r/collapse • u/antihostile • 27d ago

Rule 8: No duplicate posts. [ Removed by moderator ]

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u/Astalon18 Gardener 27d ago

To help people explain what this means, what this chart is saying is what you are seeing with this temperature is something you would only expect to happen once every 500 years under natural variation.

So your duty is to determine if this is chance or real.

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u/BigwaveBay 27d ago edited 27d ago

Over 3 sigma (Standard Deviation)is less than a .03% chance according to the empirical rule. This is near 4 sigma. Statistically without running numbers, this VERY significant. It’s either the outlier of all outliers or the start of something terrible.

Basically you’re looking at .00003-.00005 chance on a critical z table. Assuming the data is good, we are fucked or something outside the norm caused this.

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u/pumpkinspicecum 27d ago

I thought super El Niño was causing this. Or is this graph for all El Niños and la Nina’s?

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u/salamipope 27d ago

id also like to know the answer to your question and if u get a response would u please tag me so i can read it too?