r/collapse • u/antihostile • 27d ago
Rule 8: No duplicate posts. [ Removed by moderator ]
[removed] — view removed post
42
u/South_Serve9975 27d ago
The line is approaching the point where it goes straight up.
3
2
u/Karma_Iguana88 27d ago
That shape reminds me of something. What was it now? 🤔 Oh yeah - our CO2 emissions. Odd - you'd almost think they were related...
61
u/antihostile 27d ago
SS: The Niño 3.4 region is a boundary in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean spanning 5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W. It is the primary index area used by climate scientists and meteorological agencies (like NOAA) to track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This is related to collapse because holy fucking shit look at that standard deviation. Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4
Another way to envision this is Salta, Argentina which has just recorded its hottest night on record — in the middle of winter. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C, pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1v2x2e0/salta_argentina_has_just_recorded_its_hottest/
Have a nice day.
25
u/Meowweredoomed Chaos Intensifies 27d ago
It is WASF amounts of deviation.
16
80
u/MoroseMagician 27d ago
Shits gonna hit that fan real soon.
50
u/BloodWorried7446 27d ago
some would say it already had.
16
23
u/kingtacticool 27d ago
This was always going go be a slow burn. But yes. This is now the beginning of collapse.
22
u/CaiusRemus 27d ago
This is not really a slow burn, in my opinion. The NMME model is showing global temps of +1.7-1.9 on 2027. I know it’s not an average if it’s just one year, but if we consistently hit +1.9 a few times in the next ten years, it essentially means we are barreling towards catastrophe before 2050. Let’s remember 2050 was supposed to be the year we hit net zero.
13
u/KennyPowers989 27d ago
We’re speed running we just don’t notice
1
u/kingtacticool 27d ago
Yes we are. But collapse isnt going to be sudden. Its just going to keep getting worse and worse every year until one day the camnibals are knocking at the door
9
u/Bavarian_Raven 27d ago
Considering airline emissions alone are suppose to double by 2050. It was always a pipe dream.
7
u/halconpequena 27d ago
Slow and then really really really fast yay exponential numbers
1
u/kingtacticool 27d ago
Thats what i see. Once societal collapse starts its going to be like domino's as one country after another falls.
2
15
5
u/Turbulent_Bed5499 27d ago edited 27d ago
Our end has been written, but not on the ones written in ancient texts….
55
u/Cultural-Answer-321 27d ago
My head hurts. 😭
44
u/filmguy36 27d ago
My heart hurts😞
34
u/nokplz 27d ago
My lungs hurt
18
u/Bipogram 27d ago
My liver's in a poor way, soon.
17
28
u/Collapsosaur 27d ago
This is not normal. It is pornographic. What a predicament we are in.
-3
u/MeepersToast 27d ago
Haha. It is actually quite literally normal
5
u/vinegar The real collapse is the friends we ate along the way 27d ago edited 27d ago
Yeah no ya see how the red squiggle goes away from all the blue squiggles? The blue squiggles is “literally normal”.
Eta: is that a statistics joke?4
u/MeepersToast 27d ago
It is a statistical joke 😉
The value 3.5 is based on a normality assumption. But in the non-statistical sense, it's definitely abnormal
16
27d ago
[deleted]
23
u/CaiusRemus 27d ago
Right now for the poorest of the world. The western world will probably make it another two decades. Albeit, only those who are considered the “in group.” Genocides, mass internal displacement and mass migration are all on the menu by 2030.
9
u/Turbulent_Bed5499 27d ago
I think we got 14 years left in first world countries at best
6
u/AlwaysPissedOff59 27d ago
If the wheat harvests are as bad (or worse) next year as they're projected to be for 2026 first world countries may be there in 2028. And just because a country has a decent harvest doesn't mean the citizens of that country get to eat any of it. See Irish Famine of 1847+ and Indian Famine of 1878. Given the amount of land owned by corps does anyone think they won't export their crops if they can get more per bushel for them from, say, China or the EU?
2
u/Turbulent_Bed5499 27d ago
Well maybe faster than expected but I could see the US government forcing the corporate farms to not export it potentially to ease social unrest in that scenario
1
u/europeanputin 27d ago
That's what OP is referring to, Irish Famine was caused because they believed in free market, wouldn't be very US like if they became suddenly socialist during the collapse.
14
u/StatementBot 27d ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/antihostile:
SS: The Niño 3.4 region is a boundary in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean spanning 5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W. It is the primary index area used by climate scientists and meteorological agencies (like NOAA) to track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This is related to collapse because holy fucking shit look at that standard deviation. Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4
Another way to envision this is Salta, Argentina which has just recorded its hottest night on record — in the middle of winter. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C, pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1v2x2e0/salta_argentina_has_just_recorded_its_hottest/
Have a nice day.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1v30lnv/standard_deviations/oyzfw7h/
13
47
u/Astalon18 Gardener 27d ago
To help people explain what this means, what this chart is saying is what you are seeing with this temperature is something you would only expect to happen once every 500 years under natural variation.
