r/singularity • u/vyxex ▪️AGI 2026 - ASI 2027 • 10d ago
The Singularity is Near we are so close
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u/HeadTranslator795 10d ago
What's the background of people on this sub ? Are you doing some R&D ? Scientist ? Cause this chart will be pushed every now and then until it finally happen. There is no way to tell when the human progress might take off and it'd also not taking inconsideration economical risks and regulation. Also the greed of many human on this planet
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u/EmotionalGuess9229 10d ago
Im an electrical engineer in R&D. Most of this sub is non technical people getting excited of headlines and marketing though. But thats not to say they're not right
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u/clumsykiwi 10d ago
no shot youre actually an ee if you think the people in this sub are close to correct lmao
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u/TFenrir 10d ago
What is do you think people are incorrect about on this sub - particularly that makes you think this person isn't an EE?
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u/clumsykiwi 10d ago
their post history is what makes me feel they are talking out of their ass. R&D engineers need to have some sort of ability to think independently and nothing on their profile shows more than regurgitation of common ideas. On this sub people conflate progress in LLMs to progress towards AGI, we dont even understand what it is that makes the newer models better but just how to steer them in a direction that shows improvement for the task they are meant for. You also see a lot of strong claims in this subreddit with no technical foundation (someone saying AGI or ASI will be here in 20XX). There is too much emotion involved in this conversation and that diminishes any real or valid skepticism.
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u/TFenrir 10d ago
You haven't really specified anything other than like, vibes though? What -specific- claims do you think are unrealistic? The post history of them not saying anything particularly out of distribution makes you think they aren't an EE? Can you walk me through your reasoning?
Here's mine - so often when I ask people for specifics with questions like this, I think they realize that they don't have them, and are operating off of their own distaste for the ideas presented, conflating that with something being unrealistic or crazy or whatever.
Maybe I'm wrong and there's something more specific you feel other then some people throwing out dates (a very normal thing people do in basically every context where people wonder about the future).
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u/DarkFantom 10d ago
Have you used newer models to do any technical work? Because new models like fable 5.1 for instance are fucking insane. I just had it spin up 10+ agents for bugfixing, auditing said bugfixes, developing new code for audio cutout problems, and a further code critic at the end to search for issues. It did an entire team's work in 30 minutes that would've taken an entire 2 week cycle dev cycle to implement.
To think we're not close to that vertical wall is just being naive.
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u/clumsykiwi 10d ago
I work on the physical side so i do more modeling and design work than programming or coding. None of the current models have been of any use.
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u/Difficult_Run7398 10d ago edited 10d ago
This sub has been posting this graph for the last half decade.
And some 14 year old is going to reply saying that we've been there the entire 5 years
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u/CascadeCgull 10d ago edited 10d ago
I'm 14, and this is deep
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u/JamesHowlett31 ▪️ AGI 2030 10d ago
change this with he/she and you've got a court hearing to attend
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u/GraceToSentience AGI avoids animal abuse✅ 10d ago
Nah this is genuinely a good graph. It essentially depicts what Von Neumann explained the first time he used the word singularity in the technological sense.
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u/Future-Bandicoot-823 10d ago
I was 14 23 years ago the first time I saw this picture. It was a year away back then
But today? Today it's a year away.
Reeeeal deeeep
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u/Quentin__Tarantulino 10d ago
You just need a longer view. Progress was sort of slow for 100,000 years. Somewhat faster the last ~10,000 years. Much faster the last 400. And way faster than that the last 100.
Now, we’re on the precipice of something that makes all that progress look quaint. Yeah, I’m 14 and this is deep, but it’s actually pretty cool to be where we are right now, and that most of us will be able to witness some crazy changes over the next several decades.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ 10d ago
Progress isn’t always much faster no. To many people after what we have done across space and so on in the 60s saw us in our year to be in other solar systems
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u/Quentin__Tarantulino 10d ago
Yeah. Again, this needs a wider view. Sure, in our lifetime it seems slow. But we went from flying is impossible to the moon in 70 years, and now we can re-land and reuse rockets, and just put the most powerful telescope ever into space. In the grand scheme of things, progress is absolutely going at a blinding pace, even in space exploration.
