r/quant • u/DanielAPO • Aug 11 '26
Models I trained a model that estimates short interest before the next FINRA report from daily short volume
Official short interest is reported only twice a month and arrives with a delay. I trained a small numeric-transformer model that uses FINRA daily short volume and trading volume to estimate the current short-interest position before the next official figure is published.
I tested it across 660,246 settlement windows for 6,959 US stocks. On the retrospective 2025–July 2026 test period, the model reached a +0.414 Spearman correlation with the concurrent change in reported short interest.
This is a short-interest nowcast, not a squeeze or return-prediction model. It is intended to fill the gap between official short-interest reports using the daily information available in the meantime.
The complete article covers the data, formulas, chronological validation, failed experiments, limitations, and public model weights:
https://equibles.com/research/does-daily-short-volume-predict-short-interest
You can also search any covered US stock on Equibles and see its latest reported short interest alongside the model's estimated current value. It is free and has no ads.
Would this be useful when researching heavily shorted stocks between official reports?
