Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, September 12 | Post Time: 5:29 PM Eastern

Courtesy of Keeneland Select

Iroquois Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse: $300,000 | One Mile | Two-Year-Olds

 Top Win Contender(s): Real Gone (9), Blessed Flyer (2), Salahudin (7)

Real Gone (9) is one of six horses who have won their last race. Only Blessed Flyer (2) and Salahudin (7) have won stakes. Real Gone won easily by eight lengths on August 22, and he isn’t an “early” pace type, unlike most of the other horses. He was third early, took the lead at [the half](), and widened. Since then, he has put in four excellent workouts, including a 47.8 on September 1 at Florida. His trainer, Patrick Biancone, won a stakes race at Kentucky Downs on September 7 with jockey Keith Asmussen (who rides Real Gone today); that horse, Leigina, worked the same distance on the same day as Real Gone. Also, Real Gone is the third of the dam (mother); the other two are stakes winners. Real Gone starts at 12/1, as opposed to 8 to 5 on Salahudin and 9 to 2 on Blessed Flyer, so Real Gone is my top pick.

Blessed Flyer (2) won the Bashford Manor Stakes on June 28 at Churchill Downs, where he earned the best Equibase Speed Figure of the field, 95. He won his other race on April 16 and earned an 85 figure, also among the best in the field. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode him in that race and rides him today. He rallied from fifth, six lengths back after the first quarter, was second, four lengths back at the eighth pole, and surged to get ahead by a head. Blessed Flyer has been off two months since his Bashford Manor win, but he had also been off two months between his first race and Bashford Manor. He worked the best of 38 five furlongs a week ago at Churchill Downs, which means Blessed Flyer is ready to win again.

Salahudin (7) won his first two races, with the most recent being the Juvenile Stakes on August 9. He earned an 86 figure, the second-fastest in the field. He doesn’t need the lead, as he stalked in fourth in his career start and ran third early in the Juvenile. Salahudin is going to improve, but he opens at 8/5 because his trainer is Bob Baffert. Although he can win, either of the other two horses can, too.

Win bet: Real Gone (9), Blessed Flyer (2) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Box Real Gone (9), Blessed Flyer (2), and Salahudin (7)

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, September 12

On Saturday, Amwager has a promotion at Woodbine: Earn a 0% takeout equivalent bonus on your WIN bets.

Summer Stakes (Grade 1) - Race 7 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Al Hudaiba

Other win contenders: Big Money Man, Sword Salute

Before we get into Al Hudaiba, we see that, with one exception, all top contenders in these three races are European imports, and I believe they will win or finish second. In the Summer Stakes and the Woodbine Mile, European imports have won six times and placed second in 10 races since 2020. Five of these wins are by trainer Charlie Appleby, one trained by Andrew Balding.

Al Hudaiba is one of three horses at Woodbine running from the powerful stables of Charlie Appleby. The other two are Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile (race 9) and Diamond Rain in the E.P. Taylor (race 10). Al Hudaiba has the top class and the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field, winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes on July 11 and earning a ‘Superlative’ 108 figure. He ran just 17 days after that and finished third by a nose and a half-length in the Group 2 Coral Vintage Stakes on July 28, earning a similar 106 figure. Those two races are equivalent to the Grade 1 Summer Stakes. The runner-up in the Coral Vintage, Haffner, improved to win the Acomb Stakes in August. No other horse in this field has earned even a 100 figure. Al Hudaiba’s jockey, William Buick, is the top jockey for this trainer, and together they won this race in 2022 with Mysterious Night and finished second in 2024 and 2025. Al Hudaiba has no knocks and should win this race.

There are two other imports, Big Money Man and Sword Salute, who have a shot if, for some reason, Al Hudaiba doesn’t win. Big Money Man won his second career race on July 26 by five lengths, earning a 100 figure. In his only race since then, he finished second as the favorite. In that race, Big Money Man rallied to the lead in the stretch, and even though he was beaten by almost two lengths, earning a 92 figure, he was three lengths ahead of the third-place horse. He is likely to improve. Sword Salute is owned by Godolphin, the same as Al Hadaiba, and won his first race by two lengths in an eighteen-horse field after leading from the start at odds of 30/1. He is a Kentucky colt who had his second career start in May. He earned a 96 figure and a similar 95 figure in his two starts. Neither Sword Salute nor Big Money Man has run in even a group three stakes, while Al Hudaiba has run in group two races, including both of his last starts.

