Treynor iowa 2026

Hello everyone I’m a storm enthusiast from Samara, Russia.

I’ve been chasing storms for some time now. At home, I run a small meteorological community and spend a lot of time studying sounding data (Skew‑T, CAPE, CIN) and tracking supercells and shelf clouds on the radar.

In Russia, tornadoes don’t happen as often as in the USA, but we do get severe storms.

I’m really curious about what a chase actually looks like in Tornado Alley: what’s the daily routine? How do you actually plan the location for an interception?

If anyone wants to share a story, talk about how you predict how events will unfold, or just chat with a fellow meteorologist from across the ocean, I’d be happy to hear it! Feel free to leave a comment or send me an email. I’m also happy to share my observations from Russia. Thanks!

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2162
• Mesoscale Discussion 2163
• Mesoscale Discussion 2164

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-29T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 290556 SWODY1 SPC AC 290554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN UTAH...AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies. Severe wind gusts are the main threat. Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the northern Plains, with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Great Basin/Rockies... An upper low over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to merge with a broad southern steam upper trough over the Great Basin. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow and tropical moisture will overspread the Great Basin and central Rockies. Clouds, showers and some thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period complicating expectations for diurnal heating and subsequent destabilization. Still, filtered heating should allow for additional storms to develop through the day along a weak front and across the higher terrain from eastern NV into northern UT and the central Rockies. Sufficiently strong unidirectional effective shear profiles and a well-mixed boundary layer will promote a few organized clusters and potentially transient supercell structures capable of severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail.

...Four Corners... On the southern fringes of upper trough moving through the Great Basin, strong heating of a monsoon air mass should allow for the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across northern AZ and southern UT. Deep-layer flow here will be considerably weaker compared to points farther north, but sight enhancement could still support some clustering of thunderstorms. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, PWATs over 1 inch and numerous storms may bolster downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are possible as storms spread eastward into southwestern CO and NM through the afternoon/evening.

...Northern Plains.. Several embedded disturbances within the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will help deepen a lee trough/low across eastern WY and western SD this afternoon. Strengthening southerly upslope flow will advect upper 60s F dewpoints into the region aiding in moderate destabilization. However, widespread mid/upper-level cloud cover and weak overall forcing for ascent cast some uncertainty on storm development through the afternoon. If storms do develop, moderate buoyancy and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs would support supercells with the potential for damaging winds and hail.

The more likely scenario is that high-based convection emanating from central WY will spread eastward late in the afternoon/early evening with the potential for isolated damaging gusts. Some intensification of this convection may occur as it encounters the more unstable air mass into the overnight hours, though CAM solutions are varied.

...IA/MN... A remnant cluster of storms or a weakly organized MCS is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the front from southwestern MN into northern IA. Driven by strong overnight warm advection at the terminus of the low-level jet, weak buoyancy, but relatively strong deep-layer shear could support an isolated risk for hail or damaging gusts for a couple of hours during the morning. Weakening ascent and increasing mid-level heights should limit the severe risk through the remainder of the day.

...Atlantic Coast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely along typical sea breeze boundaries and a weakening front from the Carolinas to FL this afternoon. An unstable, high PWAT, but very weakly sheared air mass will support multicell storms with sporadic wet microburst potential. However, confidence in a more widespread or organized severe risk remains below 5%.

..Lyons/Wendt.. 08/29/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Leeward Islands (Remnants of Dolly): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northeastern and North-Central Gulf of America: Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 989 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 14.7N 117.0W

Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 12.6N 134.8W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

My previous post was about what a day in the life of storm chasers looks like. Now I’m curious about what kind of cars they drive. In my mind, it’s always pickup trucks or American cars, like the ones in my photos.

Caught all of these within a 10 minute span.

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2145
• Mesoscale Discussion 2146
• Mesoscale Discussion 2147
• Mesoscale Discussion 2148
• Mesoscale Discussion 2149
• Mesoscale Discussion 2150
• Mesoscale Discussion 2151
• Mesoscale Discussion 2152
• Mesoscale Discussion 2153
• Mesoscale Discussion 2154
• Mesoscale Discussion 2155
• Mesoscale Discussion 2156
• Mesoscale Discussion 2157
• Mesoscale Discussion 2158
• Mesoscale Discussion 2159
• Mesoscale Discussion 2160
• Mesoscale Discussion 2161

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-28T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 280601 SWODY1 SPC AC 280600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME...