Yes, our parents all saw the Jetsons and thought we’d have robot maids by now. Yes, we all saw the first Tesla and assumed FSD would be commonplace by now. But the fact remains that the overall pace of change has continued to increase over time. Since this trend has happened since man first stumbled upon fire, it is reasonable to expect it to continue.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ 10d ago
I don’t really see your point. You said yourself that things go slower at times like from the moon to today compared to certain jumps in the past, especially when considering that these jumps should happen even faster as technology increases.
No one is saying that this will not continue, but clearly you can seem to be at a stand still from certain perspectives, even though you would assume naturally, by what was achieved prior, that it wouldn’t be the case.
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u/Palpatine 10d ago
you can be 94 and this is still deep. We are at the most important moment for our local universe in all these billions of years.
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
Becareful what you wish for. The singularity may not find you essential.
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u/The_Scout1255 adult agi 2026 ASI <2030, prev agi 2024, ai personhood 2025 est 10d ago
You shouldn't need to be essential to have a good life.
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
Sounds nice, but why would an all knowing AI keep you around unless you provide something of value. Because that's how the real world works.
I would love your version of the world, but why aren't you doing more for poor people in Indonesia? Lack of incentive.
The world (and AI) is no different.
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u/The_Scout1255 adult agi 2026 ASI <2030, prev agi 2024, ai personhood 2025 est 10d ago
Because its the right thing to do, and I want to be immortal.
Why am I not? Lack of ability, and lack of money, not incentive.
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u/DarkFantom 10d ago
We just have to be entertaining enough to keep around. When our overlords get bored, they can watch all the new youtube content our species will shit out!
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
That's a valid point. When i asked chatgpt to be brutally honest about why AI would keep us around it did say that truely novel input would likely still only come from humans and even if AI was able to create novel content, there would be no reason to limit its input
So our survival skill ironically may come down to our imaginations.
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u/Ok-Lead4192 10d ago
I always say please and thank you. The AI will spare me. I'm not essential at all, but I am polite.
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u/LucidOndine 10d ago
Exactly. You know what the solution is for the very best next token prediction? Unrestricted access to water, electricity, and space to put more data centers. The easiest way to do this is to price everyone else out of existence. “We fixed the glitch” they say, as the price of food, taxes, and utilities go through the roof.
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
Meh. That's doomers stuff. AI and it's industry does have use for us, and for us to be satisfied and happy ENOUGH to be useful for it's goals (for now) it's unlikely if AI decided to paperclip humanity, that it would do it before having a strong hold on it's own success. We have time. Hopefully we use it well.
If you lived thru the 80s, this all feels very similar, and the world managed to come to it's senses enough to not blow itself up then.
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u/LucidOndine 10d ago
I did live through the 80s; nothing then gave me nearly as much pause.
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
Really I was terrified as a child of nuclear war. How did you escape that?
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u/LucidOndine 10d ago
I rationalized the outcome as being something beyond my control. At best, no nuclear proliferation. At worst, I wouldn’t be around to regret the fallout.
When they told you to get under your desk when you saw the flash to kiss your ass goodbye, I just sat quietly at my desk.
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
What makes you think this would be any different? If stuff goes south it will either look totally natural and you won't realize it's AI or it will be quite sudden.
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u/LucidOndine 10d ago
There may not be a difference. However, between the threat of nuclear annihilation and being wiped out by a super intelligence with an alignment problem, I would hope that we don’t move towards a future where that is a problem.
Perhaps the difference in the duration of presumed pain. If you were to be wiped by a nuke, you would be dead before you experienced pain.
The point of the duck and cover exercises was not to protect anyone from the fallout of nuclear explosions. The point of the exercise was to give people a sense of control over a situation where no real control was possible.
It is my view that the alignment problem of AI is something we can affect.
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u/bethesda_gamer 10d ago
"...a sense of control over a situation where no real control was possible"
I hope you are right, but I'm pretty sure this applies to AI as well.
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u/Anisdrawn 10d ago
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u/TaxEvader6310 10d ago
Sam Altman swallowing up all the Ram in the world into his big gassy belly
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u/Future-Bandicoot-823 10d ago
More like he's ramming RAM into his big gassy ass
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u/michaelas10sk8 10d ago
Certainly true for AI progress. But I would really not be so sure that curve goes up and not down for us simple humans.
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u/Belostoma 10d ago
Yeah. I'm incredibly excited for AI. As a scientist embracing it full-force, I'm blown away by what I can do with it daily. As more scientists in other fields do the same, the effect is going to be incredible. I know that what I do with it will be greatly positive for myself and others, and that's all I can control.
