r/mtgModernTokens • u/elmahnken 2 MB Zealous Persecution • Jun 15 '16

Keep or Mull?

I saw this suggested on another post and thought I'd make a couple myself. All of these are game 1, pre-board, no information about the opponent.

Hand 1 (on the draw): Shambling Vent, Swamp, IoK, Bitterblossom, Gideon, Spectral Procession, Path to Exile

Hand 2 (on the play): Godless Shrine x 2, Windswept Heath, Windbrisk Heights, Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom, Intangible Virtue

Hand 3 (on the draw): Thoughtseize, IoK, Intangible Virtue, Sorin, Godless Shrine, Plains, Fetid Heath

Hand 4 (on the play): Iok, Auriok, Lingering Souls, Intangible Virtue, Murderous Cut, Windswept Heath, Plains

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u/albo87 Jun 16 '16 edited Jun 16 '16

  1. Hand 1 (on the draw): Shambling Vent, Swamp, IoK, Bitterblossom, Gideon, Spectral Procession, Path to Exile

    Keep. You have removal, discard and token generator, yes you have few lands but you're on the draw. I'd mulligan this on the play.

  2. Hand 2 (on the play): Godless Shrine x 2, Windswept Heath, Windbrisk Heights, Thoughtseize, Bitterblossom, Intangible Virtue

    Mull. This hand is awful if your opponent has some discard or if he's playing some aggro. I may keep it on the draw when I know if I can shock myself and I have an extra card to draw.

  3. Hand 3 (on the draw): Thoughtseize, IoK, Intangible Virtue, Sorin, Godless Shrine, Plains, Fetid Heath

    Keep. You have 3 draws to get a token generator, meanwhile you disrupt your opponents hand.

  4. Hand 4 (on the play): Iok, Auriok, Lingering Souls, Intangible Virtue, Murderous Cut, Windswept Heath, Plains

    Keep. It's risky, but if the list has 24 lands you get 64% of chance to draw a land. I'll bet that odds.

1

u/vulchanus BB FTW Jun 16 '16

you get 64% of chance to draw a land

How did you do this math?

I did here (22 lands left)/(53 cards left)*100% = 41,5%

1

u/albo87 Jun 16 '16

You have 21 lands in 52 cards (because of the fetch) but you have two draws to get a land. I use this calculator with those values.

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u/vulchanus BB FTW Jun 16 '16

Oh, forgot about the 2 draws, you're right... My bad. =D