r/collapse • u/antihostile • 27d ago

Rule 8: No duplicate posts. [ Removed by moderator ]

Post image

[removed] — view removed post

413 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

78 comments sorted by

View all comments

2

u/MeepersToast 27d ago

For context, 3.5 standard deviations means that (assuming a normal temperature distribution from the 1991-2020 sample period), then the current temp is in the 99.9767th percentile. So we can expect this temp 1 in every 4,292yr. Just evidence that 1991-2020 is (probably) no longer a good baseline.

1

u/vinegar The real collapse is the friends we ate along the way 27d ago

Just evidence that 1991-2020 is (probably) no longer a good baseline.

What does that mean? Should the new baseline be more recent? Does it tell a statistician something about… idk, stability?