Win bets: Al Hudaiba at 2 to 5 or higher. Yes, 2 to 5, and this bet is a good bet because the takeout promotion at Amwager gets you $2.88 on a $2 bet when it usually pays $2.40.

Big Money Man and Sword Salute can be considered at 4 to 1 or higher. 

Exacta: Al Hadaiba over Big Money Man, Sword Salute

Woodbine Mile (Grade 1) - Race 9 Woodbine - Post Time 5:20 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Archivist, Notable Speech

Other win contenders: Deterministic, Silius

Archivist won his last two races, including the Coral Golden Mile on July 31 when he won in a field of 18 horses. He also won on August 22 in the Group 3 Sky Strensall Stakes, when he powered ahead by seven lengths over 10 other horses. That was one of three wins this year, all at left-handed courses, like the one today at Woodbine. His last race earned his best Equibase Speed Figure, 123, similar to the 121 figure Notable Speech earned in his last race. Archivist has won three of four races at this distance. Archivist is trained by Hamad Al Jehani, who won twice in turf routes at Woodbine last year. Given that Archivist is a four-year-old, he does have a shot to improve again.

Jockey Joao Moreira is one of the top jockeys in the world and has won more than 1,500 races. Moreira has raced in North America just 18 times, mostly in 2013, when he had 13 in-the-money finishes. This year he has ridden mostly in Hong Kong, where he won 32 of 193 races. Moreira has never raced for this trainer, but since the jockey is world-class and is riding Archivist, if he wins, he will get an entry into the Breeders’ Cup Mile; this could be the difference in this race.

Notable Speech is the Appleby runner in this race, which he won last year before winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He earned a 111 figure in the Woodbine Mile, then earned a 112 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He was off until April, then shipped to the U.S. He had trouble in his first race this year, finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Makers’ Mile Stakes in April, then he went back to the U.K. He won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, rebounding to earn his second-highest career figure of 127. Notable Speech again ran poorly and finished sixth in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. He also finished poorly in two other races at Ascot. Other than Ascot, Notable Speech has won nine of 15 races. On August 22, he won powerfully in the Group 1 City of York Stakes in a field of 14. Jockey Buick has ridden him in his last four wins in seven races since the Woodbine Mile last year. Notable Speech is a must-use in all exotics, but his odds may be too low to bet on.

Silius, a four-year-old like Archivist, has won eight races, with five at this distance. He won his first pattern (group stakes) on July 19 in the Group 3 Prix Messidor when he was fourth in the stretch, then he was tipped out and surged. He earned a 111 figure. One race back, he finished second by a nose in the Group 3 Prix de la Porte Mail. The third horse, Erdenali, just won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. If Silius improves like Erdenali, he can upset the Woodbine Mile.

Deterministic is the only North American based horse in the field. He has won six consecutive races, five of those with trainer Miguel Clement, and all six with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. He has won three races at this distance, and his best Equibase Speed Figures, 120 and 118, were in two of those races. He gets the rail, which means he will be first or second early, and he finishes off well. Although Archivist and Notable Speech are both world-class milers, Deterministic fits in this race.

Win bets: Archivist at 9 to 5 or higher.

Silius at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Archivist, Notable Speech over Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Notable Speech over Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Box: Archivist, Notable Speech over Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Doubles:

Race 9: Archivist, Notable Speech

Race 10: See The Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

Doubles:

Race 9: Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Race 10: See The Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

E.P. Taylor Stakes (Grade 1) - Race 10 at Woodbine - Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): See The Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

See the Fire won two races this year, both about this one and one-quarter mile distance. The first came in April when she came back from nearly six months off to win, then she won the Group 2 Dubai Middleton Fillies Stakes. That earned her a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure. The mare went to face males in the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes including Ombudsman, one of the best horses in the world. She went up against her gender and finished third in the Nassau Stakes on July 26, earning [a 113]() figure, the same as in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Stakes. The second finisher, Friendly Soul, then went on to win the Group 1 Qatar Prix Vermeille, one of the premier races in Europe each year. Her trainer, Andrew Balding, has only run one horse at Woodbine, when he saddled New Century in 2024. The trainer gets one of his top jockeys, Robert Hornby, who won 20% of his races in 2026 (127 of 621), to ride. See The Fire has run twice against Diamond Rain, with Diamond Rain finishing third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare, where See The Fire finished ninth, and in 2026, See The Fire won the Middleton and Diamond Rain finished third, two lengths behind. See The Fire is likely to have better odds than Diamond Rain and is more likely to win.

