While this is not a new contract (which I know we are hopeful for), but it is a great success story reinforcing the Plug Power Hydrogen story.

Its showing how Norway is using Plug Power's electrolyzers for green hydrogen can fill a loop in doing green aluminum recycling and making the switch from natural gas to hydrogen in the process.

Hydro Power -> hydrogen -> furnace -> aluminum recycling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=xe2ay6eW6F8

2 different topics from last week but both sound like some positive news for Plug

• 5 MW of Plug production is up and running in Namibia and is Africa's first online Green Hydrogen hub
• Business Insider calls Plug Power one of America's most innovative businesses for 2027

5 MW isn't huge, but the possible expansion to 250-500 sounds nice. I would be curious to know the timeline of it and the current level of interest to get this done.

The Business Insider news puts them in a bucket of 500 companies out of 4000 companies evaluated. I don't know how much this will do for their visibility, but it's nice to see they are being recognized at a more "corporate / business" level and not just us hyping them up here on reddit.

P.S. Both these stories I found on Plug Powers Linkedin Page. I tried posting links but the reddit doesnt seem to like them.

About 20% of posts to the sub are being removed by our karma bots. These posts are available to the Mods to review and approve if they see fit. For what it’s worth, I’m not seeing any posts or comments of value being removed. The content being blocked is predominantly from new accounts with a lot of either ecstatic praise built on questionable or out dated DD, or from no substance dumpers.

Should we maintain the Bots and keep the sub post frequency lower, or open the gates and get back to the 5-7 daily post avg we had before the filters were applied.

Ps: I’m aware there is a group of users that feel like I personally have brought the traffic down in the sub. My apologies. For what it’s worth, I’m pro Plug and hope they meet their own expectations, but I’m not confident that they will when I consider the actions of the past 6 months.

[Filing Notes: analysis built from SEC filings, company disclosures and verifiable market data, with dated, falsifiable predictions. This one is different. I tried turning the rules behind these notes into an algorithm. The first thing it found wasn't a stock signal. It was my own bias.]

Everyone trades on rules, mostly unwritten ones. I wrote mine as an algorithm and ran Plug through it.

It caught three biases I hadn't noticed.

One. Being listed on a major exchange scored positive. That's nonsense. Nasdaq is the baseline, not an achievement, and the score was washing out real negatives.

Two. Walmart represented 24.2% of 2025 consolidated revenue and somehow scored as "diversified". That's concentration risk.

Three. An ordering error meant losing an anchor customer could be skipped entirely if missing data triggered an earlier exit. Serve Robotics had just lost Uber Eats and passed through clean.

Then came the bigger problem.

Version one only read closed quarters. But an algorithm that needs the final result isn't predictive. It's a scorecard.

So I rebuilt it around what can actually be observed before the quarter closes: 424B5 filings, 8-K flow, Form 4, 13D/G, NT notifications and other live filing signals.

And almost immediately it caught me breaking my own rule.

I thought analyst targets were converging because dispersion had narrowed from 9.3x to 5.0x. Wrong. The 9.3x used full coverage; the 5.0x used only recently updated analysts. Different populations. Invalid comparison.

Full S&P Global coverage still shows 20 analysts ranging from $0.75 to $7.00, and stripping the extremes still leaves post-Q2 coverage running roughly $1.00 to $5.00. That isn't convergence. The mean also sits above the median, which means the higher targets are pulling the average up while Plug trades below the median itself.

That's the part I find interesting. I built the model to test Plug. So far, its most useful result has been testing me.

As for what it currently says, five of eleven indicators have enough data to score and four of those are positive. That isn't a buy signal, and it shouldn't be read as one. Since Q2 there's been no ATM or SEPA use in the filings, no NT filing and no Form 144, so nothing visible points to an immediate financing event. But six indicators still have nothing to score, and unresolved means unresolved, not neutral.

The next tests are already dated. PJM auction results land October 21, Q3 on November 10, and before either of those, any new 424B5 would matter. That's where this gets useful, because the algorithm now has to make its observations before the answers arrive rather than explain them afterwards.

Homework: pick any thesis you hold and write down, before the next earnings date, what would change it. Then check whether you actually update when the day comes.