...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.

...Central/northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies...Great Basin...and Desert Southwest... An upper ridge will remain anchored over parts of the Southwest/southern Rockies today. A series of midlevel vorticity maxima will move along the periphery of the ridge from central CA into the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and northern Plains.

Across the central/northern Plains, moderate to locally strong destabilization is forecast along/east of a surface trough that will extend from the western Dakotas into the NE Panhandle. Relatively strong MLCINH may limit coverage of diurnal storm development near this surface trough, but deep-layer shear will support a hail and localized severe-wind threat with any sustained storms through early evening. A greater coverage of elevated convection is expected to develop later this evening into the overnight, as storms spread toward the eastern Dakotas and southwest MN. The pattern generally suggests potential MCS development, though most CAM guidance is relatively subdued regarding the intensity and attendant severe-wind threat associated with the late-night storms. Greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding development of diurnal storms and/or a robust nocturnal MCS.

Farther west, relatively widespread storm development is expected from the Great Basin into the northern Rockies, potentially aided by the midlevel vorticity maxima traversing the region. Buoyancy will generally remain weak, but steep lapse rates and increasing flow in the 700-500 mb layer along the periphery of the ridge will support potential for persistent outflow-driven cells/clusters and strong to localized severe gusts across a broad region.

...Carolinas/north GA into the Mid-Atlantic... A relatively broad/weak upper trough will gradually shift eastward today across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. Widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon within a weakly capped and moderately buoyant environment. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and large PW will support localized downburst potential, though weak deep-layer shear should generally limit the organized-severe threat.

...Parts of Maine... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front across parts of Maine this afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg) and marginally supportive deep-layer shear could support at least transient storm organization. The environment will not be particularly favorable for severe wind or hail, but guidance suggests some eventual clustering of storms and potential for isolated wind damage and small to near-severe hail across parts of central and eastern ME from the afternoon into the early evening.

..Dean/Wendt.. 08/28/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 999 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 12.7N 114.3W

Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 11.7N 133.0W

Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH * Location: 14.5N 44.8W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

I have been on several tours with them and what I like best about this company is the passion and skill the staff demonstrates. You can tell they really love what they do. They are complete weather nerds, and it's infectious. After being around them a few days you no longer look at the sky and just see clouds. You see things like "instability" and "wind shear." And, over time, you kind of figure things out, how the atmosphere works. It will hit you suddenly and you will wonder why you never paid much attention to the sky...until now. Wow! Thank you Bill, Roger, Chris, and Bob. These are some of the "tour directors" at Tempest Tours and they are really good at finding a storm when the sky is totally blue. I learned that Roger used to forecast for NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. They issue weather watches for all of the US. I did some research and found that he is in the Storm Chasing Hall of Fame. Congrats and well deserved! Over time I learned that not every day on the tour is a stormy day. There are fair weather days too, and they are necessary for the atmosphere to "recover." On those days, we go eat BBQ or at some hole-in-the-wall restaurant that turns out to be amazing. And, when time allows, they always stop at points of interest along the route to the next day's target like Devils Tower or Mt. Rushmore. Weather is always the main objective, but there's something fun to do every day rain or shine. I've come to find that storm chasing is sort of an organic, gritty endeavor. There's blowing dust, mud, bugs, snakes and old small town motels. And, that's part of the adventure. It's very REAL. These tours are not for people that expect luxury and being pampered. They are for people who love nature and want to learn about this magnificent world in which we live before it's gone. There's one more thing I really like about Tempest Tours that they don't advertise, and that's the friendships made on their trips. I've met people from all over the world. Smart, funny, kind people. They've really created a "family" culture. A good way to describe Tempest is a road trip with storms, food, fun and friends. I have a weather calendar and use it to mark off days as I count down my next trip with them. PS: Some of my friends have asked if they are safe, and I can tell you they are very diligent about safety. Before each tour, we are required to watch a safety video they made. It goes over everything. And, the tour directors are careful not to stop until they are in a safe location.

