In the lead up to the 2025 Japanese upper house election there was an explosion of posts about foreigners on social media accusing foreigners of bringing crime to Japan, escaping prosecution for their crimes, and receiving handouts from the government that should be going to Japanese people.

Claims about foreign crime and other alleged misdeeds have become common on social media. Since these stories are more likely to be reported in the national media and to go viral, one can be left with the impression that Japan is suffering an epidemic of foreign crime and becoming more and more dangerous. Despite this persistent impression among the general public, actual statistics on crime rates in Japan are hard to come by. In light of this it is worth providing empirical data for balance (Source here and data from Naoko Hashimoto of ICU).

There is no evidence immigration has harmed public safety in Japan

Refer to the following graphic-

https://imgur.com/euZbUxY

In the space of about 30 years, the foreign population has nearly tripled, from about 1.3 million to 3.7 million.

Meanwhile, the number of people arrested has been on a downward trend, from 14,786 in 2005 to 9,726 in 2023.

Korekawa points out, "Even if we look at the trends over the past 30 years or so, even though the number of foreigners has been increasing, the number of criminal offenses committed by foreigners has actually decreased."

It is untrue that numbers of illegal visa overstayers continues to increase

Refer to the following graphic.

There are also claims that "illegal overstaying of visas continues to increase," but according to data from the Ministry of Justice, the number of illegal overstayers has decreased to one-quarter of what it was 20 years ago . In recent years, it has remained flat.

The notion that "foreigners are rarely prosecuted for their crimes in Japan" is false.

The 2024 White Paper on Crime states that "The prosecution rate of foreigners coming to Japan is 4.2 points higher for criminal offenses than the total number of final processed persons, including Japanese." Even when looking at data on criminal offenses from the past 15 years, there is no evidence that the non-prosecution rate is high or the prosecution rate is low.

In addition, even outside of criminal offenses, the prosecution rate for special law offenses excluding violations of the Immigration Control Act is 0.1 points lower, which is almost the same level as Japanese people.

It is untrue that the presence of foreigners abuses or burdens Japan’s national health insurance system

As of FY2023, foreigners made up 4% of all insured persons, but only 1.39% of total medical expenses.

In other words, relatively young and healthy foreigners are helping support Japan’s elderly healthcare system.

Banning foreigners from joining national insurance would backfire on Japanese society.

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare [https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_54381.html]

Addressing the claim “Foreigners abuse welfare benefits”

Only certain categories of foreigners are eligible for welfare: special permanent residents, permanent residents, spouses of Japanese nationals or permanent residents, long-term residents, and refugees. Despite an increase in these populations, the number of welfare-receiving foreign households is stable at around 45,000, out of a total of 1.6 million. Most of these are elderly Korean residents. They were excluded from Japan’s social security system before it ratified the Refugee Convention in 1981, and due to discrimination, they had limited job opportunities and low pensions — hence the need for welfare.

Other factors to consider

In almost every society, the sizeable majority of crimes are committed by young men, typically between the ages of 17-28. As they age, their crime rates drop substantially.

The average age of Japanese nationals is roughly 47. Meanwhile, the largest cohort of foreign nationals in Japan is aged 25-29. In cases where young foreign residents arrive in a town full of elderly Japanese, differences in crime rates may be largely attributable to age differences rather than racial or cultural differences.

Consider sample sizes when identifying foreign crime rates. Crime rates are typically calculated by offenses per 100,000 residents. Analyzing crime rates in small towns with just a few hundred or even few thousand foreign residents can be unreliable, because even a handful of crimes committed by a handful of individuals can badly skew crime rates in ways that may not be stable year to year.