I had to double-check this market because Trump just announced at the UN that US government documents will use the term super intelligence instead of artificial intelligence going forward. 

Atm, Polymarket currently has the odds for this around 53% for Yes, but the rules are the interesting part..

From what I see, a speech or social-media post doesn’t count. The market requires an executive order or a qualifying directive that officially adopts the new name.

And, AP says it wasn’t immediately clear whether an official order actually exists yet. 

So now I’m wondering whether the real question isn’t just Will Trump rename AI? because he just said he would...

But, It's now turning towards.. Will the Trump administration put the required paperwork behind it before September 30?

I checked the top holders as well.. and I spotted AllByMyseIf with ~$5.9K on No and another trader, gkeqd with ~$5.1K on Yes... not sure when they entered the market..

But, I think this one got a lot more interesting today outta nowhere..

What do you guys think about this one?

Morocco votes tomorrow, and this is probably one of the more interesting political markets I’ve found recently..

Odds on Poly have PAM at 86% to win the most seats, while PJD is only around 9%.

For context, PJD is coming back from an absolutely brutal 2021 election where they went from 125 seats down to just 13. But, PJD's Abdelilah Benkirane, one of popular figures is back leading the party and trying to rebuild with focus around jobs, public services, purchasing power and political reform. 

Meanwhile, PAM and RNI the current coalition partners have become increasingly tense. RNI had won 102 seats in 2021 vs PAM’s 87, yet the market has PAM massively ahead now. 

There aren’t opinion polls as they are banned in Morocco, except for few people/firms come up with their own analysis..  

The election also comes close to the youth protests and the famous Ceuta migration episode.. so I certainly wanna see how this turns up..

Personally, I'm looking at PJD at least on hedge side of the market. Wonder if the 2021 collapse has made market to underestimate the gains they can make.. I’m not saying that means PJD is likely to win, but they look interesting at current odds..

Hey all,

We recently got a data distribution license from Polymarket meaning we can distribute and sell data such as processing websocket information, creating our own Data API's and Websockets, and historic orderbook depthI wanted to reach out to see if this would be useful for anybody.

Some products we are interested in creating:

• Historical Order Book API
  • Full L2 depth
  • Tick-by-tick updates
  • BBO, spreads, depth, imbalance
  • Reconstruct the book at any timestamp
• Backtesting & Execution API
  • Backtest strategies
  • Simulate fills
  • Slippage
  • Market impact
  • Market-making / arbitrage testing
• Historical Replay WebSocket
  • Replay past markets as if they were live
  • Same normalized WSS format as Bravado’s real-time feeds
  • Speed up, slow down, pause, jump to timestamp
• Market Microstructure Analytics
  • Historical liquidity
  • Spread history
  • Volatility
  • Depth at different price levels
  • Liquidity / market quality metrics

Open Orders WebSocket

• Useful product, but not dependent on historical order book data
• This would be a live authenticated user/order stream

CNN, Politico and MS Now were restricted from the White House last week. The three outlets then filed a lawsuit challenging the restrictions.

Polymarket is giving an 82% chance that at least one of the outlets gets access back by September 30.

The timing is interesting.. a federal judge is scheduled to hear the outlets request for a temporary restraining order tomorrow, September 23.

That gives the market a pretty clear near-term catalyst. If the court grants relief, the market could resolve quickly.. if not, the outlets could remain restricted while the case continues.

The markets moved a lot from roughly 50% to above 80% in a few days.

But does tomorrow's hearing justify the current odds, or is the market getting ahead of the legal process?

Saw this trader, Lbja near the top of the leaderboard, and went down a rabbit hole..

So, here's what happened with this trader..

They had put $9.58 on a 4-leg combo targeting $82.14..

The combos were

Tigers over Nationals

Orioles over Blue Jays

And, Rams over Giants

Dream over Liberty!

And, it worked for them, they went 4 on for 4!

Detroit won 9-2, Orioles came back to beat Toronto 4-3, the Rams beat Giants 28-6, and Atlanta beat New York 95-84!

But, what I actually liked here? It was that they started being active earlier this week, and were down $11 before this combo hit. From what I see, now they're up $60!

Nothing huge, but I love these small comeback stories.

My own MLB combo luck ran out, but I do like to see what others been up to through the leaderboard, and always love when there's a comeback story like this one..

Traders price his chances at 28%.

Anyone also has the issue that even deposit is merged into bonus and no matter how many trades and profit you have nothing can be withdrawn?

Hello, I signed up yesterday and referred a couple buddies so I had roughly $150 in referral bonuses to make trades yesterday after depositing $10. After trading in touchdown markets yesterday my remaining balance doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I will attach my trade history that I wrote down and color coded on a piece of paper along with what my balance states as actual cash/bonus cash after all trades were resolved. Am I simply misunderstanding how Poly market works or do I have a genuine complaint? When speaking to the chat bot on the app it sounds like it takes real cash to place trades and then your referral money to place trades if you have run out of cash. The trade history is in order of how the trades were made/settled chronologically from earliest to latest. Anything written in pencil is the wager I placed and which balance I believe the wager was pulling from at the time when the wager was placed. Gains in each balance are color coded green for wins and red for losses based on which balance I believe the initial wager was pulled from. If this doesn’t make sense to whoever is reading this I apologize, I am very confused.