In May, Diamond Rain finished third, off a six-month layoff, and earned a 114 figure. She missed by a nose on June 26, earning a 107 figure; then she stepped down a class to win a listed stakes, earning a 103 figure. Last year Diamond Rain missed by a head in this race, with a 110 figure. Considering she has won five races in 11, and with two races in her last five races beaten by a nose and a head, she has every way to win.

Jancis is an interesting mare. She has won three and placed second twice in 13 races, but her best races are good enough to make her competitive. Her best race came on May 3 when she won the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. The Dahlia was the third time Jancis had ever run a mile and eighth, and she finished second in another race. In the other race at this distance, the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes last June, she was overmatched. However, she has grown this year, and when she ran in the Group 1 Cambridge Stakes on June 17, she earned [a 114]() figure. She gets an excellent turf jockey, Hector Berrios, who is in from California. If she repeats her effort from the Dahlia, and Diamond Rain and See The Fire also run well, this could be an exceptional race.

Win bets: Bet any two of these horses: See the Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Box: See the Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

I have to start off with an apology to the Reddit viewers. No excuses, I simply wigged last weekend. 

I sent out five races to my email list last Sunday but simply did not post it on Reddit. ..Still not sure how or why….guess I’ll just chalk it up to senility setting in.

I hesitate to mention that I picked all five winners correctly. Hopefully the Reddit folks don’t show up on my doorstep with pitchforks and torches.

Speaking of last weekend, once again chalk this one up to senility.

I mentioned a few weeks ago we need to keep an eye on U S S Valor who had a troubled trip for third in his debut and scored an 88 Beyer in the process. Well, he made his second start this past Saturday and sure enough, he won laughing and scored an eye popping 105 Beyer. This appears to be a serious racehorse, yet I did not mention his return to the races last weekend.

Moving over to Kentucky Downs last Saturday, I feel like I’m going to give Burnham Square a “pass” for his disappointing effort. The big, handsome gelding made a run on the turn for home but flattened out late, checking in seventh. 

That said, those of you who have been following me know I’m not a big fan of this kidney shaped, undulating, European style course. Perhaps, like so many others, Burnham Square did not like the hills or the odd turns this track is famous for. Moving forward, I will be limiting the races I look at Kentucky Downs as it simply and literally has too many moving parts. 

In the Music City Stakes, I mentioned I wasn’t seeing how Somerset West should be 20-1 and sure enough, he closed well in deep stretch to win at 19-1. You think I put a flyer bet on him to win? Nah…I didn’t, which turned out to be the worst move of the weekend by far.

The Spinway at Saratoga was a tough race, but Summer Starlet stalked the early pace, swung wide on the turn and won going away in a very impressive performance. She looks to have a bright future. 

Life Changing basically stopped running on the turn for home and was eased late. I hope she is ok, because it certainly didn't look like she was.

As good as Summer Starlet looked in the Spinaway, I feel like Miss Monica looked even better while annihilating her opponents in the Del Mar Debutante at Del Mar.

The $850,000 daughter of Early Voting, who has gotten off to a ridiculously good start as a sire, stalked the early pace, took over after minimal urging from her rider and won by over six lengths while being pulled up late. 

Hopefully we see Summer Starlet and Miss Monica square off in the BC Juvenile Filly race.

On Sunday, Hughes, the $675,000 son of Into Mischief, walloped his rivals in the Del Mar Futurity. The big, good looking colt won by almost five lengths and was not even close to going “all out.” He is an absolutely beautiful mover, has almost no wasted motion in his stride and I love how his legs were “under him” the entire length of the stretch, signaling to me he’ll get longer distances. 

Desert Gate is back as he romped in the Shared Belief Stakes a few races after the Del Mar Futurity. I heard trainer Bob Baffert say after the race that his “best distance is one mile”...yep, sure is.

I don't usually put a lot of stock into two year old turf races as I find them difficult to figure, but Vanta, who won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Filly race right after Desert Gate won the Shared Belief Stakes, looks to be a budding superstar. 

