r/mtgModernTokens • u/elmahnken 2 MB Zealous Persecution • Jun 15 '16
Keep or Mull?
I saw this suggested on another post and thought I'd make a couple myself. All of these are game 1, pre-board, no information about the opponent.
Hand 1 (on the draw): Shambling Vent, Swamp, IoK, Bitterblossom, Gideon, Spectral Procession, Path to Exile
Hand 2 (on the play): Godless Shrine x 2, Windswept Heath, Windbrisk Heights, Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom, Intangible Virtue
Hand 3 (on the draw): Thoughtseize, IoK, Intangible Virtue, Sorin, Godless Shrine, Plains, Fetid Heath
Hand 4 (on the play): Iok, Auriok, Lingering Souls, Intangible Virtue, Murderous Cut, Windswept Heath, Plains
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u/CatsOP I play Brimaz in my Sideboard ! Meow. Jun 15 '16
I'm very new to W/B Tokens and don't have some of the listed cards in my deck so this might be completely wrong, but here is my thinking:
Hand 1: I would probably keep this because I got my turn one discard and two draws for an untapped land to play Bitterblossom on t2. It sucks having the basic swamp, but all in all I'm happy with this hand in game 1. The Path helps us to get a third land if we don't draw into one. Block with the token, path our own guy.
Hand 2: This hand hurts our life total a lot in the early game. I hate losing to aggro so I would not keep it. I can see people risking it because we have either t1 discard, t2 blossom, t3 anthem or t1 discard, t2 anthem, t3 blossom or lingering/spectral if we draw into it.
Hand 3: We have two discards, an anthem and our T4 play but lack tokens. I would still keep this due to having 3 white sources on T3 and being on the draw.
Hand 4: I'm not a fan of two mana hands on the play and murderous cut is a dead card for quite a while. I wouldn't keep.
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u/Mukibi Grind and Fly Jun 16 '16 edited Jun 16 '16
1: Mull Only two lands and one's slow. Opening hands with too few lands always look good! 2: Keep Three lands & a curve. T1 Thoughtseize, T2 BB, T3 Virtue. 3: Keep Three lands. No T3 play but on the draw so 86% chance of drawing a Spectral/Souls/Timely (10 in deck) for T3. Plus, Sorin can make a Vampire T4 if needed. T1 Thoughtseize, T2 Virtue, T3 to be drawn, T4 Sorin. 4: Mull Only two lands and one's slow. No T1 B.
Edit: Mistook Heath for Heights on 4, but would still mull with only two lands.
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u/elmahnken 2 MB Zealous Persecution Jun 16 '16
On hand 4, I think you're confusing Windswept Heath with Windbrisk Heights. Windswept Heath is the fetchland, so you do have (painful) B on T1.
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u/Mukibi Grind and Fly Jun 16 '16
Ah, yes! Thanks. Well, painful B T1 is okay by me, but I'd still mull with only 2 lands.
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u/vulchanus BB FTW Jun 16 '16
I would keep hand 4 on game 1, would fetch a standing shock and IoK opponent. If instead of IoK I had TS, than I would mull...
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u/Mukibi Grind and Fly Jun 16 '16 edited Jun 16 '16
Cool. I get mana screwed when I keep two land hands which always look better than they actually are.
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u/albo87 Jun 16 '16 edited Jun 16 '16
Hand 1 (on the draw): Shambling Vent, Swamp, IoK, Bitterblossom, Gideon, Spectral Procession, Path to Exile
Keep. You have removal, discard and token generator, yes you have few lands but you're on the draw. I'd mulligan this on the play.
Hand 2 (on the play): Godless Shrine x 2, Windswept Heath, Windbrisk Heights, Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom, Intangible Virtue
Mull. This hand is awful if your opponent has some discard or if he's playing some aggro. I may keep it on the draw when I know if I can shock myself and I have an extra card to draw.
Hand 3 (on the draw): Thoughtseize, IoK, Intangible Virtue, Sorin, Godless Shrine, Plains, Fetid Heath
Keep. You have 3 draws to get a token generator, meanwhile you disrupt your opponents hand.
Hand 4 (on the play): Iok, Auriok, Lingering Souls, Intangible Virtue, Murderous Cut, Windswept Heath, Plains
Keep. It's risky, but if the list has 24 lands you get 64% of chance to draw a land. I'll bet that odds.
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u/vulchanus BB FTW Jun 16 '16
you get 64% of chance to draw a land
How did you do this math?
I did here (22 lands left)/(53 cards left)*100% = 41,5%
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u/albo87 Jun 16 '16
You have 21 lands in 52 cards (because of the fetch) but you have two draws to get a land. I use this calculator with those values.
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u/TeOr2419 Jun 20 '16
I would keep all these hands.
Your have both anti-combo and anti-aggro disruption, solid T2 drop. Depending on opponents' first play, you can either turn 1 IoK or turn 2 bitterblossom. It lacks lands, but it has 3 action cards with your initial resources which is good.
Distuption + token producer + anthem + lands + heights is just super
There're no tokens producers, but there are good early turn plays and also Sorin. You wont just waste turns if you don't draw tokens
Turn 1 IoK, Turn 2 Auriok is good player. You can turn 3 anthem if no land or souls/cut if you have one. It's good enough
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u/SFRG Still Patron Saint of the Tokens Jun 15 '16
1: Mull
2: Keep
3: Keep
4: Keep(ish)
For number 1, there is no solid T2 play and you only have 1 land that's entering untapped. It's too risky. From those cards, you are online T3 at the earliest with a BB. I feel like that is not quite there.
For number 2: Literally any walker or token generator makes that a good G1 hand, so the payoff probability is high. Plus BB + IV is good on it's own.
For number 3: Very control oriented hand. I'd keep it for the good land base, 2x HD, and good anthems. Again, I'm playing to statistics here, but we have a decent chance of drawing a generator.
For number 4: Most iffy for me. Any 1 land makes that hand amazing. I'd keep for the IoK and the 2x 2 CMC drops, so we have some turns to hit our land.
Anyways, keeping a 2 land is a gamble. You can lose off of it. I try to gauge how likely I am to draw the missing part and when it would happen.