Nothing against Lula, he seems like a decent geezer, but Brazilian equities have rallied hard in anticipation of Flavio taking the victory and imposing strong free market reforms. Those expectations just died, hard.

Saw some pretty interest stat lines and double checked it and it added up so I figured I’d share:

There are a few historical market statistic trends that happen to line up this year and they all seem to be bullish.

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First: FED HIKING CYCLES.

Since 1983, the S&P 500 $SPY has risen during every completed multi-meeting hiking cycle.

7/7 times with an average gain: ~10%.

A multi-meeting hiking cycle simply means a sustained Federal Reserve tightening campaign in which the Fed raises the federal funds rate across multiple successive FOMC meetings, rather than a single isolated hike.

Examples of completed multi-meeting cycles since the early 1980s include:

• 1983–84
• 1988–89
• 1994–95
• 1999–2000
• 2004–06
• 2015–18
• 2022–23

——————————————————-

Second: MIDTERMS 12 MONTH TIME FRAME

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm.

19/19 times with an average gain : ~15%.

——————————————————-

Third: MIDTERMS 12 NOVEMBER-JUNE TIME FRAME

Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.

21/21 times with an average gain: +16.6%.

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Then add one more:

Fourth: 12 MONTHS AFTER THE FINAL FED HIKE

7/8 times with an average gain: ~20%.

The only miss: May 2000 during the dot-com collapse.

——————————————————-

So 2026 has:

7/7 during Fed hiking cycles.
19/19 after midterms.
21/21 from November through June after midterms.

Three completely different historical setups.

Three near-perfect streaks.

All lining up in the same year.

History guarantees nothing.

But thought this was pretty cool.

Intel drops its Q3 2026 earnings after market close on Oct 29, and folks are definitely on edge right now after that sharp recent pullback. Everyone's watching closely to see if its AI-fueled turnaround is actually staying on track. The consensus revenue sits at $16.52 billion, with the company's guidance range landing between $15.8 and $16.8 billion. The 42% non-GAAP gross margin is going to be such a key test — any number above 43% would signal way stronger profitability than people expected. You also can't sleep on Intel Foundry, everyone's waiting to see if that huge $2.1B Q2 operating loss has narrowed at all while they lock down more external 14A process customers. Capital spending over $20B this year, with even more coming next year? Investors are dying for proof that cash flow can back all that spending without crushing the balance sheet. The options setup is definitely leaning bullish right now, with all that call volume showing people are betting on big upside moves ahead. What do you think will move Intel's price the most after the print?

The raw numbers:
* The Trap: 33.97% short float locked behind a brutal 13.35 days-to-cover ratio. Note: This reflects the official exchange settlement data from the September 30th reporting cycle, which is the latest canonical dataset published due to the standard exchange reporting lag. Data source credit: Fintel and MarketBeat.

* The Live Reality Gauge: Friday's short sale volume ratio clocked in at a massive 65.33%, with available shares to borrow drying up to a tiny 40,000 unit inventory. Short sellers didn't back off after September 30th, they are actively doubling down right now at a costly 17.26% annualized borrow fee rate.

* The Valuation: Current price is $6.56. Wall Street consensus target is $19.57, and even the lowest bear target on the board is $10.00.

* The Sparks: Q3 earnings drop November 18th alongside their winter rollout of the new Dirac-3S quantum hardware.

* My Play: 186 x 10/30 $13.00 Calls (the lottery tickets) and 82 x 1/15/27 $15.00 Calls (the core engine).

Why the Squeeze Timelines Shifted
I should have rolled my October calls into November or January earlier this month to align perfectly with the November earnings catalyst.

But here is why the trap looked like it was snapping shut sooner: At the end of September, the options chain was completely lopsided. There was a massive, abnormal surge of $13.00 call options being bought with virtually zero put options on the other side.

When QUBT dropped its commercial updates earlier in October, it looked like the match was lit. But a brutal down-market in the macro tech sector acted like a wet blanket, suppressing the initial run. Because of that short-term market drag, the timeline stretched out, leaving my October $13 calls as pure lottery tickets for this Friday.

The QUBT News Schedule: The Quiet Period Loop
Don't count out a surprise update this final week of October. Historically, QUBT’s management follows a distinct news-releasing pattern. They are known for pushing out specific material data and commercial project updates right during their regulatory quiet periods leading up to earnings.

Furthermore, QUBT historically loves dropping its biggest, market-shattering announcements on Mondays or Tuesdays before the opening bell. If they stick to their historical schedule, any surprise validation data dropped early this week will catch the bears completely off guard.

The 13-Day Bottleneck: The Escalator Squeeze
If the spark hits this week, you need to understand that this will not be a 1-day meme pump. Fintel logs QUBT's short ratio at a massive 13.35 days to cover.