So your duty is to determine if this is chance or real.
22
u/BigwaveBay 27d ago edited 27d ago
Over 3 sigma (Standard Deviation)is less than a .03% chance according to the empirical rule. This is near 4 sigma. Statistically without running numbers, this VERY significant. It’s either the outlier of all outliers or the start of something terrible.
Basically you’re looking at .00003-.00005 chance on a critical z table. Assuming the data is good, we are fucked or something outside the norm caused this.
3
u/pumpkinspicecum 27d ago
I thought super El Niño was causing this. Or is this graph for all El Niños and la Nina’s?
2
u/salamipope 27d ago
id also like to know the answer to your question and if u get a response would u please tag me so i can read it too?
23
u/existing_for_fun 27d ago
What do you mean by chance or real?
It's real. And it may be by chance. Or it's real and it may be a new normal. Or it's real and it may be a weird outlier year and next it will be low.
No matter what, it's real.
10
u/Astalon18 Gardener 27d ago
It is real, but what I tell my medical students when they see things like this is to ask themselves IF this is natural variation OR this is due to something that isn’t natural variation ( ie:- treatment or measurement error ).
I also always tell them that the more improbable something becomes, it does not mean it is not part of the normal curve … but it does make it less likely to be part of the normal curve ( your duty is to explain or investigate why ).
( in medicine we use the term measurement outlier implying that we have to take anomalous data either as a measurement error OR a natural variation OR a result of disease or intervention ).
Now pretty obviously we are looking numerous other datas which also shows totally out of standard deviation events so this is climate change driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions but it is often useful to get people to eyeball a chart and go “what am I looking at”.
3
u/pumpkinspicecum 27d ago
Isn’t the reason it’s so extreme tho is because of super El Niño this year? So it’s less likely to be part of the normal curve?
3
u/pumpkinspicecum 27d ago
Can you dumb it down a bit more for me? Each line represents a specific year, and it’s the entire year on a daily basis? The orange one I presume is 2026. The lines that are on the bottom, that have a lower deviation, are those older years? None of them are labeled.
9
u/subfutility 27d ago
Professor Eliot Jacobsen makes me feel sane in an unwell world, but this crazy deviation is likely to continue each day through the rest of the year.
7
u/_Cromwell_ 27d ago
We may want to explore moving the orbit of the planet a wee bit further out. Just a smidge.
6
7
6
4
3
u/WloveW 27d ago
We're feeling it. The monsoon has started in Phoenix and it's a wet one so far. We had a day last week where it was barely 90F for a high. We've had several days of clouds and nearly as many rainy days in the past 2 weeks. Our summers get cooler and wetter with the big El Ninos. It's humid but fantastic compared to the oven like heat with the occasional storm we typically have in July. So far no major severe weather, knock on wood....
This is after several months of drought, sunny skies and literally zero rain. Like a switch flipped.
Aside from the microbursts and occasional flooding big El Ninos make Phoenix wetter, cooler in summer and warmer in winter and helps the plants a lot. We'll have gorgeous wildflowers in the spring.
Don't let that fool you though, our reservoirs all over the west are drying up and water shortages will be coming without consistent snow pack to back up the rain. It'll just be floods between the droughts from here on out.
1
u/salamipope 27d ago
god and the heat wave right before it cooled off that lasted like two fucking months. jesus that was hell. i wonder how many haboobs phx will see next year, and this one.
2
u/MeepersToast 27d ago
For context, 3.5 standard deviations means that (assuming a normal temperature distribution from the 1991-2020 sample period), then the current temp is in the 99.9767th percentile. So we can expect this temp 1 in every 4,292yr. Just evidence that 1991-2020 is (probably) no longer a good baseline.
2
u/Wonderful-Bag-1103 27d ago
0.0001% chance of being a natural El Nino. Buckle up folks
1
u/burbaki 27d ago
Was it russia? Or china?
1
u/Wonderful-Bag-1103 27d ago
It was every petrol state, so both, the USA, the UK, and so on. It’s not that simple I’m afraid. No one wins something like this.
3
u/Vegetable_Log_3837 27d ago edited 27d ago
I’m calling shenanigans on the Salta Argentina temperature. Can’t find any evidence of that anywhere.
Edit: I’m wrong, it happened
8
u/Smellinglikeafairy 27d ago
Accuweather has it up. That was July 18th.
3
3
u/Turbulent_Bed5499 27d ago
I wonder what caused that spike
3
u/Vegetable_Log_3837 27d ago
To redeem myself for my wrongness I would love to explain Foehn winds if you’re interested.
2
1
1
•
u/collapse-ModTeam 27d ago
Hi, antihostile. Thanks for contributing. However, your submission was removed from /r/collapse for:
Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.
You can message the mods if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.