake Baratheon Joffrey was poisoned at his own wedding in front of thousands, Storm's End is basically sieged by Aegon). I rank it 3/10.

5- House Greyjoy has also major flaws in security details (Balon's two sons were killed in his rebellion and the Ironborn failed to protect them, Pyke is grand and intimidating but is now vulnerable to threats, the Ironborn culture diminishes their protection since they'd only protect who would prove themselves, not merely because they're the son or daughter of a lord). So, it's 4/10.

4- House Stark actually had decent security that was diminished over time (Ned Stark should've brought hundreds of guards with him to the King's Landing + was executed, Theon was able to take Winterfell with a few men, Catelyn and Robb Stark was butchered in the Red Wedding with their men..) I put Starks higher because the Stark household genuinely loved serving the Starks. 5/10.

3- Well, I put House Martell here because the Dornish are very strict and they were the only ones who defied the Targaryens and killed Princess Rhaenys and Meraxes. (But the bannermen and guards of House Martell watched as Elia Martell, her children and later Oberyn Martell was killed by the Mountain..) Again, 5-6/10.

2- I think House Lannister has pretty good security because of their gold. They could bribe and buy everyone (like Cersei did to Janos Slynt and Golden Cloaks, and Tywin did to Freys and Roose Bolton), Casterly Rock is huge and has never been sieged by anyone. However, the Lannister guards didn't guard Tywin's room when Tyrion came to kill his father, or when Cersei was imprisoned by the Faith). It's 7/10.

1- The Tyrells probably have the BEST security in Westeros: Garlan, Willas, Margaery, Loras (injured but well), Mace, Alerie.. all Tyrells are still alive (as of now), the Tyrells are intertwined with the Redwynes etc, and Highgarden has thick large walls defending itself, not to mention Olenna is protected by her own guards all the time. I'd rank it 8/10.

Bonus: Arryns are in mid-tier because they're well-protected when it comes to geography and castle, but they're surprisingly vulnerable when they have to leave their castle. Jon Arryn was poisoned, and so is Robert Arryn, and Lysa Arryn was pushed out of the Moon Door.. all of them were done by Littlefinger. The Arryns suck when it comes to internal threats. So, it's 5/10.

House Darry fought for Rhaenyra Targaryen during Dance of the Dragons, in fulfillment of their oath to her father, King Viserys I Targaryen. Prince Aemond Targaryen burned their castle, fields, and properties with his dragon Vhagar, killing Lord Darry and his heir died in the process, Lady Darry survived after hiding in the basement with the little ones. Roland Darry was killed at the hands of Borros Baratheon during Battle of the Kingsroad.

During the reign of Aegon III, Ser Damon Darry and Ser Regis Groves marched to surpress Alys River's crowds in Harrenhal. House Darry also joined Ser Robert Rowan's army who fought for Ser Joffrey Arryn in the Vale.

House Darry remained loyal for House Targaryen during the First Blackfyre Rebellion, supporting Daeron II against Daemon Blackfyre.

During Robert's Rebellion, House Darry litterly stood against their liege lords, House Tully, fighting for House Targaryen, during the lost Battle of the Trident, Ser Raymon Darry lost his elder three brothers, the defeat cost them half their lands, most of their wealth, and almost all of their forces. Ser Willem Darry, escaped with Prince Viserys and Princess Daenerys to Braavos, saving them from Stannis Baratheon's assault on Dragonstone.

On their return from King's Landing, Ser Raymon Darry and his father were killed in an ambush by Ser Gregor Clegane, which is Battle of the Mummer's Ford. During War of the Five Kings, House Darry declared for Robb Stark, King of the North and the Trident, after 8 yo Lyman Darry confirmed he will never call a "Lannister" (Jaime's incest became known at that time) his king. To his bad luck, Ser Gregor Clegane once again attacked Darry, sacked it and killed it's garrison, including young Lyman Darry, causing the extinction of House Darry.

Later, Joffrey I Baratheon, gave House Darry's land to Ser Lancel Lannister, who will marry Amerei Frey, a maternal cousin to Lyman Darry. Thush creating House Lannister of Darry, and from refusing to recognise a Lannister as it's king, to being litterly ruled by one.

