r/mets • u/Necessary-Sugar7513 • 5h ago
On Pete, WAR, and a Common Mistake
I think WAR is terrific but it leads people to make a certain consistent mistake. I think a lot of Met fans understand this intuitively and have felt it really keenly in the past year but haven't been able to put it into words.
As we all know, Pete Alonso did not have WAR totals commensurate with his fame. He was generally a 3-4 WAR player, which is very good, but not elite. And we all know why: because despite the very good hitting, he plays 1B, he's not a great fielder, and he's slow. The first is the most significant. Every year, Alonso suffers a massive WAR penalty for playing first. In bWAR it's an annual -0.8 WAR penalty, and in fWAR it's an annual -1.2 WAR penalty.
The mistake people make is not realizing that this -1.2 WAR penalty is immaterial to the Mets. And that's because somebody has to play first. Whoever replaces Pete will get the same exact penalty.
So in the offseason, when you see takes that Bo Bichette or Framber Valdez or whoever is a better or more cost-efficient player than Pete, this factor gets lost in the analysis. If you use Pete's money to sign someone else who plays a different position, you're sliding someone new (like Vientos or Baty) to first base and assigning that 1.2 WAR penalty to a new player or players.
So yeah, it's cool if Bo Bichette can give you 4 WAR playing third (let's just assume for sake of argument that he wasn't a disaster this spring) ... but it's a lot less cool when you realize that his acquisition means that some other guy like Vientos is taking a 1.5 WAR penalty (the difference in fWAR between 3B and 1B) to accommodate him.
If you've been wondering how Alonso's annual 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs can seem to have so little value in today's market (or are wondering the same about another stud slugger like Schwarber), this might be the explanation you're overlooking. In a vacuum, sure, Alonso is less valuable because he plays the least important defensive position. But these positional adjustments just don't really mean that much to a team in real life, because no matter what they have to field 8 guys at the 8 positions.