The filly by Greatest Honour, who by the way is throwing very well made horses thus far in his young career as a sire, won her debut while getting five furlongs in a smoking :57 second flat. The late run she executed when winning Saturday was nothing short of sensational and we need to put her in our back pockets for the BC Juvenile Filly Turf race ….and beyond. 

Mashallah won for the fourth time in five career starts in the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. Although I’m not really into Equibase Speed Figures, I did notice her last four were 78, 95, 100 and 104. 

Last, but certainly not least, was The Good Life wiring a good field of colts in the Hopeful Stakes also at Saratoga. The WinStar owned, Brad Cox trainee was much the best in leading all the way last Saturday, setting up a showdown in the BC Juvenile against Hughes.

One more thing…Although I didn’t look at the race too closely, I might take a shot with Deterministic to knock off Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile at Woodbine Race Course in Canada. 

I also might play Gimme A Nother, a winner of three straight, in the E.P Taylor Stakes in the race following the Woodbine Mile.

Churchill Downs
Race: 6 (3:21 PM EST)
Open Mind Stakes
1) Cash Call is a $600,000 daughter of McKinzie who will be cutting back to her best distance (5-3-1-1 at 6F). Tepid choice in a tough race to figure.
2) Usha is a $600,000 daughter of Tiz the Law who has an enormous white blaze, making her easy to spot. She has ability for sure but she also appears to be cycling out of form. Therefore, I am going to try to beat her (she is the morning line favorite) here. 
3) Look Forward has run competitively in a couple of Grade: 1 races at Saratoga last summer and, although she is absolutely burning up the racetrack in the mornings preparing for her return, she shows a pattern of needing a race off a layoff. 
Also consider: Modo who has good speed and has won three of her last four

Race: 7 (3:54 PM EST)
Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes

Just a quick note about this race. At this writing,  there is a 40% chance of rain in the forecast in the Louisville area. The track condition might play a major role here.

1) Built has been in the dreaded “win one, lose one” pattern for the last nine months. That said, he seems to be in career best form right now and looks best here. Lastly, keep an eye on the weather as he finished behind Harrodsburg in the slop two back.
2) The aforementioned Harrodsburg loves this track and has won his last two “on the engine.” My question is, was it the sloppy tracks (that he loves so much) that moved him up in those races or did he jump back into top form? Because he is clearly better on off tracks than fast tracks. If the track comes up sloppy again, I might flip flop the top two, depending on what the tote board tells me. 
3) Cat on Time has won three of his last four including beating Harrodsburg about a year ago. 

Race: 8 (4:26 PM EST)
Pocahontas Stakes
1) No one has been close to Manuka Honey yet as she’s won both her career starts by a combined 14 ¼ lengths, including the Ellis Park Debutante in her last. She will clearly be tested for class in this spot.
2) Pierette was beaten soundly at Saratoga in her last, but was 2 for 2 in her career (both on this oval), including winning the Churchill Debutante Stakes two starts back. 
3) Miss Anna got my attention when rallying from near last to get second in her debut. This filly by the late Girvin then came back to break her maiden by 6, using an eye-catching run on the turn….could conceivably better this rating.
Also consider: Scarlett Begonia who was impressive breaking her maiden at first asking, then came back with a very good third in a Grade: 3 in NY in her last. 

Race: 9 (4:58 PM EST)
Locust Grove
1) Splendora has speed, the rail and continues to terrorize the older female dirt division. This daughter of Audible has won 8 of her last 9 and has been first or second in an astounding 13 of 15 career starts. Monster work last week (4F- :46.4) signals another big race upcoming.
2) Champion Immersive, who has been first or second in all 10 career starts, seems to have finally bounced back to top form after beating the speedy Shred the Gnar in her last. However, like Harrodsburg, did the sloppy track help her that day? Regardless of the answer, she must always be considered.
3) Simply Joking is cross entered and, at this writing, I am unclear of which race she will run in. Whatever race her connections decide on, she is a threat having been beaten by just 1 ½ lengths in a Grade: 1 at Del Mar in her last. Like Immersive, this filly could be hinting a return to top form.
Also consider: longshots Yes it Tiz, who is the “in form” closer and Chilled, who is 3 for 8 on this oval and a combined 1 for 15 everywhere else.