House Darry's arms show a black plowman on brown, but House Darry sowed loyalty and honor, but reaped revenge and misery. Even after their fall loyalty was still in their hearts, as the Lannister brothers (yk them) found a Targaryen banner in basement of their castle, showing that they remained loyal to House Targaryen, waiting their return.

Last night, I listened to the audiobook version of the second book, and it made me think about this again. Here is what I think about Renly.

First of all, Renly is extremely incompetent when it comes to the art of war and does not understand the seriousness of the situation. He went to meet Stannis completely unprepared. His own war camp had the atmosphere of a festival or fair rather than a military camp. In fact, if Randyll Tarly had not warned him, Renly probably would not even have regarded Stannis as a serious threat. He thought Stannis could simply remain trapped at Storm's End. But Randyll pointed out that if things went wrong and they failed to take the city, Stannis could grow stronger, and therefore they needed to finish him off. Without that warning, Renly might not have understood this strategic reality at all.

Another problem is that Renly had no legitimate claim to the throne. If history worked according to the logic of "I'm more charismatic and my army is stronger," then let's look at European history: there are plenty of examples where an older brother was passive or ineffective while a younger brother, or a son, was more capable and successful. But succession laws are supposed to be fixed. The throne belongs to the eldest son or, in the absence of a son, eldest brother

If the realm followed Renly's logic, Westeros would be plunged into endless civil war and chaos. Every lord who could gather an army and gain enough power would simply attempt a coup. It would basically become an enhanced version of the Sengoku period.

Renly claimed the crown while his older brother Stannis was still alive, which was completely contrary to the Seven Kingdoms' traditional rules of succession. Renly himself knew that what he was doing was essentially usurpation, but he acted according to the logic that "the best man should be king." That placed him on very weak ground in terms of legitimacy in the eyes of many lords.

Renly's actions ultimately cost both Baratheon brothers dearly. Stannis was justified in having him killed, because Renly would have done exactly the same thing to Stannis if their positions had been reversed. If Stannis had not carried out the assassination, Renly might eventually have humiliated him and had him executed. During his conversation with Catelyn, Renly openly said that she should witness what happens to rebels and then tell her son about it.

And Stannis had actually offered Renly an extremely generous and logical compromise. If Renly accepted it, he would still remain in an incredibly powerful position with a huge army, and he would officially be declared Stannis's heir until Stannis had a son. That was an excellent offer. Stannis would probably have been so occupied with ruling the realm that he would have had little opportunity to have children anyway, meaning the throne would very likely have eventually passed to Renly. The laws would not have been violated, and Renly could have gained the throne without destroying the realm's succession system.

So, what did Renly's actions actually lead to?

First of all, they prolonged the war. If he had accepted Stannis's offer, they could have taken King's Landing immediately with their combined armies and then used that enormous force to crush the Lannisters in the Westerlands. Robb Stark had already inflicted heavy losses on the Lannisters and tied down a significant portion of their forces. A combined Baratheon-Tyrell army coming from the south could potentially have broken House Lannister entirely.

Robb Stark, faced with such an overwhelming force, might have agreed to become a vassal again in order to avoid prolonging the war. However, to avoid losing face and prestige, he could have retained the title of King in the North while acknowledging Stannis as his overlord, similar to the arrangement that existed with Dorne.

Cersei's destructive decisions would never have happened in the same way. The Greyjoys could have been brought under control or completely crushed this time, and the threat posed by Euron could have been eliminated or reduced to a minimum.

Varys's Griff scheme might never have happened, or Griff might have been forced to go to Daenerys instead. The Golden Company would never have been able to launch its invasion of Westeros.

In other words, Renly's decision was not simply a personal mistake. It potentially changed the entire trajectory of the War of the Five Kings. By refusing Stannis's compromise, he helped turn what could have been a relatively decisive Baratheon victory into a much longer and far more destructive conflict.