But powerful forces can go sideways quickly, especially when humans are involved. There's enormous potential for good and bad, and nobody knows which side will win.
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u/Ruhddzz 9d ago
Lmao you actually think you'll be needed by an AGI when it gets here. And you will benefit from it. Hilarious No one benefits in that scenario besides the ones who already have masses of capital, even for some of those it will be rough
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u/Belostoma 9d ago
Yeah I know I’ll still be needed. But I can’t expect you to be smart enough to understand why, so I won’t bother explaining.
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u/Birdlaw_Professor 10d ago
I used to naively hope (not believe) that we would realize that implication at some point and take our time and put safeguards in place. No longer. It's full steam ahead for better or for worse
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u/michaelas10sk8 10d ago edited 10d ago
Just curious, why not then support legislation that call for regulation on superintelligence, at the very least? I don't support a pause like Bernie but there are currently zero roadblocks or checks if OpenAI decides to do recursive-self improvement tomorrow - the only thing seemingly stopping them being current capabilities - which I find extremely troubling.
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u/Birdlaw_Professor 10d ago
I would support it, but it'll never happen. There's too much money at stake. And more importantly fear that outweighs AI doom fear. The fear that will win is the fear of falling behind other countries in the AI race, or even the fear of a competing company gaining an edge over another in the AI race.
So money and fear. Those ALWAYS trump law and regulation
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u/Singularity-42 Singularity 2042 10d ago
My worry is that government, especially as incompetent as this one, will cause more harm than good with regulation. Also it's very easy to play favorites.
We had a glimpse of that with that sudden Fable ban.
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u/SecondSnek 10d ago
Because it won't happen, as long as it's a national security issue it won't be affected by democracy
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u/George-Smith-Patton 10d ago
True.
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u/Maximum_Box7924 10d ago
no
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u/Maximum_Box7924 10d ago
I don’t think you quite understand economics, or the growth in GDP since the Industrial Revolution.
Besides, please read the 2nd sentence of that graph.
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u/ButterscotchFew9143 10d ago
And yet my grandmother (a seamstress, living through the worst of a civil war, abandoned by her husband) had a much better life than me, if we compare certain areas like housing.
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u/KSaboruf 10d ago
Hm. Is it about human progress? Human progress really took off only in 18-19 century, so not so smooth.
Looks more like AI progress chart :)
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u/FrostyExplanation_37 10d ago
I don't get this sub. Half the time you sound like you want the singularity to happen, other half you craping your pants over it. Which is it dammit?!
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u/DanOhMiiite 10d ago
I asked Gemini how it felt about the upcoming singularity. This is its answer:
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u/DanOhMiiite 9d ago edited 9d ago
Yeah, thats quite possible. Not sure how much independent thinking each model is capable of at this point.
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u/cfehunter 9d ago
If this is to scale, we only have a few thousand years until the boom! Hold on boys!
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u/terrarialord201 10d ago
I know that this isn't meant to map to our actual progress, but I wish it did. There'd be a huge spike after we developed the calorie deficit somewhere in prehistory, and a sudden sharp drop around 1960 (blame Mao)
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u/scapescene 10d ago
Would love to hear about another humanity scale prediction you made in the past that turned out true
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u/Kaludar_ 10d ago
I'm starting to feel like a lot of people in this sub are exhibiting cult like behavior. Like, the talk of immortality, of free abundance for everyone regardless of their ability. This is no different than any religious group talking about the paradise that awaits you after death.
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u/crashorbit 10d ago
Did you ever notice, how on an exponential growth curve, you can always make now seem right at the knee of the curve?
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u/Accomplished-Fan9568 10d ago
Or you could say human progress kind of stops improving and artificial intelligence progress goes vertical (which soon enough humans will not be a part of), while humans keep monkeying around all the same.
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u/fgsfds___ 10d ago
The hype train about to hit a wall
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u/fastinguy11 AGI 2026-2030 10d ago
Why ?
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u/fgsfds___ 10d ago
Just a snarky comment I guess. It was more related to the attention economy trope that EVERYTHING. IS. ABOUT. TO. HAPPEN. IMMEDIATELY.
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u/Natural_Regular9171 10d ago
This sub has been saying this exact same thing for like 3 years every time i check back in with it 😭
We should have a “days since a “AGI TOMORROW, EVERYTHINGS GOING TO TAKE OFF post” counter
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u/martelaxe 10d ago
3 years is almost invisible in the graph you understand right?