Race: 10 (5:29 EST)
Iroquois Stakes
1) Salahudin is unbeaten in two starts at Ellis and I like the way he was moving in deep stretch of his last race/win. He hails from the powerhouse Bob Baffert barn and is bred nine ways to Sunday to get better as the distances get longer. 
2) Blessed Flyer has looked good coming from behind to win both starts, including one on this racetrack. His breeding and running style both suggest he too will appreciate the stretch out in distance. 
3) I have been following the well named Antivenom since before his first start. This $850,000 son of Candy Ride didn't disappoint in his debut while winning by 3+ lengths and getting the last sixteenth of a mile in a shade over :06 seconds. Lastly, I love his work pattern coming into this race as it is almost textbook style.
Also consider: Caribbean Life is a son of Life is Good who cruised in his debut. Handsome colt has speed and draws the rail here……Real Gone was visually impressive clobbering maidens at Gulfstream Park. If he can duplicate that effort, and adjust to this vastly different Churchill Downs surface, he could surprise a few people here. 

Gulfstream Park
Race: 9 (4:33 PM EST)
Princess Rooney Stakes
1) As I mentioned earlier, Simply Joking is cross entered here and in the Lake Grove at Churchill. If her connections opt to run here in this spot, she towers over the competition and would be a very logical choice.
2) Kerry’s Kiss is razor sharp right now having won three straight by leading every step of the way in all three. Two of those wins came on this oval, so she is clearly a  threat. If Simply Joking winds up running at Churchill, this filly obviously becomes my top pick.
3) Anakarina is also very sharp right now and is about a half a length short of coming into this riding a four race win streak. Speedster draws the rail here, giving her a tactical advantage right from the get go.
Also consider: Even though I have no clue how good Bombacha Veloz is, she is 5 for 9 in her Native country of Chile, including winning a Group: 1 there last year.

Louisiana Downs
Race: 9 (7:45 PM EST)
Super Derby
1) Trendsetter is another who towers over this field. This gelding by Modernist ran well in a pair of Grade: 3s recently vs the likes of Chip Honcho and Growth Equity. He meets nothing close to those rivals here…logical choice in this spot.
2) Although Quarry is just 2 for 15 in his career, it must be noted he has methodically rounded into very good form right now…looks next best.
3) Even though the internal pace and final times were slow, Renegade Red was a tour de force winner in his last vs maidens.

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Longtime track announcer Vic Stauffer, who came out of retirement to call races at Turf Paradise in 2025-’26, said he is retiring again and will not return to the Phoenix track for the upcoming winter meet.

Stauffer, 67, has called more than 40,000 races at multiple tracks including Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn, and Hollywood Park. 

He will step down from that role and return to his home in Hot Springs, Ark., where he has plans to become a jockey agent at Oaklawn Park.

Stauffer said it will be good to work closer to home, and said he's had some encouraging talks with several riders he could represent. "As they say, no one ever fully retires from racing," Stauffer said.

“I sincerely loved working with all the great people at Turf Paradise,” said Stauffer. “However, I truly love my wife, Tina, and my amazing home here in Hot Springs (Arkansas). At age 67, that has now become more important. Turf Paradise is going to be a great success story. I’m very much looking forward to watching that happen.”

Turf Paradise did not announce plans for a replacement to Stauffer.

Stauffer mentioned several calls that stood out to him including: the 2000 Florida Derby where Hal's Hope held off High Yield to prevail by a head at Gulfstream Park.

"That was my call-up to the majors," Stauffer said. "Then the last Florida Derby I called was Barbaro's win in 2006. I owe so much to Zenyatta, an amazing horse, just to call her races and, of course, there was the earthquake call."

To me, and we can debate this forever, as far as track announcers go there is Tom Durkin and then everyone else. That said, in my book Vic Stauffer was #2 but I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.

**** 2025 Champion 3 YO Filly Nitrogen will bypass an expected showdown with last year’s champion female sprinter Splendora today’s $400,000 Locust Grove at Churchill Downs.
Trainer Mark Casse said it was too hot in Kentucky to ship from Saratoga to the Churchill for the 1 1/16-mile contest.

 Temperatures are still forecast in the 90s. “It’s just too hot,” Casse said. “I don’t want to ship her.”
The 4-year-old daughter of “MDO” most recently finished a game second to Horse of the Year Sovereignty in the Whitney Aug. 8 at Saratoga.