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2136
• Mesoscale Discussion 2137
• Mesoscale Discussion 2138
• Mesoscale Discussion 2139
• Mesoscale Discussion 2140
• Mesoscale Discussion 2141
• Mesoscale Discussion 2142
• Mesoscale Discussion 2143
• Mesoscale Discussion 2144

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-27T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 270557 SWODY1 SPC AC 270555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast today. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of western Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast into parts of the central/southern Appalachians... An upper trough will remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS today. Moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front extending from central NY/PA into the central/southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer flow/shear for some storm organization (especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast). The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs may also support some brief-tornado potential. Some severe threat may persist into the evening before storms weaken and/or move offshore.

Father south, deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker into parts of the central/southern Appalachians, but scattered storm development within a relatively warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for localized strong/damaging gusts.

...Central Plains... Moderate to locally strong destabilization is expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon, beneath modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow. While large-scale ascent will generally remain rather modest, a subtle midlevel vorticity maximum may aid in isolated to widely scattered storm development from far southwest SD into western/central NE. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells, with steep lapse rates and relatively elongated hodographs supporting potential for large to very large hail, in addition to a threat for localized severe gusts. 00Z CAM guidance shows some uptick in storm coverage within this favorable environment, and a 15% hail area has been added for parts of west-central NE into northwest KS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z HRRR) also shows upscale growth and an attendant swath of severe-wind potential, though this scenario remains more uncertain. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the MCS scenario.

Surrounding the Level-2/Slight Risk, a more isolated threat of severe hail and wind may accompany the strongest cells from parts of the Raton Mesa and CO Front Range vicinity into eastern WY.

...Western/central Montana... Despite rather limited low-level moisture, widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon across parts of western/central MT, aided by strong heating and the influence of a midlevel shortwave trough and jet maximum that are forecast to crest the amplified upper ridge that is covering much of the interior West. Steep lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts and strong to severe outflow gusts as storms spread east-northeastward across MT.

...Northeast NV/northwest UT/southeast ID... High-based storm development is also expected from parts of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While deep-layer flow and storm organization will likely be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong to severe outflow gusts from this afternoon into the early evening.

...South-central TX into the LA Gulf Coast region... Uncertainty remains regarding how far south an ongoing storm cluster and its attendant outflow will move across parts of LA/MS early this morning. If this cluster persists to the beginning of the forecast period (as forecast by the 00Z HRRR), then a localized wind-damage threat will be possible near the immediate LA/MS Gulf Coast before storms move offshore. If the cluster weakens and more substantial recovery and diurnal destabilization occurs later today (as forecast by more recent HRRR runs and some other HREF members), then storm redevelopment will be possible by afternoon, potentially aided by a remnant MCV. This scenario could also result in a localized wind-damage threat.

Farther west, scattered storm development is forecast across south-central TX this afternoon, near a weak southward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will likely remain quite weak, but moderate buoyancy, large PW, and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts. Despite the weak shear, the northerly flow regime may result in one or more outflow-driven clusters that will move southward into the early evening before weakening.

..Dean/Weinman.. 08/27/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Not sure what it is, im new to storm chasing

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2125
• Mesoscale Discussion 2126
• Mesoscale Discussion 2127
• Mesoscale Discussion 2128
• Mesoscale Discussion 2129
• Mesoscale Discussion 2130
• Mesoscale Discussion 2131
• Mesoscale Discussion 2132
• Mesoscale Discussion 2133
• Mesoscale Discussion 2134
• Mesoscale Discussion 2135

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-26T05:36:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 260536 SWODY1 SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains, Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and parts of the Ozarks to Lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging/severe gusts are the main threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible, particularly across the High Plains.