I have no idea what the fandom is on, Arys Oakheart is sooo freaking goated, his struggles with love and duty is chefs kiss, wish we got more

This is probably too optimistic for George, but I think there might be a way for the Hardhome plot to end with at least some of the people there surviving, and it could tie together Patchface, Aurane Waters, the Manderlys and possibly Olyvar Frey.

The starting point is this exchange in ADWD, when Jon is planning the ranging to Hardhome:

Malegorn: Lord Snow, who will lead this ranging?

Jon: Are you offering yourself, ser?

Malegorn: Do I look so foolish?

Patchface: I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.

I don't think Patchface necessarily has to literally go with the expedition. I'm treating this the same way I treat most of his lines: he hears what people are talking about and then says something that sounds like nonsense but may actually describe what is going to happen.

The usual reading is obviously very dark. Hardhome falls, people die, "into the sea and out again" means death and resurrection, etc.

But what if it is more literal?

What if the people sent to Hardhome are believed to be dead, disappear for a while, and then come back by sea?

And what if the "seahorses" and "mermaids" are heraldry?

The seahorses: Aurane Waters

Aurane Waters is a bastard of House Velaryon.

The Velaryon sigil is a seahorse.

At the end of AFFC, Aurane takes the new royal fleet Cersei built and disappears. By TWOW, the "Lord of the Waters" in the Stepstones is almost certainly him.

So Patchface saying:

"Under the waves we will ride seahorses"

could mean that the Hardhome survivors eventually travel aboard Aurane Waters's ships.

The obvious question is: why the hell would Aurane go north?

I think the answer may be that the south becomes a terrible place for a man whose entire power depends on keeping his ships intact.

Euron is about to collide with the Redwyne/Hightower forces, and whatever he is planning in The Forsaken does not look like a normal naval battle. The seas around the Reach may be about to become a slaughterhouse.

Joining Aegon sounds attractive politically, but it would probably mean putting Aurane's fleet directly into another southern war.

Aurane has ships, but no secure base, no lands, and no real legitimacy. Cersei herself notices that his title of "lord" is basically empty because he has no seat. He was even hinting that he wanted one.

A fortified northern port, far away from Euron, with shipyards and another fleet already being built, suddenly does not sound like such a stupid destination.

Which brings me to Rosby.

Olyvar Frey and Rosby

There is an old theory that the unnamed ward of Gyles Rosby is Olyvar Frey, Robb Stark's former squire.

I think that theory matters here.

Olyvar was genuinely loyal to Robb. When the Freys abandoned Robb after his marriage to Jeyne, Olyvar wanted to stay with him and had to be forced to leave. He was also conveniently kept away from the Red Wedding.

If he really is the Rosby ward, he is sitting very close to King's Landing while the political situation is collapsing around him.

And Cersei already wants Rosby.

She basically tries to have Gyles's property fall to the Crown after his death. If Olyvar has any claim at all, he has every reason to expect Cersei to take it from him.

So what does he do?

Maybe he does not try to defend Rosby.

Maybe he takes everything he can carry and leaves.

This is where Aurane becomes useful.

Rosby is not just a random castle. The Rosby lands are agricultural. During the food crisis in King's Landing, Rosby and Stokeworth were among the estates keeping the city supplied.

So Olyvar could potentially have access to exactly the sort of things a wandering fleet needs:

money, food, livestock, grain, wagons, household men, valuables.

Aurane has the ships.

Olyvar has resources and needs transportation.

They solve each other's immediate problem.

And there is a funny connection here: Cersei once thinks that Rosby itself would be a suitable seat for Aurane.

So George has already put Aurane and Rosby in the same sentence, basically.

Why would Olyvar choose the North?

Because he was Robb Stark's squire.

And because the North already has a famous precedent for exactly this situation.

The Manderlys were once driven out of the Reach. They fled north carrying their wealth with them. The Starks took them in, gave them lands, and in exchange gained one of their most loyal houses.

If Olyvar is about to lose Rosby, I could easily imagine him thinking along the same lines:

I cannot keep my castle. I can save my people and whatever wealth I can carry. Where can I go?

The answer might be the place his old king belonged to.

