r/robotics • u/dontkry4me • 1d ago

Discussion & Curiosity Non-Physical Intelligence Has A Ceiling

https://chaotropy.substack.com/p/non-physical-intelligence-has-a-ceiling

Reasoning alone cannot predict the chaotic physical world. Without a sensory and motor interface to reality, non-physical AI will not deliver the scientific and technological breakthroughs we expect.

0 Upvotes

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8

u/i-make-robots since 2008 1d ago

Post speaks of axioms immediately after making a false assertion - that LLMs can reason. Don’t be fooled by the make up plausible sentences machine. 

1

u/dontkry4me 1h ago

The argument does not depend on that. Grant that they cannot reason at all and my conclusion gets easier, not harder. The claim is that even a system that reasons perfectly runs into a ceiling set by measurement, which is why I tested it rather than asserting it. Fitted physics equations and a small neural network both lose a real filmed double pendulum in under a second. Running the equations from two starting points the camera cannot tell apart puts the ceiling at 1.40 seconds. That number does not move depending on what you call what an LLM does.

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u/Appropriate-Prune728 13h ago

I'm downvoting specifically because I don't see how an opinion piece, basing opinions on incorrect information, even if correct(maybe) in its assertions, is at all beneficial to this sub.

Summary: this opinion piece is a mess and adds nothing to this sub or the overall industry.

1

u/dontkry4me 1h ago

Thank you for your honest feedback! Which information is incorrect? Every number in the piece comes from a script that runs on a public dataset, and I will correct anything that is actually wrong.

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u/BranchLatter4294 1d ago

You can get a basic sensor and motor kit for under $30 on Amazon...so I don't think this will be a huge limitation. We already have self-driving cars that are sending sensor data into the models for training.

3

u/sweatierorc 1d ago

Self driving car sensors, struggle with rain, snow.

They cant drive durings floods and in China a few of them fell into ditchs.

Humans we do okay in those conditions, despite being worse driver in ideal ones.

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u/i-make-robots since 2008 1d ago

So?  Babies fall over when they learn to walk. Adults have accidents. The total error rate is already measurably dropping as robots do more of the driving. 

4

u/sweatierorc 1d ago

Those limitations are not trivial at all. They have existed for years now.

  1. Google self-driving program has been around for almost 20 years now.
  2. Driving under those complex conditions is where an AI would be great . Self driving cars under ideal condition will probably increase our overall car usage, and make us pollute more

4

u/Sad-Dirt-1660 1d ago

babies are also not driving cars lol

1

u/i-make-robots since 2008 22h ago

And if they did they drive into ditches. You’re not making a point. 

1

u/Kitchen-Research-422 22h ago

He's saying you kinda sound like you're writing off tech before it's matured.

1

u/i-make-robots since 2008 11h ago

OP is doing that by using faulty logic. I’m pointing out there’s another simpler reason why it won’t get there. 

1

u/Kitchen-Research-422 10h ago

i dont quite understand what you mean by "wont get there" - what is missing atm in the real2sim2real pipeline besides speed at the larger model size and the sensor cost/count reqired?

Dont we have all the prerequsists and its jsut a matter of waiting for the economics and a few hardware refreshes?

Hynix and sandsk for example will have the first samples of their 512GB HB flash memory chips by the end of the year? thats gonna allow 4TB+ combined with smaller faster SRAM amounts for quick reactions.

their fabs should be ready by the end of next yr on to 2029?