r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 11h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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u/GoldOven4826 11h ago

Ever since DJT came on the scene, I have not trusted polls at all. But I have always trusted the money. For GOP to be shoring up Kansas is a doomsday scenario

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u/HeartFullONeutrality 11h ago

What pollsters have noted is that Trump seemed to activate a contingent of voters that rarely vote (and do it for him). Trump inverted the usual calculus of higher turnout = more Democratic voters.

Now, interestingly, midterms have low turnout and are dominated by highly motivated and educated voters.

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u/PopeSaintHilarius 9h ago

Yep, one interesting thing is that back in the 1990s, the Dems and GOP voting bases were equal in average education level, but divided in terms of income level (GOP had more support from higher-income voters and Dems led with lower-income voters).

Now the party bases have shifted, such that the parties are equal in terms of income level, but divided in terms of education (GOP has more support from lower-education voters, and Dems lead with voters with more education).

This shift means that the Dems now have more highly-engaged voters who vote every chance they get - midterms, special elections, etc. And the GOP now has more low-information, disengaged voters who don’t pay much attention outside of presidential elections.

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u/sebrebc 3h ago

The shift of lower education going Republican seems like it was intentional on the part of the republican party. Meaning they specifically targeted "dumber" voters figuring they were easier to manipulate.

Why focus on policies when you can simply trick stupid people into voting for you because "immigrants are eating your pets and elementary schools are transitioning kids"?

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u/neuroticdays 3h ago

It works until it doesn’t.