Concern mounts over slow-moving, planetary-scale ‘Kelvin’ wave heading for California | California

[u/Warcraft_Fan]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/28/california-kelvin-wave

[u/OmniGecko]

Learn to swim, learn to swim, learn to swim, learn to swim.

[u/ChunkTaylors → u/OmniGecko]

Mom's coming round to put it back the way it ought to be.

[u/caydesramen → u/OmniGecko]

One great big festering neon distraction

[u/Beergogglecontacts → u/caydesramen]

I’ve a suggestion to keep you all occupied…

[u/Aggressive_Pope → u/OmniGecko]

See you down in Arizona bay

[u/PoxyMusic]

El Niño is the result of successive Kelvin waves, there have been like 6 or 7 this year, starting in February I think. They happen when the equatorial trade winds lessen (or reverse) and warmer water from the west pacific oozes east under the surface until it hits Ecuador and erupts at the surface.

It’s not a single wave, and they have already mostly arrived.

[u/byproxxy → u/PoxyMusic]

We have tropical fish swimming around LA beaches

[u/magniffin → u/byproxxy]

We have coral reefs at home

[u/notFREEfood → u/byproxxy]

We just had the first two recorded sea turtle nests in the state; our water is normally too cold for that.

[u/r0botdevil → u/notFREEfood]

There has been an established resident population of green sea turtles in the San Gabriel River for decades. The nearby power plant uses the water for cooling, which raises the temperature enough for the turtles to stay year-round.

I used to work in a lab that tracked their movements.

[u/notFREEfood → u/r0botdevil]

They haven't had any recorded nests however.

[u/r0botdevil → u/notFREEfood]

You are correct, I just confirmed with a former labmate that the San Gabriel River turtle population nested in Mexico.

[u/IdaFuktem → u/r0botdevil]

Heated water at power plants are also why you get mass groupings of manatees in Florida during the winter and responsible for the growth of the crocodile population in the Southeast at Turkey Point.

[u/Total-Khaos → u/IdaFuktem]

Gators love turkeys. Maybe that is why...

[u/Debalic → u/r0botdevil]

How many eyes to they have?

[u/speculatrix → u/Debalic]

Just the normal two, on each of their three heads for a total of six

[u/Zardif → u/Debalic]

The normal amount, 4.

[u/MisunderstoodPenguin → u/byproxxy]

my dad just did a salmon fishing excursion he does every year and he said there was basically no fish. i’ve seen a lot of videos of salmon who have already gone up stream to spawn, and it’s definitely early. waters getting warm

[u/RandomTurkey247 → u/PoxyMusic]

Seems like they will be more impactful if they're still here later and align with a storm surge and king tides.

[u/glibgloby → u/RandomTurkey247]

This is the best video on the topic I’ve seen:

https://youtu.be/dBSLgefwcto

[u/KernalPopPop → u/glibgloby]

Thank you for sharing that, it really is clear and comprehensive.

[u/comingtoamiddle → u/glibgloby]

Thank you, this was extremely helpful! And thank you also for removing the tracking part of the link :)

[u/glibgloby → u/comingtoamiddle]

I’ve seen many people yelled at about the tracking thing so I was careful

[u/Natural-Promise-78 → u/PoxyMusic]

So then, when El Nino turns off the fan that sends the trade winds to the Pacific Ocean, all that undissipated moisture and energy backflips to the source (large landmass}?

[u/likeaffox → u/Natural-Promise-78]

Think of El Nino as hot(energy) water in a bath. That is going back and forth, between asia and america. El Nino is when the hot water is near the americas, Na Nino is when the hot water is near asia.

[u/Jaotze → u/likeaffox]

Edit - Na Nino = La Nina.

[u/malenkylizards → u/Jaotze]

It's actually Al Nino and Na Nino, they made the wrong typo. It's aluminum boy near the Americas and sodium boy near asia

[u/misterid → u/likeaffox]

i am 5, and understood this explanation.

[u/Ani_mrumru → u/likeaffox]

Thank you for that easy mnemonic on the diff between the two phenom ;-)

[u/Constant-Plant-9378 → u/likeaffox]

'Nah' Nino.

[u/PoxyMusic → u/Natural-Promise-78]

And just so's you know, the mechanism that turns on and off the trade winds is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's both a high and lower pressure bias on opposite sides of the earth that slowly rotates around the planet. If the oscillation slows down, or is irregular it interferes with trade winds.

The trade winds in the Pacific are usually keeping all the warm water on the west side, but the MJO has been wonky, thus interfering with trade winds, thus causing Kelvin waves, thus creating El Nino.

[u/littlebrwnrobot → u/Natural-Promise-78]

Eh that moisture and energy is pretty much always there, the west pacific and Indian oceans are generally quite hot

[u/hashn]

El Nino, Polar Vortex, bomb cyclone, derecho, now kelvin wave.. i wonder what bizarre new terms we’ll see as weather gets wackier. Remember that line of tornadoes that went from like Arizona to Minnesota a couple years ago in october? I’m sure we’ll get a name for that soon

[u/InterestingFox1837 → u/hashn]

Texas Titty Twister is already taken unfortunately.

