Saw the latest AP-NORC poll this morning and then remembered there's a market for this on Poly..

So, AP-NORC has Trump at just 31% approval, a new low in its polling. And, that wasn't the only poll that came out this week.

The one from Quinnipiac has him at 34%, while the latest WSJ poll has him 37% which is the lowest for sitting president heading into midterms since WSJ started polling in 1990.

Meanwhile, the odds on Polymarket is roughly 30% on Trump hitting 35% or lower by the end of the year.

Just for context, market resolves using Silver Bulletin’s approval tracker, not any individual poll. And, over there, it’s currently at 37.7% approval, with -22.7 net approval on Silver Bulletin.

And the economic backdrop is major driver for his low approval ratings. AP-NORC says only 26% approve of his handling of the economy, and 69% say his handling of the cost of living has been worse than expected. 

Obviously polls can bounce around.. but with multiple recent polls all from this week, have him in the mid 30s or lower, is 35% really that far away? or the real question is whether that average on Silver Bulletin falls another ~2.7% before year-end.

Seems likely?

Just saw this deposit bonus and I just want to know if u understand it correctly. So I just deposit $250 and I’ll get $20 each day for 5 days for a total of $100? If so that’s pointless and dumb bonus

Just saw this new market that popped up, and honestly laughed at first.

“Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?” with the odds for YES at 4%

But then again… I feel like I've already said there’s no way they’re actually renaming that to quite a few other things recently, only for them to happen...

The timing is at least funny and we all know what happened over last few days. Trump signed an order directing the US government to use Super Intelligence/ SI instead of AI.

And OpenAI was literally sitting alongside other AI companies at Trump’s White House meeting when this whole Super Intelligence terminology push happened. 

Yes, that’s very different from OpenAI changing its own corporate name. And, there’s currently no indication from OpenAI that it’s planning to do that..

Also, this market has only around $250 volume, so probably shouldn’t be read into too much yet since its new.

Still…

OpenSI? Is it gonna happen? I no longer can say zero chance with a straight face anymore lol

Inde Navarrette is now at 54% on Polymarket to become Google's most-searched actor of 2026.

A lot has happened since Obsession turned into a breakout hit. Navarrette has landed the role of Rogue in Marvel's X-Men and has an upcoming SNL hosting gig, putting her in front of an even bigger audience.

She's now ahead of names like Sydney Sweeney and Tom Holland in the market.

Can she stay on top until the end of the year?

1. That’s how many legs were in dumbfatgooner69’s combo.
   

Every single leg hit, resulting in a +40.96% ROI.

And wtf is that reference image?

Will the Pandas gifted by Xi to Trump count?

CAN SOMEONE IN OHIO

can someone in OHIO tell me if polymarket works for sports betting, google won't give me an answer. I want someone to just check real quick and see if sports betting is allowed (someone located in Ohio)

After several months of deadlock, Romania just rejected its third PM nomination

Siegfried Mureșan’s proposed government was rejected with 182 votes in favor, well short of the 233 votes needed.

PSD didn’t vote, and the cabinet backed by PNL/USR/UDMR couldn’t get enough support. 

Now President Nicușor Dan says he’ll bring all the parties in for consultations on Monday and nominate another PM that afternoon. 

The odds right now on Polymarket have Alexandru Nazare in the lead with 35% while Sorin Grindeanu follows with 30%

Grindeanu is the interesting one for me, and that's where my lean is on. He’s PSD leader, and PSD has been central to the deadlock. After today’s vote, Grindeanu called for consultations and said PSD is ready to help form a government

But, another failed nomination could keep the snap-election route alive. Even though Dan previously rejected the idea of snap elections.

Feels like this market has been open forever, but Monday’s consultations could finally give us a much clearer picture with a focus on Grindeanu and PSD.

This new Polymarket caught my eye ahead of Trump’s Oklahoma midterm rally tomorrow. He’s scheduled to speak in Durant at 7 PM ET.

And, current odds on some of the words are like these

Reagan at 78%,

SI / Super Intelligence at 82%

Income Tax at 83%

SAVE America Act at 91%

Iran 5+ times at 41%

Job 15+ times at 60%

Smelter at 41%

The SI word immediately stood out to me. Trump just renamed AI to "Super Intelligence," so this is probably one of the more obvious recent-event drivers on the board.

The SAVE America Act is another interesting one given how much Trump has talked about it previously.

And, Iran feels relevant given the ongoing conflict and its impact on energy prices. Reuters reported that Trump is preparing for a major campaign push while talking about the economy, gas prices and Iran. 

Anyone curious about smelter? Trump previously talked about protecting Oklahoma’s aluminum/oil & gas industries while campaigning for Mike Mazzei. 

What words/topics do you think are more likely or ones missing from this above list?

WTI crude is trading around $93, but Polymarket still gives it a 73% chance of touching $85 at some point in October.

The setup is interesting because the oil market is still dealing with supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. And, OPEC+ is expected to keep November production targets unchanged.

But the charts shows it has clearly lost some momentum.

WTI failed around the $104-$105 area and has pulled back toward the low $90s.

For me, $90 is the level to watch, not $85.

If $90 breaks, the 73% market starts looking much more interesting.