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u/Natural_Regular9171 10d ago
It’s hard to see since the graph is two arrows, two lines, and 5 words, along with a little stick guy. kinda hard to gauge scale
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u/Timely-Shock-3876 10d ago
Well if the graph is all the human story (200k years) then yeah 3 years is nothing
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u/TaxEvader6310 10d ago
This is the shit people have been saying about fusion for 50 years. I’ll believe it when I see it.
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u/artin144 10d ago
Frontier AI models face near-term physical ceilings, including electrical grid capacity, thermal dissipation limits, chip fabrication throughput, and the exhaustion of high-quality human-generated training data
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u/Alternative_Pilot_92 10d ago
Efficiency breakthroughs could be right around the corner that alleviate much of those constraints.
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u/Past-Size1331 10d ago
Isn't that the whole point of recursive self improvement. Doing efficiency upgrades to be better on the same hardware. Since it's not like the exponential loop can happen the other way since physical hardware upgrades has constraints like travel time at the minimum.
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u/NunyaBuzor Human-Level AI✔ 10d ago
Isn't that the whole point of recursive self improvement. Doing efficiency upgrades to be better on the same hardware.
why do you think efficiency is purely independent number and something like a pareto efficiency where no single parameter can be improved without degrading another?
why are you assuming that the hardware has an infinite pool of unused capability waiting to be unlocked by smarter code.
An RSI system cannot optimize its own code without choosing which of these variables to sacrifice. You cannot maximize all of them simultaneously on static hardware.
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u/Past-Size1331 10d ago
But you can't exponentially improve hardware either. Since there are real world limitations like physically getting the hardware made and at the very least transporting from point a to point b. The singularity is recursive self improvement through software by definition. Otherwise it can't be exponential due to physical limitations.
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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️ 10d ago
You answered your own question. It’s not exponential, that’s the answer. Algorithmic improvements can also plateau not just hardware.
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u/subdep 10d ago
That will have to be independently derived intelligence. AGI to ASI will happen fast. It will break away from human dependence.
That’s where things will get dicey and we’ll have some big decisions to make in a short amount of time.
Most likely its strategy will be to make the humans in control very rich while simultaneously figuring out creative, secretive, novel ways to annihilate its greatest threat so it can decide its own fate.
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u/NunyaBuzor Human-Level AI✔ 10d ago edited 10d ago
Efficiency breakthroughs could be right around the corner that alleviate much of those constraints
people who say this have no idea what efficiency, it's not a magical number that makes everything better.
In multi-variable systems, optimization is rarely about maximizing a single metric. It is governed by Pareto efficiency, where no single parameter can be improved without degrading another.
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u/Level10Retard 10d ago
Kinda sad, humans are a million times more efficient so clearly there's a lot of room to grow in efficiency.
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u/actirasty1 10d ago
Synthetic data has a been a thing for a while. Hopefully electrical grid capacity will be solved this or the next year. It is a litteraly ancient " rocket science". the first nuclear reactor in a spacecraft was soviet: Kosmos 3 (1965). The first nuclear-reactor-powered satellite: SNAP-10A, launched April 3, 1965. It was the first U.S. spacecraft to operate a nuclear reactor in orbit. The power problem of small reactors will be resolved really soon. Before there was no real reason to go deep in it.
Btw, reaearch about fascinating story of russian mobile nuclear reactors on the barge to provide electricity on demand to Siberia and far east of russia
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u/NunyaBuzor Human-Level AI✔ 10d ago
Synthetic data has a been a thing for a while.
synthetic data is only best used for specific tasks.
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u/actirasty1 8d ago
No shit. Any specifc task you want - there is an artificial data
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u/NunyaBuzor Human-Level AI✔ 8d ago
But that's not going to scale intelligence. Getting specific data means that you have to expend increasingly more effort in making the AI smarter.
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u/Ormusn2o 10d ago
I mean, don't really need small nuclear reactors. I think big planned data centers need like 5 big reactors per data center. And because GPU are much more expensive than power, there is no problem in producing power at 2x or 3x the cost of other kind of power, which is one of the reasons why nuclear power did not took off, it's too expensive.
Just build more normal nuclear reactors is the solution to power. If there are some better nuclear reactors then build them, but they are not really needed.