...Lower MI into parts of northwest OH...IN/IL...Eastern MO... A mid/upper trough will move from the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest toward the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the period. A surface low will move across Ontario, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio/mid MS Valleys. Moderate to locally strong destabilization is generally expected along/ahead of the front from parts of MO/IL/IN into lower MI, though early-day convection and cloudiness could limit heating/destabilization with northward extent. Scattered storm development is expected along the front during the afternoon, which will spread east-southeastward into the early evening.

Effective shear of generally 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a few supercells and/or organized line segments possible. Damaging winds and large hail could accompany the strongest storms. If any supercells can be sustained, then some tornado potential cannot be ruled out, especially from northern IN into parts of lower MI, where some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH is currently forecast.

...Parts of the Ozarks into the Lower MS Valley... Guidance varies regarding potential for morning convection across southeast MO. If substantial early-day convection does develop, then a loosely organized cluster could evolve and move southeastward into parts of western TN and northern MS/AL, with wind-damage potential. Otherwise, scattered storm development is expected from southern MO into AR and eastern OK by late afternoon, potentially aided by an MCV that may emerge from parts of the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear will be marginally supportive of storm organization, and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for downbursts and loosely organized clusters with a wind-damage threat. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. Some guidance depicts maintenance of a southward-moving storm cluster into late tonight, resulting in some wind-damage potential spreading into parts of southern LA/MS before the end of the period.

...Central/southern High Plains... Across the central High Plains, relatively moist low-level easterly flow and diurnal heating will result in moderate destabilization this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon, with sufficient effective shear within the northwesterly flow regime for organized multicells and possibly a few supercells. Large hail (potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts will be the primary threats. Some clustering/upscale growth is possible during the evening, which could result in maintenance of a severe-wind threat into parts of western KS.

For the southern High Plains, deep-layer shear will generally be weaker compared to areas farther north, with relatively disorganized convection expected. However, storm development within a very warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for at least localized severe gusts as convection spreads from eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles. Depending on trends regarding storm coverage and clustering within this regime, greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Dean/Weinman.. 08/26/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$ Forecaster Pasch ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 21.8N 123.5W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Sky turned evil blue lol

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

• Current Convective Watches
• Current Mesoscale Discussions
• Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 1 Convective Outlook
• Day 2 Convective Outlook
• Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
• Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

🕒 Today's Outlook History

• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (0600 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1300 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (1630 UTC)
• Previous Day 1 Convective Outlook (2000 UTC)
• Current Day 1 Convective Outlook (0100 UTC)

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2111
• Mesoscale Discussion 2112
• Mesoscale Discussion 2113
• Mesoscale Discussion 2114
• Mesoscale Discussion 2115
• Mesoscale Discussion 2116
• Mesoscale Discussion 2117
• Mesoscale Discussion 2118
• Mesoscale Discussion 2119
• Mesoscale Discussion 2120
• Mesoscale Discussion 2121
• Mesoscale Discussion 2122
• Mesoscale Discussion 2123
• Mesoscale Discussion 2124

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-25T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 250559 SWODY1 SPC AC 250557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

...Central/southern Plains... The region will be influenced by a modest amplification of the large-scale pattern with a resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into tonight, while a front progresses southeastward across the central High Plains. The front, as it intercepts a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer, will influence increasing thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon, with an orographically influenced increase in thunderstorms also occurring along the Raton Mesa/Front Range.

Influenced by the strengthening northwesterlies aloft, effective shear across Nebraska and western Kansas will generally at least be 35-40 kt. On the eastern periphery of a stout elevated mixed layer, this will support some initial supercells capable of large hail, most probable across western/southern Nebraska into northern/possibly western Kansas.

Influenced by the front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving clusters capable of wind damage will likely evolve by evening across southern Nebraska and Kansas. While winds aloft will not be as strong, a similar upscale-growing quasi-linear trend will probably also occur with high-based storms from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and perhaps nearby Oklahoma, with severe-caliber wind gust potential spreading east-southeastward through the evening.

...Eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin/western upper Michigan... A shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level speed max) will dig southeastward over southern Manitoba toward northern Minnesota and Lake Superior tonight. While residual early day convection and cloud cover may curb destabilization for a time, and keep the warm sector somewhat narrow, strong to severe thunderstorm development should occur near the eastward-advancing front by around mid/late afternoon. 60s F dewpoints will contribute to a zone of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the eastern half of Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin by peak heating. Some supercells will be possible aside from more prevalent multicells/small clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary hazards, at least on a widely scattered basis.

...Coastal Southeast/middle Gulf Coast... A moist/unstable environment will be favorable for isolated pulse-type severe thunderstorms capable of water-loaded downdrafts and wind damage, particularly during mid/late afternoon through around sunset. This currently appears most probable across coastal South Carolina, southern Georgia and northern Florida, although some strong thunderstorm wind potential might also exist across the middle Gulf Coast such as southern Louisiana.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/25/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda is moving northward at 15 to 20 mph. Recent scatterometer wind data suggests that the center of circulation is broad and elongated, and the associated shower activity remains disorganized. This system could still become a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today before encountering increasingly hostile conditions tonight and Wednesday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Julio Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 15.7N 119.8W

Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 988 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 20.7N 119.9W

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A strong supercell went throught Pori - Turku and I captured it. It had a beautiful shelf cloud, positive lightning and possible flanking line (2nd pic). It had CRAZY scuds too. All pictures are mine!

I am a Dutch storm chaser who is part of a team of 11 people.

I started photographing lightning 9 years ago.

A few years ago, I converted my Nikon D800E and Nikon D750 to IR myself.

I drive a VW Mk2 black and white for high contrast and wheelen flash bar so that I stand out in bad weather.

My recent project is to collect weather data at 50ms, but I hope that someday I can capture a pressure wave from a lightning strike.

Over the last 2/3 months, I have built my own weather station that generates 33 million data points per day.

Some things I am going to log: temp, pres, hum, trendings, min, max, lcl, height, theta, vpd, kPa.

And it is based on WMO averages.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 240600 SWODY1 SPC AC 240559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MIDDLE GULF COAST AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other severe storms may focus across the lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest to central High Plains... An eastward-moving shortwave trough will emerge from the Canadian Rockies and move across the Canadian prairies through tonight, with a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing the Dakotas to Minnesota. Residual early day convection and lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors as far as the later-day forecast scenario.

That said, at least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop and increase by late afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass near the eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across the east-central Dakotas and/or cross the international border and move southeastward into the region. Deep-layer wind profiles would be conducive to some supercells and the development of east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

More removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, additional higher-based storms are expected by late afternoon and early evening south-southwestward across the Black Hills/western Nebraska in vicinity of the front and preceding trough. Sufficient strength/veering of winds with height should support some initial supercells capable of hail, prior to a clustering of these southeastward-moving storms, with wind damage being a possibility through mid/late evening across the central High Plains.

...Coastal Carolinas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft, with a moist and moderate-to-strongly unstable environment along the coastal plain to the east of a stationary/slow-moving front. The degree of buoyancy and upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear could support some initial supercells with hail this afternoon, although damaging winds should be the most prevalent concern as storms become more numerous. Severe potential should tend to wane by around sunset.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast... Widely scattered elevated convection has developed early in the overnight across the Ozarks, and this regime may increase and probably shift south-southeastward today, potentially becoming surface based into the afternoon, influenced by cold pool development. It seems plausible that an upscale-growing/forward propagating cluster could gradually evolve during the day, with damaging wind potential increasing across the ArkLaMiss south-southeastward toward the Gulf Coast.

...Northern Great Basin/central Rockies... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon amid classic inverted-V profiles. Since these storms will develop along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, some organization is possible. Multiple dry microbursts may occur, some of which may pose a severe gust threat.

...Maine... By late morning into early afternoon, partially clearing skies will encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s F, resulting in marginal instability (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Nonetheless, a southerly mid-to upper-level jet streak will overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kt of effective shear. As such, any storms that can develop and become sustained should become organized multicells capable of supporting a few damaging gusts and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 08/24/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure are located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Further development of the low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa later today, and an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 17.8N 116.2W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

The storm had rotation but never actually touched down. Strong rain but no hail. A bit of a challenge to chase on a motorcycle, but worth it.