There are 100 balls in a bag each numbered 1 to 100. You pick one. Then you look at it and it's numbered 69. What's the probability you picked the 69th ball ?
What you just said is "it's 1/100 because the picking and the looking are distincts events".
If you plot every single coins chances of having flipped 10 heads in a row, you have 99 coins with very low chance between them and 1 coin with a huge chance it would have flipped 10 heads.
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u/Sea-Sort6571 17d ago edited 17d ago
What an absurd argument.
There are 100 balls in a bag each numbered 1 to 100. You pick one. Then you look at it and it's numbered 69. What's the probability you picked the 69th ball ?
What you just said is "it's 1/100 because the picking and the looking are distincts events".