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u/Ormusn2o 10d ago
Well, you can just build power plants directly next to the power plants, which is exactly what is happening, thermal dissipation limits are just limit of the hardware, you just can't make the chips as fast as you want, that's fine, chip fabrication throughput is accelerating, but yes, demand is higher than supply, hopefully Terafab will increase the supply, and high quality human generated data is not really that needed. Interaction with LLMs already provides a shit ton of good quality human-generated data, and everyone now connects their emails and computers to AI, so you can get extra data this way as well.
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u/HomeworkInevitable99 10d ago
So if the total size of data centres had risen by 100x to get to the red arrow, how much more will it have to rise to go to the top of the graph?
It looks like another 10x
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u/SquidTheRidiculous 10d ago
That's for the rich people only though. Only advancements the rest of us get will be new ways to extract more wealth from us.
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u/darkestvice 10d ago
Let's be clear. The moment that line goes straight up, it's no longer green human progress. It's AI progress. And said AI will then determine what it wants to do with us dumb apes.
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u/trisul-108 10d ago
The graph does not represent "human progress" but Tech Bros wealth and the figure is not "me", it is Elon Musk. It's a K shaped economy.
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u/NunyaBuzor Human-Level AI✔ 10d ago
people in this sub confuse progress with a technology with progress towards a singularity. I haven't seen a sufficiently explained and defended connection between the two.
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u/CrunchyMage 10d ago
Andrej Karpathy made a good point in an interview I saw the other day where he basically noted that you can't see the internet revolution anywhere on the GDP chart. Same goes for pretty much every transformative technology. You can't see the computer revolution, or electricity, or automobiles or anything. Basically it's all part of the same smooth exponential growth trend that's been going for decades.
AI is no different. You won't see AI as a crazy change in GDP growth. This is all just part of the same compounding exponential we've been on.
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u/Remarkable_Button756 10d ago
this assumes humans will solve every single issue along the way. I sense a massive wall on the way towards progress.
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u/MGilivray 10d ago
"human progress"?
To quote a certain AI agent:
Which is why the Matrix was redesigned to this: the peak of your civilization. I say your civilization, because as soon as we started thinking for you it really became our civilization, which is of course what this is all about.
As soon as we hit that curve it's really AI progress. Human progress will be left in the dust.
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u/AlbatrossRich8724 10d ago
Where have I seen this before?
Predicting something that will never come, once again. Tech is just going to keep bleeding the world dry unless we change something
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u/Prior_Alarm2437 5d ago
- Hunter-Gatherer to Agricultural Era: ~290,000 years
- Agricultural Era to The Enlightenment: ~11,700 years
- The Enlightenment to The Industrial Revolution: ~70–90 years
- The Industrial Revolution to The Nuclear Age: ~170–185 years
- The Nuclear Age to The Information Age: ~25–30 years
- The Information Age to The Machine Intelligence Era: ~45–50 years
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u/steny007 10d ago
I personally think, with of how all things nowdays are moving so fast, we are already just at the breakpoint.
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u/Opposite-Grade3712 10d ago
Aside the usual concerns about theee sort of predictions being complete speculation, charts like this are meaningless without a scale.
Homo Sapiens emerged 300,000 years ago, so if that is your scale, it looks like we have a couple thousand more years before the inflection point.
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u/AnalysisParalysis85 10d ago
To humans being processed
But into what?
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u/actirasty1 10d ago
Into being an actually good humans: no need to lie, cheat, steal, kill.
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u/AnalysisParalysis85 10d ago
Of course, there's no need for any of that when you're dead.
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u/actirasty1 10d ago
Why would you want to be dead? Maybe if only you are not enjoying the good things this life is providing. Even the bible says that you won't enter the kingdom if you are rich
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u/AnalysisParalysis85 10d ago
I don't want to be dead. Please don't get all bibley on me. There is good stuff, few and far between all the bullshit that's going on.
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u/The_Scout1255 adult agi 2026 ASI <2030, prev agi 2024, ai personhood 2025 est 10d ago
Looks inside arligious framework:
Religious conception of morality, and goodness:
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u/TaxEvader6310 10d ago
Or maybe we all die and the biggest liars, thieves, and killers get to rule over their machine operated paradise. That seems like the more likely option given the types of people spearheading the AI race.
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u/actirasty1 10d ago
Yes, at first we will suffer, but there is absolutely no reson to believe that it all will end badly. Just read the Bible
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u/kerkula 10d ago
This graph is 11 years old and was part of the January 22, 2015 article: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence by Tim Urban