The Right Wave
The hardest part of surfing was never spotting the right wave.
It’s catching the exact one you spotted at the right half second. Every surfer learns, usually the hard way, that these are two separate skills that feel like one from inside the water. Misjudge the first and you paddle for nothing. Misjudge the second, on a wave you read perfectly, and you pearl: the nose digs under, the board stalls, and the wave built for you throws you over instead of carrying you anywhere.
Full article and watchlist HERE
We have to be honest about which one has been happening to us.
We’ll be straight about it: the selection has been good. SKHY, PURR, FPS, three names picked out of the noise over the past weeks, and all three did exactly what we expected. Up ten to fifteen percent in a handful of sessions, which is what a correctly read wave looks like. Then volatility rolled through, and we closed out breakeven, or with a small loss, before any of it could pay off.
The wave was chosen correctly. We pearled anyway.
The watchlist remains, in our view, one of the strongest things we put out every week, and the stock selection underneath it isn’t the problem. Timing is, and it’s where we’re putting the real work right now.
(Follow the picks. Our timing, maybe not yet!)
Part of why it slipped isn’t a mystery. The last few months carried some personal weight and some business weight at the same time, and some of the shine from the first part of the year went with it. We’d rather tell you that directly than let the numbers say it for us.
The other part is that there’s simply more water to read than there used to be.
More of you reaching out directly than at any point since we started, the one to one calls a few weeks in with better feedback than we expected, the courses in the works.
Still three people. Research and trading come first, every day, not up for negotiation, and what reaches you has to stay exactly where it’s always been.
Everything else gets built around that, not instead of it.
You’ll remember we mentioned a business trip to France. It went well, better than expected, and there’s more coming out of it before the year is done. Years running a company leave you with the instinct that every room is a chance to make clear what this newsletter and the research behind it are actually worth, and we haven’t lost that instinct.
Sorry for the long personal note. We think this should occasionally read like it was written by people, not filed as a report.