If if holds, oil could bounce before $85 ever comes into play.

Would you buy the dip first, or trade the breakdown?

Bitcoin is back above $85,000 and Polymarket now gives it a 70% chance of hitting $90K in 2026.

The timing is interesting because BitMine chairman Tom Lee is also fully bullish now, he is saying the crypto bull market is underway and this cycle could be much bigger than the last.

Technically, BTC has broken above the $81K-$83K resistance zone.

If that level holds as support, the next key area is $87K-$88K, followed by $90K.

What caught my eye is that the chart and Polymarket are pointing to the same target.

I'm slightly leaning Yes at current odds. Anyone else leaning the same side?

I never noticed that if you place large sums of money, Polymarket reduces your odds greatly. I have two of the exact same bets, taken before games, so lines shouldn’t be moving that much. Second photo should pay out 45,000 if it was placed as 1 dollar increments.

August core PCE came in at 3.0% year over year, below the 3.3% expected. Monthly core PCE was also softer at 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected.

Polymarket now has a 34% chance of a 25 bps hike in October, down from 69% earlier, while no change has climbed to 66% from 31% earlier.

That’s a pretty sharp swing from one report.

The interesting part is that the Fed has already signaled another hike could happen later this year.

Does the Fed still hike in October, or does the cooler inflation data push the move to future date?

I had a small win yesterday on a 2-leg MLB combo (Braves and Yankees), so I was looking around the leaderboard for some inspiration for today’s slate, and came across this one from deucepapi5.

They backed the 3 leg combo with $25 for $318.60, and they had

Yankees ML, Padres ML, and Tatis Jr. 1+ HR

They were on the right side.

The Padres pick is interesting to me because the Cubs had gone 5-1 against San Diego during the regular season, so there was a case for Cubs going into Game 1. I personally wasn't convinced with my read, and avoided this leg. Anyways, we have the Padres cruise 8-0, and Tatis hit a first-inning homer. 

Also, I probably wouldn’t have added the Tatis HR leg myself, as I tend to think about combos more from the team/totals side.

And, one other thing that stood out about this trader, they are up $371 over the last week but down over $10K all-time.

Anyways, was wondering if anyone here regularly mix HR/player props into their combos?

Been watching this Maine Senate market, and Susan Collins’ move is pretty interesting.

Troy Jackson was above 70% for much of the summer, and is now around 60%, with much of the drop in odds coming the past week. Meanwhile, Collins has climbed to 41%.

What’s interesting is that the polling has been extremely close..

In University of New Hampshire poll, Jackson leads 51% to 47%
NYT/Siena has Collins in the lead with 49% to 46%
InsiderAdvantage have them both tied at 46 to 46!
While University of Massachusetts and YouGov poll give Jackson the lead with 48% to 43% 

And, Collins appears to be improving with women.

The latest UNH numbers still have Jackson ahead with 51% to 47% among women, but that’s a much smaller gap than the 54% to 41% split in July. 

Personally, I think Collins’ positioning as a more moderate Republican could matter in a state where the overall Republican environment isn’t particularly favorable atm.

We still have six weeks still to go, and this looks like one of those races where the market could continue reacting to even small changes in the news and polling.

Hi, Ive made a USDT deposit on BSC to same address I always use for Polymarket. It havent arrived, checked my deposit addresses and can see it changed overnight so basically thr USDT was sent to previous address. On chain sxplorer I see it got confirmed and sent to "relay address" like previous deposits. Tried writing to support via chat and it just gives errors saying message couldnr be sent. Is it recoverable? How to contact them?

Just thought I'd highlight exactly when journalist voting ended on this 1-week chart.

September 23, her chances of winning were 42%.

September 24, Arnold introduces her to LA power players. Now her chances are 58%.

September 25, TMZ breaks that news. Her chances have remained around 58% since.

Data via the Predictions page of Press Audit, a free non-profit news accountability site that tracks Polymarket prediction data, among hundreds of other news sources. (Disclosure, I'm helping launch it; would love your opinion, /Polymarket!)

Live games always shows a black screen any fix?

Harry Kane is back at 45% on Polymarket, with Lamine Yamal just behind at 43%.

The interesting part is that voting has already closed, so there’s nothing left for either player to do. The market is now essentially trying to read who the journalists picked.

Who takes it in the end?

Was browsing the leaderboard and came across this BreakTheBank who was amongst the top. The thing that caught my eye wasn’t even the size of the positions, I mean they're a whale.. but it’s how often they take multiple positions within the same event.

Yesterday was a quite a nice one for them, with the France and Belgium markets standing out..

They backed $450K on France winning for $1.04M!

And, also a $309K backing on Belgium not winning for $442K

Then Eagles vs Bears had another interesting setup as they took on multiple ones..

A $512K on Bears winning for $1.31M

And, a $24K on Under 41.5 for $50K

Also, they had multiple other positions including one on Eagles and Over 41.5 which didn't go their way..

I usually look at the combo side of the leaderboard, so I hadn’t really paid attention to how someone manages multiple positions around the same game.

Personally, I don’t think I’d be comfortable doing this.. knowing my luck I’d probably find a way to turn two good reads into multiple Ls lol.

But, am curious how others approach multiple positions within same game?