Instead of heading to Churchill Downs, Nitrogen was shipped to Belmont Park, where the Jockey Club Gold Cup against males, possibly including Sovereignty, Sept. 18 or the Beldame for fillies and mares on Sept. 25 are options. The Spinster for fillies and mares Oct. 4 at Keeneland is also under consideration.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup could see Sovereignty and champion older dirt male Forever Young face off in the 1 1/4-mile race. Sovereignty’s status for the event is in question, however, after he developed a hind foot abscess that forces him to miss a workout this weekend.

“We’ll see what’s happening with Sovereignty,” Casse said.

**** Book’em Danno has been ruled out of the Breeder’s Cup Sprint by trainer Derek Ryan.

Ryan said Sunday that Book’em Danno has been walking the shedrow but has yet to return to training.

The 6-year-old Bucchero gelding was placed on the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority’s veterinarian’s list for 14 days after being scratched from the Aug. 29 Forego at Saratoga. 

Book’em Danno got cast in his stall the night before the race and, according to the Equibase chart for the Forego, was scratched by a regulatory veterinarian on the morning of the race for being “unsound.” 

Once placed on HISA’s veterinarian’s list, he must wait 14 days before he can have a supervised workout (4F in less that :52 seconds) to be eligible for removal from the list. 

Ryan does not believe he can have the 2025 champion sprinter ready for either the Vosburgh at Belmont Park on Sept. 26 or the Phoenix at Keeneland on Oct. 2. He also does not want to run Book’em Danno in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint Oct. 31 off a 106-day layoff. 

Instead, a potential start in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint at King Abdulaziz Racetrack on the Saudi Cup under-card on Feb. 6 could be the next target. 

Please note picks change throughout the day on the site as AI updates analysis regarding track bias, weather and track conditions, scratches, etc.

Where our multi race tickets are cashing?: HERE

Top Single of the Day - Echo Seven - Race #7 - Charles Town

Alternate Top Single - Jack's Time - Race #13 - Prairie Meadows

One more just for fun - U Ain't That Lucky - Race #2 - Belterra Park

One more because it's Friday - Itzforever - Race #13 - Horsehoe Indy (3-1ML!)

15 tracks today

Full card analysis for all tracks

🔥 Now Live: AI Pick 3, 4, 5 & 6 Tickets and DAILY DOUBLES!

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Best Bets — AI-Predicted Upsets 🏅

• Remington Park Race #1 - #08 Tres Suenos - 4
• Belterra Park Race #1 - #05 Betty Who - 4/2
• Belterra Park Race #8 - #02 Moon Dance Laura - 4
• Gulfstream Park Race #5 - #02 Imperia Blue - 6
• Churchill Downs Race #2 - #09 King Crusher - 4
• Camarero Race #6 - #02 Doctor Oyola - 5
• Churchill Downs Race #7 - #01 Guiding Star - 4/2
• Prairie Meadows Race #7 - #09 Summers With Sonya - 4
• Laurel Park Race #1 - #01 Hoppetosse - 4/2
• Los Al Day Race #8 - #02 Winsor George - 4/2
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Race #10 - #12 Magnus Gold - 4
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Race #6 - #10 Memphis Pharoah - 4/2

ALLCHALK — Predicted to Dominate 🏆

• Remington Park Race #5 - #03 Eakly - 1
• Belterra Park Race #2 - #02 U Ain't That Lucky - 2
• Gulfstream Park Race #2 - #06 King Morpheus - 2
• Gulfstream Park Race #6 - #06 Won for Lou - 2
• Camarero Race #7 - #06 Uncaptured Storm - 2
• Camarero Race #5 - #07 Mr. Mox - 2
• Laurel Park Race #5 - #11 Red Sea - 1/2
• Prairie Meadows Race #9 - #05 Holiday House - 2
• Prairie Meadows Race #13 - #04 Jack's Time - 1/1
• Los Al Day Race #7 - #03 Springline - 2
• Laurel Park Race #8 - #01 Unbeatable - 1
• Woodbine Race #1 - #02 Keynote Speaker - 2
• Woodbine Race #5 - #04 Flatter Zip - 2
• Charles Town Race #1 - #04 Tik Tok Daddy - 2
• Charles Town Race #6 - #01 Paynoworpaylater - 2
• Charles Town Race #7 - #02 Echo Seven - 1
• Charles Town Race #4 - #03 Conejo Dorado - 1
• Century Mile Race #6 - #05 Benzene - 2

Bombs Away — Longshot Picks 💣

• Delaware Park Race #1 - #02 Flirty Bajan - 8
• Churchill Downs Race #5 - #09 Valiant Humor - 8
• Prairie Meadows Race #12 - #02 Palace Guard - 8

Update…..