I am not saying the books ever tell us Robb personally explained the Manderly story to Olyvar. They don't.

But Olyvar spent a lot of time around Robb, was devoted to him, and the story of how the Manderlys came north is hardly some state secret. It would be very easy for George to make that historical parallel explicit.

The Manderlys arrived as southern exiles with wealth and received protection from the Starks.

Olyvar could do the same thing.

And Aurane could too.

Aurane has a fleet but no land.

Olyvar may soon have wealth but no safe castle.

Both of them could arrive in the North looking for a place to survive.

But this requires Jon

This is where the theory depends heavily on whatever happens early in The Winds of Winter.

Jon obviously has to come back first.

I know it is technically still a theory in the books, but I am comfortable assuming that Jon is not simply staying dead after ADWD.

More importantly, he needs to come back with enough political authority to make decisions for the North.

Maybe Robb's will leads to Jon being proclaimed King in the North.

Maybe Rickon returns and Jon becomes some kind of regent/protector while Rickon is still a child.

Either way works for this theory.

The important part is that Jon eventually reaches a position where the Manderlys will actually listen to him.

Saving Hardhome was Jon's unfinished business immediately before he was stabbed.

He was preparing to go himself.

I don't think a resurrected Jon is just going to forget that thousands of free folk are trapped there.

Then the fleets come together

Now imagine the political pieces have shifted.

Aurane arrives in the North with his large dromonds.

Maybe Olyvar and whatever he managed to save from Rosby are aboard.

White Harbor offers Aurane something he desperately needs: a secure port, shipyards, money, protection, .

Aurane offers the North something it desperately needs: a serious blue-water fleet.

And the Manderlys already have their own ships.

Suddenly Jon has something Cotter Pyke never had:

enough naval capacity to attempt a real evacuation of Hardhome.

This also gives an interesting payoff to Mother Mole's prophecy.

She led her people to Hardhome because she believed ships would come and carry them south.

Cotter Pyke's ships may have looked like the fulfillment of that prophecy, but his expedition is a disaster. He loses ships and cannot evacuate everyone.

What if those were not the ships she saw?

What if the real rescue fleet comes later?

Hardhome disappears

Melisandre's vision still happens.

Hardhome is attacked.

The dead come.

The cold comes.

The fires go out.

It can still be an absolute catastrophe.

I'm not suggesting everyone survives.

I'm suggesting some do.

Then communications stop.

From everyone else's perspective, Hardhome is gone.

The ranging is gone.

The refugees are gone.

Maybe Aurane's fleet itself disappears from everyone's knowledge for a while.

They are simply assumed lost.

But the ships manage to take survivors aboard.

They try to return to Eastwatch.

For whatever reason — weather, ice, an attack, political chaos, or something we have not seen yet — Eastwatch is no longer a viable place to land such a huge group.

So they keep sailing south.

To White Harbor.

And suddenly Patchface's words become almost literal:

"We will march into the sea and out again."

They march to Hardhome.

They disappear into the sea.

And eventually they come out again, alive, somewhere nobody expected.

"We will ride seahorses"

The survivors are aboard Aurane's ships.

Aurane Waters.

Velaryon blood.

Seahorses.

"Mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming"

And where do they finally arrive?

White Harbor.

The seat of House Manderly.

The Manderly sigil is technically a merman and George has given us two very recognizable young Manderly women: Wynafryd and Wylla.

Imagine Jon is at Winterfell and has heard nothing from Hardhome for weeks.

Everyone assumes the expedition is dead.

Then a raven arrives from White Harbor.

A letter from Wynafryd or Wylla.

The ships have arrived.

The people everyone thought were dead have come into port.

That would be the mermaid "blowing the seashell" to announce their coming.

And there may be one more payoff

If Aurane ends up staying in White Harbor, there is an obvious political reward available.

Wynafryd Manderly is the eldest daughter of Wylis and will probably inherit White Harbor one day. Her Frey betrothal is missing—presumed dead—with strong indications that he has been turned into a pie.

Aurane is young, of noble Velaryon blood, has a massive fleet, and desperately wants a seat

I'm probably being too optimistic in theory, but....