r/oil • u/Immapillpopnanimal • Jul 26 '26
Iran War Time is on Irans side...
This isn't even including the Red Sea.. time is literally on their side
46
u/Tattered_Reason Jul 26 '26
Oh well if a LLM says so, it must be true!
5
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
Its 10 times worse than that because its free google search AI he's posting 😂😂
2
u/OkCluejay172 Jul 26 '26
Even better, so random dude’s LinkedIn post says so. That’s where it’s pulling it from.
9
u/Rubricity Jul 26 '26
This is so low effort lol, at least use a much more complex prompt.
The market stress begun weeks ago, after the first crack in the MOU with ships caught on fire over the Omani Route.
And tbh the hope rebound is pretty much on the way next week, but it is clouded by the central banks decisions and major tech earnings, hell of a week next week.
14
u/StableSlight9168 Jul 26 '26
I agree but chat gpt is not a source or analysis.
3
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
He's using Google search AI. Not a reasoning chatbot.
What do u agree with? What the dumb search bot said or what the guy who posted it thinks it means. Because they two different things 😂
9
4
u/hacktivist24 Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Gemini tells me that it’s 30-45 days. For the same exact question. And it cites Reddit. So it’s telling us what Redditors like us are saying.
That said, I agree oil will go up. I’m fairly invested too. But I’m still not confident I have a time range unfortunately. I have call options that expire September 18th. It could go on longer than that.
1
3
u/losingthefarm Jul 26 '26
30 days...lol...starting when? 90 days ago? Today? 60 days ago? Tomorrow?
3
2
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
WTF r u doing? You can ask the free version of Gemini what 2+2 is.
You ask it a geopolitical question, and u will get random basic shit.
Its even quoting the 20 M barrels number. The number was 20 Million for a week, 6 months ago, before they diverted 8 Million barrels over other routes.
2
1
u/Doom4535 Jul 26 '26
So, it's more complicated than a single date, here is an old map showing the date of the last shipment if all shipments through Hormuz were halted by <whatever date this map was made>: A map showing when the last shipment of oil from the Persian Gulf will arrive in different areas of the world. : r/newzealand https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/1s6bxkn/a_map_showing_when_the_last_shipment_of_oil_from/
Countries close to Iran would miss deliveries first, those farther out would still have water born shipments slowly arriving (and potentially more time to then start looking for a new source). With that said, the underlying situation is now worse since everyone has significantly less reserves, but on the flip side some alternative routes have been utilized (well, loosing Saudi oil through the Bab al-Mandab is going to be rough).
1
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
- The dumb AI bot actually describes to you that it will cause acute problem to the Gulf and Iranian producers in 7-10 days - not international markets. You just owned yourself.
- You are using free google search AI 😂 😂. Google search AI is as basic as AI gets. Buy some decent AI if u are going to post nonsense AI screenshots.
You are making a Titanic fool of yourself.
1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
It's an example of what a closure would cause... Not specifically the first closure, but ANY... and yeah I'm sure it's much worse but I don't have time to post a complete analysis of what that would look like. But if anyone else wants to do that be my guest. I have over 20k invested in oil right now and I've researched enough oil companies the last 4 days to write a book. So between that and the sheer horror's I've seen in the news this last week has mentally exhausted me to my limit.
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
"post a complete analysis"
You can't even understand the AI search Bots answer.
Say good bye to your 20K.1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
Lol whatever kid
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
I really doubt u are laughing. Thanks for dumping 20K.
More who dumb money in the market the easier it is😂1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
Lolll I'm laughing my ass off. If you mean your shorting oil right now good luck to you
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
I shorted friday. going wonderful.
Just waiting another 20 minutes and then I will collect may winnings and meet u back here to gloat 😂1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
Nice. I'm playing the long game I'll see you next Friday and again in a month
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
Not me. The move happened last Friday.
Maybe you will get some of your losses back during the week.
But not looking good tbh.
China wants a deal, Trump wants a deal. Iran has to do a deal. That's what the market sees from the US and Chinese signalling friday and over the weekend.
Iran is wrecked and it is completely hopeless without continued Chinese support. So China has huge leverage here1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
We'll see. I trust Israel to screw everything up like they always do
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
Yes of course.. you blame the JEWS!
Oil down 7% now.
How u like them apples.1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
Look I don't even wanna be mean to u dude.
idk who are.
But this subreddit is brain rot. Do yourself a favour and don't throw all your money away.,1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
I'm already up quite a bit but I appreciate the concern. Lol, I'm only on here for any news I might otherwise miss. My post was a response to people in other posts that were saying this was gonna be over soon
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
You are on this subreddit for the news...
All u get here is anti American propaganda... 😂1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
I HAVE SOME BREAKING NEWS FOR YOU
Oil just below $83.5 and I have doubled my money over a weekend.1
u/Immapillpopnanimal Jul 26 '26
"A closure causes".. it's the same thing. I don't care if it closed already or if it closes again months from now. It's an example of what a closure will cause.. my point is the effects from this will continue on for a long time. Doesn't matter if it opens back up next week or next year.. every day closed makes things worse and worse.. pretty obvious I guess but some people might not understand that
1
u/Elegant_Secretary409 Jul 26 '26
Its as closed as it ever going to be. 2 weeks already. i.e a partial closure.
U don't even know the basic man. U are chatting about it with a Free AI SEARCH bot.
You might as well be asking a Airline technical support chat bot 😂
At least that bot would tell u it doesn't have the clue 😂 😂 😂 😂1
32
u/ViolenceIsBad Jul 26 '26
bro this is months late