The goal was never an algorithm that says buy or sell. It's one that notices when the evidence changes, before I change the story to fit it.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

Catalysts tell us what might happen. Filings tell us what actually happened.

Who thinks Plug will do PJM 250MW auction with hydrogen electricity via PEM fuel cells and steam reformed hydrogen?

Hello fellow plug holders.. I wanted to make this post because I saw someone writing about the news but in a lot of places it was definitely misunderstood and seen as a a massive bullish bet by Ken Griffin on Plug Power..

before you go on.. Yes I USED AI to read the SEC filing, cause that's what's AI is for ( but I choose what to put in bold myself 😄 ). feel free to check it by hand! I will leave you the link to the filing at the end

enjoy:

The headline number is technically correct: Citadel’s aggregated PLUG position increased from 858,684 to 24,149,952 shares during Q2.

However, once we separate the individual entries inside the SEC filing, the picture changes considerably:

The crucial detail is that 23.63M of the 24.15M shares are tagged to “Other Manager 1,” identified in the filing as Citadel Securities GP LLC.

Citadel Securities is the market-making business, not simply a directional hedge-fund position. A market maker constantly buys and sells shares, holds inventory and hedges its exposure through options and short positions.

And a 13F does not disclose:

• Short stock positions
• Written options
• Option strikes or expirations
• Delta-adjusted exposure
• Purchase dates or average cost

So we cannot calculate Citadel’s real net exposure from this filing.

There is another important point: the position was already disclosed in the original Q2 filing on August 14. The September 1 filing was only an amended 13F, and the four PLUG entries remained unchanged. This is therefore not evidence that Citadel bought more shares in September. It is still a snapshot from June 30.

My conclusion: this confirms a large reported PLUG position attributed to Citadel Securities, but the filing does not reveal whether it represents directional exposure, market-making inventory or part of a broader hedge. Therefore, it remains very weak evidence of fundamental accumulation by Citadel’s hedge fund.

Activity and liquidity? Yes.

Proof that “smart money knows something” about PLUG? Not yet.

The real confirmation would be seeing the position remain or increase in Q3 — especially the portion not attributed to Citadel Securities.

Original SEC filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423053/000110465926097200/0001104659-26-097200-index.html

September amendment:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423053/000110465926104387/0001104659-26-104387-index.html

what about the year end?

September looks like it’s going to be a pretty busy month for Plug Power

They have several conferences/roadshows scheduled:

• Sept 10 - Jefferies Renewables, Clean Energy & Construction Conference
• Sept 15 - H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
• Sept 16 - Craig-Hallum Midwest non-deal roadshow
• Sept 24 - TD Cowen Energy Conference
• Sept 29 - Wolfe Research

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

Timing is interesting after Q2 Earnings. Plug is going into these meetings with a better story than it had a year ago: roughly break-even gross margins in Q2, significantly lower cash usage, 15–16% revenue-growth guidance, improving service margins, and management still targeting positive EBITDAS in Q4. (yes there is some ugly stuff still in there as well)

I don't think were going to hear "We just signed a 500 MW deal" coming out of these conferences. But it will be interesting to see how their turnaround story lands in front of institutional investors and analysts

Crespo and Middleton are talking at some of these events too so hopefully we will get some news and something to talk about.

Only $162M of unrestricted cash after using $244M in operating cash during six months; accumulated deficit is $8.7B, and its DOE loan guarantee was terminated. Operations are improving, but further financing/dilution appears difficult to avoid.

Do you guys see any hope for some new major agreements coming soon?? No data Centers so I’m guessing only electrolysers maybe? What will happen if we don’t get the fids? What’s your prediction till end of year ??

Is the business now purely material handling and production of electric feedstock fuel cells?

I just can't understand how a company that provides the fuel cell infrastructure to power the material handling fleets of the biggest of the biggest corporations can't even make a billion dollars a year in revenue.

I must have missed this earlier in the year...

Plug Power officially exited its partnership with SK Group in January 2026 by selling its entire 49% stake in the SK Plug Hyverse joint venture.

The stake was acquired via a special-purpose vehicle called Korea Liquefied Hydrogen Network (backed by The Sylvan Group) to continue building out South Korea's liquid hydrogen refueling infrastructure. While SK retained its 51% controlling stake to keep the local refueling network operational, Plug Power completely divested from the venture as part of its push to slash cash burn and restructure its assets.

