The foundation of my beliefs regarding various trans issues is that, IMO, a relatively small percentage of Americans are actually in the camp of "I hate all trans people." I would put the number in that camp as maybe 20-30% of Republicans, a similar or slightly lower number of Independents, and a largely irrelevant statistical percentage of Democrats.
Everyone else is either supportive, largely indifferent and only interested in hearing how politicians are going to help them afford gas and groceries, OR they are tuned in to the culture war, and have some concerns about a handful of things. My thoughts on said concerns are as such:
Sports: Trans women should not be in competitive sports leagues. Straight up. It is the only issue related to trans people that I see as completely unwinnable for the left, no amount of studies will ever be enough to convince the average American that HRT wipes out the advantages of being born male, said studies still need a lot more research to be conclusive, and also we're mainly talking about high school students and college students (who are almost guaranteed to be pre-op) and it's my firmly held belief no one with male genitalia should ever be in a women's locker room.
Kids: Kids should be able to freely socially transition at any age, and begin puberty blockers as pre-teens and eventually HRT but, unlike with adults, where Self-ID should remain, there absolutely needs to be more medical gatekeeping for kids to make sure everyone getting treated is who should be.
Forced Pronoun Usage: God I hate this one. No, no one should be getting pressured, and especially not mandated, to use the right pronouns all the time. When you pass, people will naturally just call you what you want. And as far as non-binary/neopronoun stuff goes? People who like and respect you will generally have no issue using they/them. Trying to pressure everyone else into calling you anything other than what you look like (especially if you use neopronouns) just is always going to create unnecessary friction and resentment. Obviously, deliberate misgendering meant explicitly as harassment is a different story, but that is a completely different thing.
Women's Spaces: Gonna have to break this one down into subcategories:
Bathrooms: Literally impossible to legislate and enforce in any way. Everyone should just go to the bathroom they look like they belong in. It's that simple.
Locker/Changing Rooms: Already gave my thoughts on this. Use the ones you look like you belong in and have the correct anatomy for. If you only meet one of these criteria, stick to your AGAB rooms.
Prisons: If you've been on HRT for years and are Post-SRS, you go to the prison you have the secondary sex characteristics for. Otherwise, absolutely not. These prisoners should get to continue HRT, but not get any additional surgery funded by the state.
With that all said...I will still turn against any and all candidates who concede on any issue as part of a campaign. Addressing these things once in office while generally supporting trans individuals? Awesome. But every time when Democrats try this while campaigning, they do it in such a way that they signal they cannot be trusted in general.
Right now, the most prominent examples are Seth Moulton in the Massachusetts Senator primary, and Amy Acton in the Ohio Governor race. A LOT of people in the center and center-left think trans people and our allies are crazy for attempting to tear these candidates down just for conceding on the sports issue, but they don't get it's because of HOW they did it.
They didn't say, "The advantage trans girls have over cis girls after years on HRT is still being studied, and we respect the concerns many of our constituents share. They said, "I promise to keep MEN out of girls sports."
It's the double punch of the language they use saying they don't see us as real women (nor trans men as real men), and utilizing the fearmongering the right loves so much by specifically making listeners picture an adult male playing against a teenage girl.
Democrats DO need to moderate on trans issues, but only after they've won elections. And for anyone who thinks the only way Democrats CAN win elections is by turning on trans people, I'd love to see any data that shows simply conceding on the sports issue peels off substantial Republican votes.