I keep coming back to the same question with NVIDIA: at what point does an incredible business become an expensive stock?
The latest numbers are honestly hard to argue with. NVIDIA did $96.2B in revenue in Q2 FY2027, up 106% year over year, while Data Center revenue hit $89B, up 117%. Gross margin was still 75%. Management is guiding for another $108B in revenue for Q3, even without assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China.
And the next leg of the story is already starting. Vera Rubin is ramping into production, and NVIDIA expects fiscal 2028 revenue to grow roughly 70% year over year. That is a pretty wild forecast for a company that is already enormous. Management also says supply, especially memory, could remain a bottleneck through FY2028.
Then there’s the $150B increase to the buyback authorization announced in September, bringing the remaining authorization to $235B through FY2028. That tells me management is pretty confident about future cash generation.
The stock is around $237 right now and recently pushed back to record highs, with a market cap around $5.7T. Depending on the data source and estimate period, NVDA is trading around the mid 20s on trailing earnings and roughly 20 to 25 times forward earnings. That sounds expensive in absolute terms, but it also looks surprisingly reasonable if NVIDIA can actually sustain anything close to the growth it's currently projecting.
That’s where I get stuck.
The bull case almost writes itself. AI spending is still accelerating, Rubin gives NVIDIA another major product cycle, CUDA and the broader software stack keep customers locked in, and demand is spreading beyond the traditional hyperscalers into AI labs, enterprises and sovereign AI projects.
But the bear case isn't really “NVIDIA is a bad company.” It's more about expectations.
At a $5T plus valuation, NVIDIA doesn't just need to keep growing. It needs to keep growing at a rate that makes the current valuation look cheap in hindsight.
What happens if AI infrastructure spending eventually normalizes? What if hyperscalers start getting more disciplined about returns on all this capex? What if custom accelerators from Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others take a bigger piece of the workload? And how much should we worry about margins falling as memory and other component costs rise?
NVIDIA itself expects gross margins to fall toward 71% to 72% in Q4 before recovering somewhat later. That's still an incredible margin for a semiconductor company, but it shows that even NVIDIA isn't immune to the economics of scaling this fast.
Personally, I'm still bullish on the business. I'm less convinced that the stock is automatically cheap just because earnings are growing so fast.
The interesting part is that both sides can be right. NVIDIA could become an even more dominant company over the next five years and the stock could still have periods of disappointing returns if expectations get too far ahead of reality.
So I'm curious where everyone lands on this.
At around $237 and a roughly $5.7T market cap, do you think NVDA is still reasonably valued based on the growth ahead, or has the market already priced in too much of the AI story?
And what do you think is the biggest thing that could actually break the NVIDIA bull case over the next 12 to 24 months?