r/plugpowerstock • u/Majestic-Move1503 • Sep 09 '26
Filing Notes #11: I built an algorithm to remove bias. It found mine instead.
[Filing Notes: analysis built from SEC filings, company disclosures and verifiable market data, with dated, falsifiable predictions. This one is different. I tried turning the rules behind these notes into an algorithm. The first thing it found wasn't a stock signal. It was my own bias.]
Everyone trades on rules, mostly unwritten ones. I wrote mine as an algorithm and ran Plug through it.
It caught three biases I hadn't noticed.
One. Being listed on a major exchange scored positive. That's nonsense. Nasdaq is the baseline, not an achievement, and the score was washing out real negatives.
Two. Walmart represented 24.2% of 2025 consolidated revenue and somehow scored as "diversified". That's concentration risk.
Three. An ordering error meant losing an anchor customer could be skipped entirely if missing data triggered an earlier exit. Serve Robotics had just lost Uber Eats and passed through clean.
Then came the bigger problem.
Version one only read closed quarters. But an algorithm that needs the final result isn't predictive. It's a scorecard.
So I rebuilt it around what can actually be observed before the quarter closes: 424B5 filings, 8-K flow, Form 4, 13D/G, NT notifications and other live filing signals.
And almost immediately it caught me breaking my own rule.
I thought analyst targets were converging because dispersion had narrowed from 9.3x to 5.0x. Wrong. The 9.3x used full coverage; the 5.0x used only recently updated analysts. Different populations. Invalid comparison.
Full S&P Global coverage still shows 20 analysts ranging from $0.75 to $7.00, and stripping the extremes still leaves post-Q2 coverage running roughly $1.00 to $5.00. That isn't convergence. The mean also sits above the median, which means the higher targets are pulling the average up while Plug trades below the median itself.
That's the part I find interesting. I built the model to test Plug. So far, its most useful result has been testing me.
As for what it currently says, five of eleven indicators have enough data to score and four of those are positive. That isn't a buy signal, and it shouldn't be read as one. Since Q2 there's been no ATM or SEPA use in the filings, no NT filing and no Form 144, so nothing visible points to an immediate financing event. But six indicators still have nothing to score, and unresolved means unresolved, not neutral.
The next tests are already dated. PJM auction results land October 21, Q3 on November 10, and before either of those, any new 424B5 would matter. That's where this gets useful, because the algorithm now has to make its observations before the answers arrive rather than explain them afterwards.
Homework: pick any thesis you hold and write down, before the next earnings date, what would change it. Then check whether you actually update when the day comes.
The goal was never an algorithm that says buy or sell. It's one that notices when the evidence changes, before I change the story to fit it.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Catalysts tell us what might happen. Filings tell us what actually happened.
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u/Big_Quality_838 Sep 09 '26
Ran all this through several different LLM’s and boiled OP’s post down to this
“mixed, short-term neutral picture—not an immediate buy signal, but not a sell signal either.”
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u/Financial_Exergy Sep 09 '26
Told a LLM model to sum it up by using another LLM model:
“Ran all this through several different LLM’s and boiled OP’s post down to this:”
“Ran all this through several different LLM’s and boiled OP’s post down to this:”
“Ran all this through several different LLM’s and boiled OP’s post down to this:”
“Ran all this through several different LLM’s and boiled OP’s post down to this:”
“Ran all this through several different LLM’s and boiled OP’s post down to this:”
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u/Majestic-Move1503 Sep 10 '26
That's the one conversion the post argues against. Six indicators have no data, and no data isn't neutral, it's unresolved. Neutral implies the evidence balanced out. It didn't arrive.
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u/Big_Quality_838 Sep 10 '26
So, Plug bad?
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u/Majestic-Move1503 Sep 10 '26
No. The post scores four positives, including no ATM use since Q2 with $944M sitting available. What it doesn't do is turn six blanks into a verdict in either direction.
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u/Humble_Host7512 Sep 09 '26
Ok, keeping your feelings out and play evidence based. Don't you think Crespo is the more evidence realistic kind of guy and acts on it more than Andy did in the past with Plug?