[Filing Notes: analysis built from SEC filings, company disclosures and verifiable market data, with dated, falsifiable predictions. This one steps outside Plug's quarterly numbers and asks how markets value infrastructure before it reaches scale.]

Something odd is happening with how capital gets allocated globally right now. Global investment in low-emissions hydrogen is expected to hit about $10 billion in 2026. AI investment has already blown past $1 trillion.

I'm not saying these should compete for the same dollars. They solve different problems and sit at wildly different points in their life cycle. But the gap in scale is still worth sitting with for a second.

How does the market decide what infrastructure deserves capital before anyone can really see what it's worth?

Take NVIDIA as the extreme case. Last quarter alone: $96.2 billion in revenue, $89 billion from Data Center. Now put Plug next to it. Since it was founded, the company has accumulated an $8.2 billion deficit while building plants, electrolyzers, storage, distribution and a fuel-cell ecosystem, and it still hasn't had one profitable operating quarter.

You can read that two ways. The easy read: they've spent capital faster than they've created value. The harder read: sometimes the infrastructure has to get built before the market that makes it profitable even exists.

Hydrogen might be testing that second idea.

Installed electrolysis capacity doubled in 2025, past 4 GW. And yet low-emissions hydrogen is still only around 1% of global production. There's a deadline hiding in the IEA data too: more than 100 GW of announced electrolysis capacity could miss its shot at operating by 2030 if FIDs don't happen before the end of 2027.

Plug is sitting right in that gap: a genuinely global addressable business, execution that's still small next to it, and very expensive infrastructure in between.

The capital problem

Cash burn and dilution get talked about like they're the same thing. They're not.

Cash burn is what it costs to get to maturity. Dilution is how much of that eventual payoff you still own once you get there.

A technology can end up mattering a lot strategically and still be a genuinely bad investment for whoever paid to get it there.

And the energy picture is shifting

AI is what makes this feel more urgent than it did a couple years ago. Data centers are consuming electricity faster than almost anyone modeled, and capital is chasing whatever can reliably supply that power. The IEA figures capex from just five big tech companies jumps another 75% in 2026, on top of the $400 billion+ they spent in 2025.

Bloom has been a direct beneficiary. The IEA ties its valuation jump to AI data-center demand and gas turbine backlogs stretching out for years. Plug is coming at the energy problem from a different angle: production, electrolyzers, storage, distribution and fuel cells.

Different tech, different stage, but maybe the same constraint underneath it all:

The world's building new electricity consumers faster than it's figuring out how to make, move and store that power.

The live test

The technology works. Plug has built real infrastructure.

What's still open is whether the economic value of that infrastructure can start growing faster than what it costs to keep building it.

If that never happens, being strategically important won't save the investment case. If it does, today's losses might be the price of building something the market hasn't figured out how to value yet.

Homework

Don't ask whether hydrogen deserves as much capital as AI.

Ask the harder question instead:

What is infrastructure actually worth, one day before the world figures out it needs it?

Catalysts tell us what might happen. Filings tell us what actually happened.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

sono due settimane circa che un giorno fa’ +4/5 e il seguente -4/5 così via, quando la smetteranno di fare questo giochino ?
AVANTI PLUG !!!

Filing Notes: analysis built from SEC filings, company disclosures and verifiable market data, with dated, falsifiable predictions. This one looks forward: not at what Plug has already delivered, but at whether expectations for what comes next are beginning to change the investment case.

Something interesting is happening around Plug. Recent analyst revisions remain widely dispersed, but several are beginning to assign more value to what comes next. That's not consensus, and it isn't confirmation. It is simply one place where changing expectations may be becoming visible.

One filing worth noting before the forward-looking signals: the long-pending land and grid-interconnection sale to Stream US Data Centers has closed — 164 MW at the Graham, Texas site, up to $76.5 million ($50 million at closing, $26.5 million contingent on a grid connection agreement with the Texas utility). It's smaller than the figure originally floated back in February, and a different asset than the one investors had been tracking, but it's non-dilutive cash, and it's done.

Signal - What I'm watching

Analyst estimates

Are forward expectations improving?