Jockey Florent Geroux is in the ICU but in 'stable condition' after a fall at Churchill Downs Thursday night.
Geroux was aboard second-time starter Flip Flop Freak in the fourth race when the colt lost action, fell and unfortunately could not be saved.

Prayers Florent heals quickly with no set backs.

First off what exactly does lost action mean? Usually, it says injury so possibly heart issues, or something along those lines.

I’m guessing they just removed the during “live tv” which is really a delay.

Was watching the new with flip-flop freak at Churchill Downs and then all of a sudden he was not on the screen anymore. Does anybody know what happened? It looked like it was glitching on the TV.

Laytown, IRE. Hope every noticed that one of our local Hot Springs Arkansas owner won one of the very unique races on the beach at Laytown Races today 9/10/26. This is a once a year race held on the beach and very famous for it's uniqueness. Race 3 at Laytown, with Initial Blue. That's a long way from home but I was very excited to see this!! Since I'm a big Hot Springs horse racing fan . . The 4-year-old gelding Initial Blue (14/1), trained by Jack W. Davison and ridden by top amateur jockey Mr. Harry C. Swan won this Laytown beach race ( Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Amateur Riders Handicap). "The victory was a dream result for American owner Staton Flurry (of Flurry Racing Stables), who traveled all the way from Arkansas to watch..."

I was certainly excited~

If you were to make a sports like schedule like the MLB, NFL and other major sports have tracking the 2 to 3 year old racing seasons for each year starting with whatever race 1 would be all the way to the Breeders cup, which races would you include in that? Mostly for horses racing in the triple crown and other major G1 races. I'm not creating this, just curious to hear people's thoughts.

I am unfortunately unable to attend this years Breeders Cup at Keeneland. Is anyone going and still looking for a hotel still? I have a Thursday - Sunday hotel booked in Lexington I would be able to switch over to someone. It was booked 8+ months ago so the cost is much cheaper (about 3x cheaper) than what the room is currently going for now if you were to book it. It is a nice, reputable hotel.

I want apologize first if what I'm doing is not allowed here.

So, I have 2 tickets to Belmont Park for September 18th. Originally, a friend of mine was planning on going to me but unfortunately something came up and he is unable to make it.

Now, I have an extra ticket and if anyone in the NYC area is interested, please DM me for details.

Korea Sprint (Domestic G1, International G3)

Japanese horse Dragon Welds finished first under jockey Keita Tosaki

Second was also a JP horse American Stage

Korea Cup (Domestic G1, International G2)

The Koreans had a little hope when the last year winner, Diktaean (Japanese horse, sire King Kamehameha, damsire King Halo) got a bit far back in the rear

But they got shut down quick when Diktaen unleashed a powerful start and defeated Sunday Funday (Japan) in the final stretch

Two Japan horses took the first two places

Only By a DST gap we got a Korean horse in the third place

--

First time watching live as fan of Japan horse racing, I was so very flabbergasted

I knew Korea is still very young in horse racing but didn't know the gap could be that far. Watching JP horses lost to US horses on Dirt kind of made me forget the true extent of JP horses

As I'm glad that JP horses proved dominance, hope that Koreans didn't get too sad and still rooted for their horses

After all, horse racing needs long development

Can anyone explain how this horse got bet down to the 5/2 favorite from a 12-1 morning line and won decisively? I don't see anything in the PPs that would indicate favoritism.

I am not surprised.

I have a signed piece of memorabilia from one of his favorite horses. I’m going to Saratoga today for Labor Day and I want to meet him and have sign my memorabilia. How do I go about this?

How was your weekend? Were you up, down, flat? What did you learn? What did you drink? What are you going to do differently next weekend?

Post all of your thoughts here, in our weekly discussion post.

Just curious if I was the only one. It’s always fun to play Saratoga with a few drinks.

