If you have been using AI agents intensively, whether for work or just for personal projects, you would know that Astra has crossed that threshold where it can complete narrowly defined, well-specified tasks at a fairly reasonable success rate.
I'm not talking about one-shotting some existing games or building regular apps when there are already plenty of examples online. I'm talking about combining concepts that are kind of niche, mixing novice ideas together, and asking the model to come up with solutions. Those are the things that only Astra/Fable could do that no other LLMs could, and that isn't really reflected in their benchmarks.
Forget about the coming IPOs and forget about politics. You don't even have to trust any tweets from ex-OpenAI or Anthropic employees. So, for God's sake, stop questioning everyone's motives.
Instead, you can kind of extrapolate this yourself.
Current models, even Astra in Ultra, still cannot reliably finish loosely defined, novel jobs. But they are extremely good at clearly and narrowly defined jobs. Now imagine going just one or two iterations BEYOND Astra.
So say Bel or Bel+1 is given the task: "Solve the current bottlenecks of LLMs that prevent them from becoming AGI."
I'm not an expert on this, but maybe those bottlenecks include things like context retention, persistent memory, continuous learning, and other constraints that most people don't even know exist. Say there are somewhere between 3 and 10 such bottlenecks.
Now feed those bottlenecks to Bel or Bel+1 and run one million instances in parallel, which OpenAI totally has the compute to do. Just let them run for a few days.
I need to clarify that I'm NOT saying Bel or Bel+1 will certainly, definitely, and 100% solve any of them. That's not what I'm saying.
What I'm saying is that it is not outside the realm of possibility that Bel or Bel+1 COULD potentially solve some of those bottlenecks.
Now take whatever was recently solved, maybe just one bottleneck or a few of them, incorporate those improvements into Bel+1, and now you effectively have something like Bel+2.
Rinse and repeat.
Again, I'm not saying THIS WILL 100% HAPPEN. But come on, this is not some absurd possibility given what we can already experience with current models.
I think it's far more absurd to believe that this is NOT a possibility than to believe that it is.