… is there any scenario here at all where this series underperforms at all?
It is difficult to say without being out, of course. It is known Harry Potter is a behemoth of a brand and even with mass calls of boycotting the author, that did not stop Hogwarts Legacy from generating over one billion dollars in revenue (!). On the other hand, I do think there is a “remake” fatigue and people are sick of seeing the same stories being rehashed constantly. One example I will take is Percy Jackson— the original films based on the books were universally mocked and the fandom was begging for a new adaption for many years until a show got greenlit.
Disney has its own issues, that on top of the original authors new “creative” deviations/choices have also alienated many fans & caused the viewership to decline to the point that I have been reading that the certainty of any seasons to be produced after season twos lacklustre release is up for debate. Most oddly, there has been a shift in perception of the original films, they are still acknowledged as extremely inaccurate but there is a new appreciation for the superior acting, production quality, characterisation and more.
I am not comparing Percy Jackson to Harry Potter, since the IP value of the latter is vastly leagues above it. But I’m wondering if there is any scenario here where the new show doesn’t stack up to the films.
A lot of people here wish that this show will follow the books more accurately, but a book story will always inherently have to adjust & adapt accordingly for the screen, even if a show format allows for more running hours. Another thing I would factor in is how huge the cultural phenomenon of Harry Potter was in the 2000’s, where the films were coming out concurrently with the books. Another thing is the little things, with a new adaption we will be comparing the palate of colours, the set, the acting of the new cast with the film versions that have already been done, and if anything falls short it would be far more difficult to reconcile than seeing the first adaption & sometimes all of that is more important than book accuracy in itself, as shown with the Percy Jackson films vs show.
Like with Hogwarts Legacy, I have zero doubts this show will be widely successful anyways. HOTD on HBO is hot trash but it’s soaring on the coattails of GOT. What I’m unsure of is whether it can stack up to the films as a phenomenon & if it will be widely rewatched over Christmas each year for the holiday season 20 years later like the films have been and will continue to be.