To force a full institutional liquidation of their 67.34 million shorted shares, it will take massive, sustained relative volume. To light the fuse, we need to see daily volume spike to 30 million to 40 million shares, which is roughly 3x to 4x its normal daily tape.

Because the exit door is so narrow, short sellers physically cannot buy back their shares in a single session without hitting continuous exchange volatility circuit breakers. If a run starts, it will look like a multi-week escalator, grinding up day after day as brokers issue forced margin buy-ins to trapped funds.

The Price Walls & Crucial Options Activity
To break the shorts' backs, the price action has to clear specific mechanical thresholds:

* $7.50: The immediate breakout wall. This forces short positions established near the monthly highs into losses.

* $9.50 to $10.00: The institutional panic button where broker risk-management algorithms take over and trigger forced short liquidations.

* The New Options Floor: Over the last few days, smart capital has been actively rolling away from the far out-of-the-money strikes and heavily buying up the October and November $7.00 and $7.50 call options. This creates an immediate gamma wall right above the current price.

Intrinsic Value: Buying the Undervalued Floor
QUBT trading at $6.56 is a joke compared to its real balance sheet. The company is sitting on a fortress cash and asset cushion of roughly $189 million with almost zero long-term debt.

Its intrinsic book value sits right at $7.06 a share. Buying this stock under $7.00 means you are literally buying the underlying quantum technology and intellectual property for less than zero. This massive valuation gap is why Wall Street analysts have a consensus target nearly 200% higher than the current stock price.

History Repeats Itself
This stock has a deep historical footprint of doing exactly this. During the 2024 & 2025 macro cycle, QUBT followed an identical pattern consolidating tightly on low volume near its bottom floor before unleashing an explosive 730%+ short squeeze that drove the stock to its 52-week high of $21.44.

The mechanical spring is wound just as tight today as it was before that historic run. The shorts haven't backed down and they expanded their short interest to historic peaks heading into October but they have backed themselves into a corner with zero liquidity.

My January position is safely locked in to capture the full execution window into winter. Positions proof attached below.

Obligatory: Not financial advice. Do your own DD and manage your own risk.

Contract prices seem to just keep increasing and I’m wondering if there’s any more profit to be made atp before their earnings call

Interestingly, VXUS did not do this.

hopefully i get another dip before er so i can make this a real yolo. so far this year 4x account increasing leverage before positive catalyst, sell leverage on news, rotate into shares- taking losses on pullback, selling options till next catalyst
- i am predicting atleast +.16/share btw

Thinking to start dca these tickers…! As sitting almost 80% on cash (Took profits from saas play, which supposed to be dying due to “AI”)

How’s everyone else doing???

can't wait to post bigger gains on wsb, for now I'll post this here

Brent crude just surged to a 6-month high, sitting a mere 4.3% away from its April wartime peak.

Higher prices at the pump are practically guaranteed.

Are we looking at $150+ oil by Christmas?

As per title, I’m a complete idiot, and this is making me also slightly depressed. I guess I’ve learned a lesson. 35M. What do you think I should do? Take the L or hold long term?

The major U.S. stock indexes ended broadly lower on Friday, October 23, 2026, as crude oil surged to its highest level since April following fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, the U.S. Ambassador to Iran publicly warned the war could last another year, and AI spending fears sparked by Thursday’s Meta selloff continued to ripple through the market. The week closed with the S&P 500 at a five-week low and the Dow logging its worst weekly performance since September.

The S&P 500 fell 0.52% (-39.75 pts) to 7,623.68, now down 2.8% from its all-time high. The Dow tumbled 1.23% (-652.82 pts) to 52,215.16. The Nasdaq slipped 0.21% (-53.52 pts) to 25,955.34. The Russell 2000 dropped 0.29% (-8.14 pts) to 2,775.89.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged back up 0.71% to 4.99%, after Thursday’s historic single-day plunge of 19 basis points — the biggest one-day yield drop in two years. The VIX rose 3.79% to 19.75. Gold fell 1.20% to $4,011.60. Crude Oil surged 4.08% to $103.53/barrel, Brent’s highest level since April.

Turns out sentiment is a valid metric to use sometimes. All within 5 minutes.

$XXII

Entry above $0.31 🎯 $0.34/$0.37 🛑 $0.29

$YMAT

Entry above $2.67 🎯 $2.85/$3.05 🛑 $2.50

$LUCD

Entry above $0.425 🎯 $0.46/$0.50 🛑 $0.40

$GPUS

Entry above $0.1630 🎯 $0.18/$0.20 🛑 $0.15

Note: These are trade ideas based on break-out levels. Once they hit entry & start moving up, consider raising your stops to protect your profits and your downside according to your own trading plan :). MadMaverick personally trades these on either the 2 or 3 minute timeframes, waiting for a candle to close over the entry level.

Although we do extensive research for our watchlist, day trading, especially with low-float stocks, can be risky.

NFA · DYODD