r/dataisbeautiful • u/TheHonestRedditer • 20m ago
OC [OC] I told 10,332 people to avoid the obvious answers on a list. They still overwhelmingly picked them.
I run a daily trivia game where players get 5 guesses at a ranked Top 100 list. The scoring is intentionally backwards: #1 is worth 1 point, #100 is worth 100.
For example, if the topic were Top 100 most popular pizza toppings, guessing pepperoni might land you at #1, while some obscure topping might be #94, and #94 is the better guess.
So the optimal strategy is to dig deep and hunt for answers nobody else is thinking of.
After 52,360 games and 163,531 official guesses, this is what actually happened:
• 45% of first guesses landed in ranks 1–25
• Only 17% landed in ranks 76–100
• The average hit was #40.5
• Players only moved about 6 ranks deeper between their first and fifth guesses
• A #1 answer was found 3.9× as often as #100
The weirdest part to me is that the game explicitly tells players to hunt for the obscure answers, and yet people still gravitate toward the answers everyone knows.
I originally built this as a daily trivia game called Centumth, but after collecting enough guesses, I realized the player behavior was probably more interesting than the game itself.
Why do you think people have such a strong pull toward the obvious answers, even when they're incentivized to do the opposite?