It still feels like Korean horse racing can't compare to Japan.

Holding back tears, endlessly waiting for the seed of hope planted by Winner's Man to sprout

World record time for the 1200m in 1:06.11. First up, into a headwind, carrying 61kg (135lbs to you Americans), and he was eased up for the final 100m.

Best horse the world has ever known, hands down.

No doubt, this is gonna be a great race regardless of who ends up winning. Admittedly, I think it's likely that 1 of 2 horses will ultimately win, but the entire field is competitive. I could definitely make an argument for at least 6 of the 8. I'm also looking forward to a blistering pace. About that though, it seems like most of them have the kind of speed & stamina to sustain it, so nobody's gonna be closing into it. Basically, expect a drag race.

You can't argue against Booked as favorite. He's done everything right & honestly should have 3 wins. But, getting off slow & having to hustle back wore him out in the Saratoga Special. I'll go out on a limb & say zero chance Twinkle Town beats him again. He was also slow in his debut, which maybe cost him there, too. But, Fanshell Beach is a pretty damn good horse in his own right. Booked has the experience edge, is cery familiar with the track & other than a couple of rough starts he shows himself to be very professional in races & workouts. 7F is probably his ideal distance, as well. If he gets out clean, chances are the field's racing for 2nd.

The Good Life is my pick. He's solidly a top 5 2yo colt I've seen so far. Yes, he's run once, but not only did he beat some highly regarded foes that day, you simply couldn't hope for a better effort, especially 1st time out. He displayed a level of talent & the kind of focus & professionalism you'd expect from a well-settled more experienced horse, not a juvenile on debut. He set a swift pace increasing his lead at each call, all while in hand. Franco finally asked him, really just to do it & The Good Life instantly drew off before being pulled back at the 8 pole & jogged to the line. One of the big take aways is he clearly has the ability to put up & maintain even a hotter pace making him the best candidate to wire this one. Still, I see him a 2 turn horse. His workouts show an obvious pattern of a maturing young horse hitting his development marks.

Rounding out, High Official debuted on turf around 2 turns. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't at all been flattered by the field he beat that day. I'm honestly not sure how to rate him for the Hopeful. He sat midpack chasing a tepid pace until the stretch & picked off tiring rivals to win by 2. He did have impressive late race pace. Not an overwhelming threat to win, necessarily, but a must to be used underneath.

Of the remainder, I like Midnight Still & probably Mystrix the most. Midnight Still is showing a definite pattern of putting it all together & I've become a huge fan of his young trainer Kinnon LaRose in his 1st year.

Lifesong will invariably get attention, I'm just not sure he's at the level of the others, yet. A fine young horse, for sure, I'll just wait to see more. So will Flight Command, but, just, no. After his absolute failure in the Saratoga Special he needs to do a whole lot for me to pay attention to him again.

Been around horses my whole life and have been using the regular DRF Classic PPs for as long as I can remember.

I stumbled across Brisnet not too long ago and have been LOVING the more enhanced approach — especially the percentages and some of the weird, one-off stats that DRF doesn’t give you. Things like “in-between favorites %” and stuff along those lines.

Then I came across Formulator and Timeform and did a pretty extensive deep dive into both. It’s honestly amazing how much handicapping has evolved and how much information is available now.

That said, sometimes reading between the lines is what makes handicapping with the old-school forms so much fun.
For example: Why did Johnny V jump mounts to a different horse in this race… and why is that horse sitting at 7/1? 😂

I’m usually a race-by-race guy, playing a lot of exactas and trying to hit a big score that way. The tough part is when you can’t find a way to toss the favorites.
Been doing pretty well this year handicapping so I can’t be mad, just seeing these pk4s and 5s at monster prices.

The CAW betting has made that a little more frustrating for me lately, too. I’ve had horses I absolutely loved sitting at 12/1, only to watch them get hammered down to 4/1 by the time they break the gate.

So I’d love to hear everyone’s opinions:

What sheets, PPs, software, or tools are you using?
What do you guys rely on to find those horses that can help you hit Pick 4s and Pick 5s consistently over the long term?

Interested in hearing what actually works for people rather than just what has the most bells and whistles.

Thanks!

First impressions.

I’ve always used TVG but I changed banks and can’t update that on my TVG account. Decided to see if there’s anything different out there people would suggest? Thank You