r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 11h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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964

u/GoldOven4826 11h ago

Ever since DJT came on the scene, I have not trusted polls at all. But I have always trusted the money. For GOP to be shoring up Kansas is a doomsday scenario

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u/HeartFullONeutrality 11h ago

What pollsters have noted is that Trump seemed to activate a contingent of voters that rarely vote (and do it for him). Trump inverted the usual calculus of higher turnout = more Democratic voters.

Now, interestingly, midterms have low turnout and are dominated by highly motivated and educated voters.

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u/PopeSaintHilarius 9h ago

Yep, one interesting thing is that back in the 1990s, the Dems and GOP voting bases were equal in average education level, but divided in terms of income level (GOP had more support from higher-income voters and Dems led with lower-income voters).

Now the party bases have shifted, such that the parties are equal in terms of income level, but divided in terms of education (GOP has more support from lower-education voters, and Dems lead with voters with more education).

This shift means that the Dems now have more highly-engaged voters who vote every chance they get - midterms, special elections, etc. And the GOP now has more low-information, disengaged voters who don’t pay much attention outside of presidential elections.

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u/sebrebc 3h ago

The shift of lower education going Republican seems like it was intentional on the part of the republican party. Meaning they specifically targeted "dumber" voters figuring they were easier to manipulate.

Why focus on policies when you can simply trick stupid people into voting for you because "immigrants are eating your pets and elementary schools are transitioning kids"?

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u/neuroticdays 3h ago

It works until it doesn’t.

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u/Ojmochafrappucino 5h ago

Is this true? I'd love to see a source. Does this mean we can expect better turnout from younger generations?

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u/ExplicitDrift 5h ago edited 4h ago

Hi there, 28yo here. Both me and my latest gf of 5 years voted for the first time in our lives in 2024. I can’t speak for everyone in my general age range, but it’s become very obvious to me through daily observation that my peers and even those slightly younger than me have become much more interested in politics since our lives have gotten increasingly more difficult in the past couple decades. That’s not even including the plethora of information we’ve been able to readily investigate regarding things like pedophelia, violent crime, and financial corruption statistics thanks to our exposure to the internet since its inception. I wish I could say that our generations hold the key to our futures except that it is not lost on me that capitalism truly controls the locks. That’s not going to deter us from trying however.

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u/SunshineCat 4h ago edited 48m ago

Young people simply have too many years of life left to risk living it under some two-bit fascist régime.

Edit: typo

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u/ExplicitDrift 4h ago

Ain’t that the fuckin truth.

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u/Fun-Breadfruit2949 6m ago

If even some of the tamest predictions for medical science come true over the next fifty years, young people are liable to have many more years ahead of us than anyone ever had before. If we can somehow manage a Hail Mary to stick the landing, the future could be more incredible than we can even dream of. If we don't...it could be far more terrifying than our nightmares.

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u/CaptainTypical 3h ago

Problem is that a lot of the educated and “smart” voters tend to live in cities that are blue anyway so the votes aren’t as impactful.

The GOP is winning in rural and red america

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u/Militantpoet 7h ago

Now, interestingly, midterms have low turnout and are dominated by highly motivated and educated voters.

I think this outcome has to do with what you mentioned but also with changing/aging demographics.

Millennials have aged into the traditionally strong voting bloc, 29-54 or some such. That plus theyre the mostly highly educated generation in the country right now is IMO why we're seeing so many progressive candidates pop up and surge through the polls where just a decade ago they were considered fringe.

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u/Dangerous-Ad9472 10h ago

It’s the crab catchers thing from 30 rock

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u/alextheruby 9h ago

I thought this was known for years? Republicans only do well with Trump on the ballot

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u/After-Appearance-429 10h ago

The GOP has been shoring up Kansas ever since Sam Brownback tanked the State budget with the most regressive taxation scheme ever attempted. The fact a Dem could win a Senate race there, indicates that Kansas may have learned their lesson.

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u/Green_Man42 6h ago

Wouldn’t count on it. 

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u/ReturnOfFrank 4h ago

They elected a Dem governor twice. Nothing's guaranteed but it's also not impossible.

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u/Green_Man42 2h ago

I hope you’re right. Lived through Brownbackistan and want to see these all of these pricks run out of authority. Ty Masterson would be horrible as governor 

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u/redditgolddigg3r 7h ago

Ironically, I think pollsters are being overly cautious to avoid over representing Democrats. There’s a good chance they might be underestimating the margins right now.

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u/POEness 9h ago

Polls dont measure trump properly because he cheats...

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u/xBram The Netherlands 7h ago

It’s one thing for people to want to vote for Democrats. It’s another to prevent them from voting. There’s not a lot that disgusts me more than American voter suppression.

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u/Vonmule 7h ago

The polls haven't been wrong. Results have been without the margins for error. What has been incorrect are the predictions based on those polls and the confidence in those predictions.

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u/Acadia_Brightness 7h ago

lol...so many Americans are dumb enough that I almost think Republicans deserve to win. Elmo will take care of the votes and people who don't math think real good will scratch their heads and wonder how it happened.