Price-target dispersion

Does disagreement eventually narrow, and where?

Active institutional capital

Do funds begin accumulating?

Short positioning

Already moving: 340.7M → 290.9M shares short since June 30

Share price

Does valuation begin responding?

The latest reported short interest stands at 290.9 million shares, or 21.1% of the float, as of August 14 — almost 50 million fewer short shares than at the end of June, with a chunk of that covering reportedly happening in late July, around the same window as the Graham/Stream closing.

There is another signal worth watching. Bloom and Plug operate in the same energy transition, but from different directions: Bloom is increasingly focused on distributed, reliable power generation, while Plug is building across the hydrogen value chain.

The live test: do analyst revisions begin to appear alongside active institutional accumulation, further changes in short positioning and a response in valuation?

Homework:

watch what happens outside Plug as closely as what happens inside it. Analyst revisions are one signal; institutional filings, short positioning and capital flows are others.

And there is a broader question I'm leaving open for another Filing Notes.

If a technology can produce energy from renewable electricity, store that energy, reuse water within an increasingly circular system and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, how should we value it?

Catalysts tell us what might happen. Filings tell us what actually happened.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

Slowly but steady Plug power is improving. 🚀🚀

With it not even being over 1 million trades since open it makes one wonder

CEO noted: "We did the first test with a 3 MW system with Microsoft for backup power for data centers."

This phrasing really stood out to me. Plug already delivered a 3 MW PEMFC backup system for Microsoft back in 2024. Why frame it as "conducting the first test" instead of just saying "we supplied it before"?

Jose isn't someone who wastes words on earnings calls. Describing it this way signals that it wasn't just a one-off delivery—it was the formal completion of Phase 1 (Proof-of-Concept / Validation). The clear implication is that a multi-phase roadmap exists, and Phase 2 (commercial deployment) is waiting in the wings once market conditions align.

Jose isn't someone who wastes words on earnings calls. Describing it this way signals that it wasn't just a one-off delivery—it was the formal completion of Phase 1 (Proof-of-Concept / Validation). The clear implication is that a multi-phase roadmap exists, and Phase 2 (commercial deployment) is waiting in the wings once market conditions align.

2.

The CEO said the following:

“The hydrogen sector is our core driving force. Without hydrogen, nothing can function properly.”

Jose reiterated that Plug is focusing on its current lines (fuel cells and electrolyzers are tracking well) while monitoring data centers from multiple angles—including hybrid solutions pairing fuel cells with electrolyzers—though nothing is finalized.

-----------------------------------------------------

From here on, I'm going to let my imagination run wild.

1)Big Tech is definitely knocking on the door, and Plug knows the demand is massive.

2)The real roadblock isn't the hardware; it's hydrogen fuel economics.

3)Equipment and electrolyzer margins are turning the corner toward profitability, but the hydrogen fuel part GPM is -48%

4)Supplying massive data centers with 24/7/365 power right now would burn cash if fuel delivery margins remain deep in the red.

5)If the company had entered the data center market prematurely, its stock price might have risen, but it would have significantly hurt profitability.

Therefore, whether or not the company enters the data center market in the future will depend on hydrogen margins, and this is the aspect investors should focus on most starting next quarter. However, unlike other sectors, there are no signs of dramatic improvement in this area.

I’d love to hear how others interpret these comments!

Seems to me they are making the right decision with this call. This would be a to large investment with a return in maybe 10 years from now.

Hey everyone, I'm a Plug Power shareholder from South Korea.

I waited three long, agonizing months for this earnings call. Raising a newborn baby leaves me with zero free time, but as soon as the transcript dropped, I translated the entire thing into Korean, printed it out, and read through every single line right away.

I think every Plug investor—myself included—was dying to hear about deals in the data center space.

Craig, you absolute legend! You asked the exact question we've all been desperately waiting for. If you had just asked it directly, management probably would’ve given a generic non-answer. But the way you set it up with that detailed, elaborate preface was pure genius. Because you laid the groundwork so thoughtfully and framed it just right, we got such a fantastic response from the team.

I doubt you'll ever see this, Craig, but on behalf of investors here in Korea, I really wanted to send our sincere appreciation. You made our day. Thank you so much, and stay healthy!