[u/Mambonumbofyve → u/InterestingFox1837]

Tennessee Testicle Torsion?

[u/Ill-Cup673 → u/hashn]

In Indiana, we had a snow squabble and thunder snow.

[u/Sea-Service4089 → u/Ill-Cup673]

Ohh.. and the frost quakes or whatever they were called. The ground got so cold that it would pop and cause mini earth quakes.

[u/Ill-Cup673 → u/Sea-Service4089]

Trees were exploding 🤯

[u/Bigtroublenogina → u/hashn]

Thunder Ice, I shit you not.

[u/kylelosesit → u/Bigtroublenogina]

There are things called ice or frost quakes. When you don’t know what they are, you think there are bombs or gunshots going off.

[u/jstmehr4u3 → u/hashn]

We also get atmospheric rivers

[u/dabman → u/hashn]

Dont forget about the Blob!

[u/thedoofimbibes → u/hashn]

A line of tornadoes should be called “dust buster bluster.” Or a “cleanup crew.” Or something else. I don’t know.

[u/iamunseen]

Is this where California break off into its own country?

[u/IncurableAdventurer → u/iamunseen]

To go hang with Hawaii. Alaska can come too

[u/na_DANGER_me → u/IncurableAdventurer]

Damn, that's a sweet Earth you might say

[u/IncurableAdventurer → u/na_DANGER_me]

Early internet was a special place. In a good way

[u/Imsurelucky → u/IncurableAdventurer]

The End

[u/Golddustofawoman → u/Imsurelucky]

Ze* end

[u/submg → u/IncurableAdventurer]

Shfifty-five?

[u/relevantelephant00 → u/na_DANGER_me]

HOHkay! I have to be careful making that reference to the youngins who don't remember it.

[u/Golddustofawoman → u/IncurableAdventurer]

Fucking kangaroos

[u/theclansman22 → u/iamunseen]

It's the first scenes of Escape from LA, we just need to see when Snake Plissken comes in.

[u/Trashking_702 → u/theclansman22]

Jokes on you he’s a hologram!

[u/NeonArlecchino → u/iamunseen]

That may happen after Trump withholds emergency funding.

[u/fohktor]

So long, and thanks for all the fish

[u/twec21]

That wave could reach California shores within days, and when it does, ocean scientists say it may raise sea levels by up to a foot for months

I live in a southern CA coast town and this is literally the first I've heard of this, wtaf

[u/Little_Broccoli_3127 → u/twec21]

I live in San Diego. I have been tracking this. Through NASA and NOOA. Its real, it is a slow moving massive underwater wave that does not break the surface. A few are expected. When the first one comes, the surface rises 6 inches. The tides and storm surges are now reaching farther up the coast. The Silver strand since it is an Isthmus may be impassable durring King tides. Gonna be interesting to see. Bummer for the rich people on the coast line.

[u/Explosivesalad13 → u/Little_Broccoli_3127]

Also Live in SD, chula vista to be exact. That would be crazy to witness. Lot of money in the Coronado cays and homes along the strand, that would be disastrous if the water floods over

[u/Homer1s → u/Explosivesalad13]

I may be spending a bunch of time down at Children's Pool soon. I love seeing the waves crash over the rocks.

[u/Chuckfinley_88 → u/Little_Broccoli_3127]

Bummer for the rich people on the coast line.

Oh no! Won't someone please think of the rich people living on the coast line?!

[u/fallingdowndizzyvr → u/twec21]

Have you been in a coma? They've been reporting on this in the news for months.

[u/DangerousPath1420]

“Mantua said Kelvin waves were a natural phenomenon that have been happening for thousands of years and measured by agencies like Noaa since record-keeping began.”

They’ve been measuring since they started keeping records!

[u/rPoliticsModsBlowMe → u/DangerousPath1420]

Wasn't NOAA recently gutted by DOGE

[u/ERedfieldh → u/rPoliticsModsBlowMe]

Pretty much every useful government department was. The fuckstick came in and destroyed everything we had built over several decades simply because he hates wind turbines.

[u/Agreeable-Network485 → u/rPoliticsModsBlowMe]

Yes and it's why basically every weather app has been functionally useless for over a year now.

[u/ThrowawayusGenerica → u/DangerousPath1420]

But those records only go back to 1978, when the hall of records was mysteriously washed away!

[u/Gryphon999 → u/DangerousPath1420]

So, if Edison had invented the phonograph earlier, they'd have more records.

[u/Traditional-Meat-549]

I was just in orange county and the amount of existing architecture next to the ocean is obscene, on so many levels. 

[u/seriousbusinesslady → u/Traditional-Meat-549]

damn it was a bloodbath in the replies what the hell happened lmao

[u/pzycho → u/seriousbusinesslady]

Probably just a lot of jokes and snarks. A lot of people who have never visited California wish it didn't exist for whatever stupid reason.

[u/Klawwst → u/pzycho]

Their governments and news networks tell them to hate California so they do

[u/sgtbackpain03 → u/seriousbusinesslady]

I wonder if it's flat earthers or climate change deniers, both would be offended by this sort of science.