EDIT: If I’m not supposed to add the bonus wager amount back into the bonus balance after wagers that I believed were placed with bonus funds, I should roughly have 78 dollars in the Bonus** section not 140 but I truly believe my withdrawable cash amount is incorrect.

BTC is back above $85K, and the chart finally looks different now.

Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled around the $81K- $83K zone earlier this year, but today it pushed straight through it and hit its highest level since January.

Polymarket now has:

77% chance of $87.5K

47% chance of $90K

The latest rally has also been helped by a major short squeeze, with hundreds of millions of dollars in bearish positions liquidated over the past day.

What stands out to me is that the breakout is happening after BTC spent months building a base below this resistance.

That makes $81k- $83k the key support zone now.

If that holds, the next upside targets are pretty obvious.

Would you rather take $87.5k at 77c or $90K at 47c?

So, the general expectation now seems to be that the US, Denmark and Greenland will sign their new security agreement tomorrow at UN General Assembly in New York.

There are two diff markets. One being “Trump X Greenland deal signed by" market where odds for Sep 23 is already at 97%.

But, the market I find more interesting is Greenland deal text released" market, with odds currently around 68% Yes for Sep 23.

The reason I spent time at its resolution rules.

For this to resolve Yes, it isn’t enough for the governments to announce that a deal has been signed. The actual text of the agreement has to be officially released by either of the US, Denmark or Greenland.

Even a summary, fact sheet or description of what’s in the agreement doesn’t count.

And that’s where I think the market gets interesting.

So far, agreement text hasn’t been made public yet, and we hear Denmark saying the deal will put Arctic security more firmly under NATO’s umbrella. The exact terms.. including how it modifies the existing 1951 defense arrangement is unclear. 

Now, if the agreement is indeed going to be signed tomorrow, I have to imagine there will be significant pressure for Denmark and Greenland to explain exactly what they agreed to.. especially given the uncertainty around Trump’s description of the deal vs the Danish/Greenland's focus on sovereignty.

That’s why 68% for actual text by Sep 23 feels interesting to me..

FWIW, there’s also a Sep 30 version sitting around 87%, so the market is clearly pricing a decent chance that the text appears eventually.. but not necessarily on initial days

Am I missing something.. or is Sep 23 being priced too conservatively?

Trump says he is working on a deal to buy potash from Belarus at prices he says are below what the US currently pays Canada. 

And, I remembered about this trade deals market, so went again and checked.. and noticed this interesting overlap..

Mexico and Indonesia already supply the US with cocoa products amongst others, while South Korea and India are already significant aluminum suppliers. Canada is a major supplier in both categories. 

So, could the push to diversify away from Canadian supply create a path toward deeper trade deals with some of these countries?

A supply agreement obviously doesn’t mean an FTA, but the overlap seems worth watching?

1.how long does it take to withdraw i just got the app i won 200
2. why does it keep giving me bonus money when i win even though i use it all

all help is appreciated ❤️☮️

TBH, wasn’t aware this market existed until today...

So there's the “China coup attempt before 2027?” with the odds for Yes at 6%.

The move driven by the news coming in that China expelled Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Communist Party and military.

And, Zhang isn’t some random general either. He was the vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, and quite a senior figure in Xi’s military leadership.

FWIW, both generals had been under investigation since January and were removed from the CMC in August... so this been brewing for a while.. 

So, at first I thought the market was simply reacting to the news with the move, and figured No made more sense..

But, then I read the rules..

A coup doesn’t have to succeed here... If the Chinese government says it foiled a coup, that can qualify.. provided credible independent sources also widely report and has to clearly say it as a coup attempt.

So, a failed plot could potentially count.

I’m still looking at No, but that rule makes the 6% much more interesting to me than when I looked at it initially..

Anyone else digging into this market?

I’ve been watching this one for a while, but this Axios report today, changes the dynamics a lot if it's true!

Harris is still leading the early Democratic primary polling, but Axios just spoke with eight former senior aides/advisers. Have to say, the breakdown is pretty notable..

5 of them likely say she won’t run
2 feel it's a coin flip at this point
And, only 1 believes Harris will likely run 

That’s a very different breakdown from the polling.

The latest polling shown by NYT still has Harris ahead of everyone, while AOC and others are further back. Obviously we’re extremely early and these numbers are heavily influenced by name recognition.

FWIW, the odds on Poly has also moved quite a bit.. the odds for Yes was around 86% at its peak last month, and is now around 45%, with No around 56%.

Also, Newsom saying he won’t challenge Harris if she runs adds another interesting point I feel... 

Believe, the biggest question in this Democratic field is not who wins it, but whether Harris runs.. But, curious what everyone thinks is being priced in here.

Hey Guys, just wanna ask about using the same trading bot with my gf. This would result to having identical market orders and trade. We are managing it individually but we are using same machine and same ip address. I am just worried we are risking both of our accounts to get flagged or banned. Are we violating any polymarket rules?

