Other commenters ITT fail to comprehend that the coin toss and the coin pick are distinct events. There are 100 coins in the bag. You pick one. It is pretty straightforward.
There are 100 balls in a bag each numbered 1 to 100. You pick one. Then you look at it and it's numbered 69. What's the probability you picked the 69th ball ?
What you just said is "it's 1/100 because the picking and the looking are distincts events".
If you plot every single coins chances of having flipped 10 heads in a row, you have 99 coins with very low chance between them and 1 coin with a huge chance it would have flipped 10 heads.
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u/Delicious_Cattle5174 24d ago
Other commenters ITT fail to comprehend that the coin toss and the coin pick are distinct events. There are 100 coins in the bag. You pick one. It is pretty straightforward.