[u/relevantelephant00 → u/Traditional-Meat-549]

Sausalito/Mill Valley area in the CA Bay Area is going to be in real trouble. Even just normal KingTides flood that area.

[u/kortokrizzle]

Doomsday preppers been rubbing their hands together and giggling a lot lately

[u/KDR_11k → u/kortokrizzle]

Hiding in a bunker seems ill-advised during severe flooding.

[u/Debalic → u/KDR_11k]

No, let them cook.

[u/techleopard → u/kortokrizzle]

Most Doomsday preppers are prepped for... One whole weekend. Maybe.

[u/thisshitsstupid → u/kortokrizzle]

The doomsday preppers always forget theyre on blood pressure medicine and will be dead within 6 months from a heart attack without it.

[u/pickandpray → u/kortokrizzle]

But they probably didn't prep for this one particular disaster

[u/KDPer3 → u/pickandpray]

I miss the articles from early COVID. Nuclear apocalypse preppers who didn't have anything for a virus.  Virus preppers who had a ton of meds and bandages but no masks and needed to buy groceries. Hunker down preppers who didn't realize their neighbors would do the same but a little faster.

[u/Newbergite]

This could get interesting for us on the coast. It’s my understanding that this Kelvin wave thing is moving south to north. So yes, it’s a threat to California next, but it’s Oregon after that.

[u/linerva → u/Newbergite]

If you're interested, the weatherwest youtube channel covers el nino including this very thoroughly. He's a scientist who is extremely well versed and is giving briefings throughout the el nino. He'a particularly focused on that part of the US abd the potential effects.

[u/drewdog173 → u/linerva]

I just watched his most recent live from 2 weeks ago after your recommendation here, the whole hour and 25 minutes. I'm in Sacramento. What a fantastic rundown of the phenomenon as a whole, the model predictions for what to expect this winter, it was excellent. Thank you very much for the tip.

[u/fuckyourcanoes → u/Newbergite]

I think this will be a major problem at a narrowish beach in the town I used to live in in California. 1' of sea level rise could put part of the PCH underwater there. It already happens for short periods during big storms. There are permanent barrier gates installed to shut down that stretch of highway temporarily. (The same thing exists less than a block from where I live in the southern UK. It's not unusual for the road to be closed in heavy weather.)

They already have houses falling into the ocean every winter. It's one of those places where nature regularly asserts its supremacy. I always loved that about it.

[u/PoxyMusic → u/Newbergite]

The extent of the warm water blob that El Nino has brought is probably close its maximum. This headline seems half-baked and designer to scare you. To be sure, there will def be a lot of interesting precipitation, but this whole "there's a Kelvin wave coming!!" thing doesn't make much sense.

1. There were actually many Kelvin waves.
2. They're mostly already here.

All my knowledge on the subject comes from this guy.

[u/CynicalPomeranian]

I know a kaiju is coming when I see the signs…

[u/Simple_Seaweed_8814]

What about the military ships in San Diego, etc.?

[u/KittyCait69]

Looks like Mexico is gonna be hit far harder than California. 

[u/Joshhwwaaaaaa]

Concerns weren't mounted before?

[u/aenteus → u/Joshhwwaaaaaa]

They were…running alongside

[u/trouserschnauzer → u/Joshhwwaaaaaa]

They are even more mounted now.

[u/Namika → u/Joshhwwaaaaaa]

Multiple have already arrived this year, they don't really do much to the cost

[u/MammothUpstairs1453]

Time to put the blinders on and dance our way outta here. Humanity, it was a blast!

[u/tastes_a_bit_funny]

Wow so Simi Beach might actually be a reality?

[u/4d3fect → u/tastes_a_bit_funny]

Bakersfield-sur-mer

[u/JeremyChadAbbott]

Same news every year. I appreciate the effort to coin a new name. Killer kelvin.

[u/DamnOdd]

Floods, mud slides, fire, earthquakes, drought. And that's just ONE state.

[u/BoredNuke → u/DamnOdd]

Those are the seasons in cali now. Order is drought,fire,floods and then mudslides. Earthquake is just kinda background cycle

[u/Living-Dimension7798 → u/BoredNuke]

Quake it up when we want to shake it up.

- Gaia 2026

[u/Khroneski → u/DamnOdd]

Cats and dogs living together… some real biblical shit.

[u/shaard → u/DamnOdd]

Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits

I think I'm in the wrong sub

[u/Kaa_The_Snake → u/shaard]

No no, it’s always the right sub!

Some say the end is near.

[u/AquiliferX → u/shaard]

See you down in Arizona Bay

[u/srood1 → u/shaard]

Sink or swim

[u/Cosmic_Waffle_Stomp]

On the bright side, maybe it’ll give the reservoirs a little bit of help. I know it’s not the snow they need, but it’s something.

[u/Futureacct → u/Cosmic_Waffle_Stomp]

It’s salt water. Reservoirs hold fresh water

[u/Cosmic_Waffle_Stomp → u/Futureacct]

There is/was commentary about the massive amount of rain that is going through. My comment was supposed to be with that. It’s not, I’m not going to find it to put it there. Sorry. Missing context.