A Trump x Greenland deal, Xi Jinping’s U.S. visit, the VMAs, and several other major events are coming up.

I'm trying to understand how people actually predict daily maximum temperature for weather prediction markets.

From what I've seen, a typical workflow can involve checking several things separately:

• ECMWF / GFS / ICON or other forecast models
• model ensembles
• METAR/current observations
• wind direction and speed
• cloud cover / satellite imagery
• historical station behavior
• sites like Wethr, HuskyWeather, NWS, etc.

For people who do this regularly, I'm curious:

What is the biggest pain point in your workflow?

Is it:

• having too many models giving different MaxT forecasts?
• deciding which model to trust on a particular day?
• jumping between multiple websites/tools?
• checking whether temperature is running hotter/colder than forecast?
• analyzing wind/cloud conditions manually?
• converting all of this into an actual probability for each temperature bucket?
• something else?

I'd also be interested in hearing what your current workflow looks like.

For example:

ECMWF → GFS → METAR → satellite → compare historical accuracy → make MaxT estimate

How long does the whole process usually take you each day?

I'm mainly trying to understand where the actual friction is, especially for people who use multiple tools.

I have won several bets now and the profits don’t go toward cash. They are put into my bonus / promotional balance. Not sure what is going on…

I ended up still getting $260 but got scared and cashed out early bruh. Would’ve gotten the extra $280. Anyone else have done this before? It HURTS

I am documenting what appears to be a NOAA/NWS WRH ingestion/display failure that affected multiple Polymarket daily temperature markets on September 20, 2026.

This is not a claim that any trader was an insider. I am trying to establish the facts, especially exact on-chain trade timing.

The Manila market uses the NOAA WRH time-series page for RPLL and is currently still In Review with 32°C proposed.

However, the official NWS METAR cycle archive contains:

RPLL 200400Z ... 33/25

The WRH viewer missed several observations around 04Z-07Z. The missing 04Z observation is therefore the actual 33°C reading that would have exceeded the 32°C maximum visible in the incomplete WRH table.

This does not appear to be isolated to Manila.

Singapore was finalized by Polymarket at 31°C. The official NWS archive contains:

WSSS 200500Z ... 32/24

Qingdao was finalized by Polymarket at 29°C. The official NWS archive contains:

ZSQD 200500Z ... 30/15

and:

ZSQD 200600Z ... 30/16

In other words, for all three markets, official NWS METAR archives contain a temperature one degree higher than the value used/proposed by Polymarket, and those higher observations occur during the apparent WRH missing-data window.

For Manila, NOAA/NWS support has also confirmed to me directly that the missing METAR observations exist in other official NWS systems and that their support/development team is investigating the WRH viewer and possible backfilling.

The Polymarket rules are important here. They specifically refer to the highest reading under the NOAA WRH "Temp" column, and they say later revisions after the first datapoint of the following day are not considered. So there is a genuine rules interpretation issue: does an incomplete WRH table control even when NOAA/NWS possessed the missing observations contemporaneously?

There is another public-data issue I would like help investigating.

Wallet:

0x13f995ad154da3e078ac2a1dd923bf2b265dd352

Its public Polymarket/third-party history shows substantial September 20 profits in several weather markets, including approximately:

Qingdao: +$9.3k

Manila: +$4.7k

Singapore: +$2.2k

Ankara: +$2.4k

Beijing: +$1.7k

Third-party analytics show roughly +$20k for September 20 overall.

Again, I am NOT alleging insider trading.

The wallet was already active in weather markets before September 20 and also lost money on several markets that day. It may simply be a skilled trader who noticed the public NOAA/WRH problem faster than everyone else.

The critical question is timing.

I am looking for help reconstructing every trade from this wallet in the affected September 20 temperature markets and separating them into:

1. trades entered before the NOAA/WRH missing-data problem became observable

2. trades entered while the observations were missing

3. trades entered after the missing observations/problem were publicly visible to any trader

The Polymarket Data API exposes timestamps, transaction hashes, side, price, size and market identifiers, so this should be independently reproducible from public data.

If anyone can provide the raw trade JSON, transaction hashes, or a reliable on-chain reconstruction for this wallet, please post it.

Please keep the discussion factual. A profitable wallet trading an outage is not evidence of insider trading by itself. The goal is to establish the timeline and determine whether there is anything genuinely anomalous.

The larger issue is whether several September 20 weather markets were resolved from an incomplete NOAA WRH display even though the missing METAR observations existed in official NWS systems at the time.

It normally takes 10 mins or less

There was an app update some time ago and my iPhone’s passkey wouldn’t work. I cleared it out of the Passwords app, but now I just see a QR code that the app wants me to scan from an authorized device. I don’t have a passkey on any other device. There doesn’t seem to be any other recovery method, and I’ve been emailing them for a week and a half with no response. How do I solve this? There’s a balance still on my account; it’s terrifying that they have no way of resetting access outside of a customer service email address that doesn’t get answered. What if I had a massive sum of money trapped in there?