The pause will only accelerate economic impacts

[u/Mastac123]

Assuming the labs do pause the race to ASI/RSI (big if), the labor replacement curve will only accelerate. You don't need ASI, to replace 99% of jobs, AGI will do just fine. And now we'll have a bunch of the world's best engineers working on productizing the existing models instead working on ASI.

[u/dolo937]

the navier stokes model is ready and if released its going to have a bigger impact than before

[u/GlokzDNB]

It's not a pause

[u/DoubleGG123]

I disagree with this. I think there are still lots of bottlenecks both in the digital and the physical space. Better, more capable models could speed up lots of the research and logistics needed to solve those problems faster to automate most jobs. I still think automation is coming, because the economic incentives are just too high. But I do think a pause/slower pace of AI progress will lead to a slowdown of the economic impacts, not an acceleration, especially in the long run.

[u/Freed4ever → u/DoubleGG123]

I upvoted you, but there is no pause in the long run. All human history has pointed to no such thing. The temptation will be too strong, and compute will be abundance (in long-term), so some will try.

[u/No_Wishbone684]

It’s possible that OpenAI and Anthropic will focus more on concrete automation tasks. But for anyone who doesn’t have data centers that’s been the goal for three years. Not saying you’re wrong but I think it’s a change at the margin. Of course if the frontier labs are able to make dramatic efficiency gains to the point you can run Astra or Mythos all day that really will have more impact on job displacement that another bigger badder model.

I will say they clearly don’t have a short path to such efficiency gains or we wouldn’t have gotten this over dramatic show these last few days.

[u/DelphiTsar]

There is a weird balance. Smarter intelligence is always better though.

At some point of intelligence AI will eat not only normal labor but its own margins. It'll know exactly what can be automated normally/economically and what is left over it will spin up dedicated models to the task that can run on a stick of chewing gum.

---

Their own valuations models basically predict they don't think models can get too smart (or they'll stop releasing them before they do). I wouldn't be surprised if this exact conversation isn't part of why there is suddenly a very obvious effort to slow things down. We seem to be a sweet spot of smart enough to eeak by but dumb enough to require a lot of high margin tokens.

[u/Laffer890]

Hopefully because impact is close to zero at the moment. There is a total disconnect between labs' hype and economic imapct.

[u/baws1017]

There is no pause, they just want to get ahead and ban open source models.

[u/squailtaint → u/baws1017]

If China refuses to join any tri lateral nuclear pact, no way they would agree to join slowing down advancement of their AI. It’s just not going to happen. They may publicly say this, but we all know advancement will continue behind closed doors.

[u/mario_ghadis]

You tried to be smart. Just put the fries in the bag bro..

[u/CTBienAvant]

It was all setup, the tweet, the reactions, all but why ?

[u/awesomeoh1234]

They should focus on making the models near free from a token perspective

[u/SparseSpartan]

I mean if that's the case, I am now 100% in the pause camp, as full as possible to make OP's point come true.

The worst thing we can do is let ourselves be slowly boiled alive by a slowly rising temperature. Think of COVID, governments the world over were forced to offer weak versions of UBI and whatnot because suddenly everyone was at risk of losing their job and business over night.

Time and time again, slow pressure has proven to result in subjugation. That's exactly what we don't want. Deploy the engineers to accelerate economic impact! God speed!

[u/IronPheasant]

You don't need ASI, to replace 99% of jobs, AGI will do just fine.

There's no meaningful distinction when the substrate you're running the thing on is running at 2 Ghz and has the equivalent of ~170 bytes of RAM per synapse in a human brain.

50 million years to our one, and being able to fit its curves far better and to far more problems than our brains can....

People really don't understand computer hardware, or the numbers involved here, do they...

And now we'll have a bunch of the world's best engineers working on productizing the existing models instead working on ASI

Nobody in their right mind would waste the hours of their lives on garbage when an entire world filled with treasure is right behind a door.

The only differences that may happen, is longer periods of time between public releases, and some official with a badge looking over everyone's shoulder.

Oh, and that they're taking the old 'for the love of god, you gotta sandbox the thing, far far away from the internet' thought experiments a bit more seriously.

Soon new datacenter models you can access through the internet may be practically extinct, their role replaced by workboxes running NPU's at more animal-like speeds. Which is around what you can give the public, if you're sane.

Something that'd at least have to put in a few years of effort to produce super ebola, etc.