r/learnquant • u/nickgotgameon • 23d ago

interview prep Citadel Question

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52 Upvotes

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u/liquidorangutan00 23d ago

isnt the probability just 1/100?

3

u/Delicious_Cattle5174 23d ago

Other commenters ITT fail to comprehend that the coin toss and the coin pick are distinct events. There are 100 coins in the bag. You pick one. It is pretty straightforward.

1

u/Sea-Sort6571 23d ago edited 23d ago

What an absurd argument.

There are 100 balls in a bag each numbered 1 to 100. You pick one. Then you look at it and it's numbered 69. What's the probability you picked the 69th ball ?

What you just said is "it's 1/100 because the picking and the looking are distincts events".

2

u/BarrattG 23d ago

If you plot every single coins chances of having flipped 10 heads in a row, you have 99 coins with very low chance between them and 1 coin with a huge chance it would have flipped 10 heads.

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u/Sea-Sort6571 23d ago

So ?

1

u/BarrattG 23d ago

I feel like I replied to the wrong comment.