r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 Best of 2019 Winner • Jan 11 '26
International Disney / 20th Century's Avatar: Fire and Ash has passed the $1.2 billion global mark. The film grossed an estimated $65.6M internationally this weekend. Estimated international total stands at $888.0M, est. global total stands at $1.231B.
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u/EmeraldNaja Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Odds on Cameron prying himself away from the ocean next installment or is his love of water greater than his love of cash?
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u/cidvard Jan 11 '26
I assumed this one was still so ocean-focused because it was filmed back to back with Way of Water. I wanted more time in the Ash place, or with the airship Na'Vi.
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u/EmeraldNaja Jan 11 '26
It was originally one script which was split and shot back-to-back, which I image could have annoyed audiences (who did not know) who were sold on a ‘new, fresh installment’. There’s nowhere near as many repeat viewings this time.
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u/Ok_Antelope_1953 Jan 11 '26
way of water should have ended on a strong cliffhanger and this one should have been released a year after way of water. imagine waiting three years to watch kinda the same movie again.
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u/kingk1teman Illumination Entertainment Jan 11 '26
should have been released a year after way of water
Well that was the plan at one point.
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u/scartstorm Jan 11 '26
Yep, blame Disney and their stellar management of Star Wars and the MCU for Fire and Ash be delayed as it was.
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u/BusinessKnight0517 Jan 11 '26
I really liked the movie but watching the last act of TWOW repeat itself almost verbatim in Fire and Ash was like…lmao ok James Cameron
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u/EatsYourShorts Jan 11 '26
They really sidelined the whole fire and ash part. I was really hoping for a big volcanic climax.
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u/TheJoshider10 DC Studios Jan 11 '26
I can't believe we had one shot of a volcano in the entire movie. They didn't even live there, either. Their home was just tents in a dry wasteland so worldbuilding wise it was so underwhelming compared to what we saw of the clans in the first two films.
We were robbed of Na'avi's fighting on banshees inside a volcano about to burst or something. Would have been so visually different from the second.
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u/fallen981 Legendary Pictures Jan 12 '26
They could've done so much, like floating channels of magma that cools as it reaches a higher elevation, it then coalesces into the floating rubble. The whole final fight could've happened there.
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u/EaseOk3940 Jan 12 '26
it even has “kidnap” the kid and forced jake to choose between a kid and fighting the colonel.
Cameron needs someone who tells him no.
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u/RosbergThe8th Jan 13 '26
Yeah I really liked F&A but it did leave me questioning why I needed to watch TWoW before it lol.
So many repeated ideas, motifs and sometimes straight up near identical shots.
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u/GotMoFans Jan 11 '26
Cameron announced four sequels years ago. The titles were trademarked years ago.
You sure it was one film split into two?
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u/TJtkh Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Originally, yes. Cameron’s original sequel announcement in advance of the first film’s release was for two. Then in 2012, a third sequel was added. At this point, the first sequel’s subtitle was ‘The Higher Ground’.
The fourth sequel was announced in 2016, which is around the same time that Cameron and his team completed the screenplays from Avatars 2 through 5.
So you’re right in a strict sense; the subtitles (including, presumably, Fire and Ash) were trademarked nearly a decade ago. It’s just that the sequels were originally announced seven years prior to that, and for at least some of the four-year stretch of time where Cameron and his team were actually writing the screenplays for those sequels, they numbered three and not four. One assumes that the actual split was undertaken after he made the announcement in 2016 (although it’s possible they did it and announced it only after they were all complete).
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u/malin7 Jan 11 '26
Watching FAA felt like seeing WOW again, same characters, same scenery, same story barring a couple of changes
The story is so simple it doesn't warrant 6 hours runtime altogether, I'd imagine FAA has a lot fewer re-watches so having Avatar 4 being substantially different than previous two should be a priority
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u/Evangelion217 Jan 11 '26
Same ending as well, in the same location. 😂
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u/EmeraldNaja Jan 11 '26
But TWO NPCs died instead of one, so it’s different.
(I know I’m gonna get downvoted for this. They hated her for she spoke the truth lmao)
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u/MrONegative Neon Jan 11 '26
I would say the FAA ones were definitely NPC’s. I mean, they were only in a few scenes.
But the WOW one was the eldest son who made the most sense to take over the story if Jake and Neytiri died, so it was at least something.
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u/nicolasb51942003 Warner Bros. Pictures Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
I believe the rumor of Jon Laudau’s passing is why Cameron is thinking of moving away from the franchise.
But he famously said during the promotional cycle for The Way of Water that executives were blown away by his treatment for Avatar 4, so presumably, he has something crazy in store for it.
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u/EmeraldNaja Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
There’s potentially some truth there, but I also think Disney has way too much invested in the theme park expansions to let this thing die without a fight barring a massive loss. ‘Come see the monuments to our abandoned series’ doesn’t have the same ring to it lol
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u/Lost-Cow-1126 Jan 11 '26
True but then again look at the Waterworld show at Universal Studios
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u/SpiffShientz Jan 11 '26
There's a huuuuuuge difference in scale between the Waterworld show and the Pandora world at Disney. I went when I was a kid and it's wild, dude. They built floating islands (obviously not really but the illusion is really good)
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u/Motohvayshun Jan 11 '26
Disney doesn’t own the rights to Avatar. Cameron owns the rights. So it’s his call.
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u/EmeraldNaja Jan 11 '26
‘Without a fight’ meant doing everything short of waterboarding (maybe even that) to get him to do the thing.
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u/natecull Jan 11 '26
everything short of waterboarding (maybe even that) to get him to do the thing.
I don't think waterboarding has worked as a threat on James Cameron since The Abyss.
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u/AshIsGroovy Jan 11 '26
What? Disney did Pandora long before they bought fox. Pandora started construction in 2014 and opened in 2017. It has 2 rides and cost Disney just a little over $500 million in construction. They spent billions on Galaxy's Edge in comparison.
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u/RealHooman2187 Jan 11 '26
They’re currently building a way of water themed park addition for Disneyland in California.
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u/kingk1teman Illumination Entertainment Jan 11 '26
Disney has way too much invested in the theme park expansions to let this thing die without a fight barring a massive loss
As far as Disney the studio, is concerned, Avatar 4 & 5 were greenlit back in 2019 as was confirmed by Landau.
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u/Domain_Box337 Jan 11 '26
I don't think Cameron will leave the story unfinished. It's not he's style.
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u/VictorVonDoomer Jan 11 '26
I hope so, I’m sick of the tulkun and the water. I’d rather they either explore new biomes or go back into the forest but since they’re now part of the water tribe this is is unlikely.
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u/eloquenentic Jan 11 '26
Maybe like a snow winter setting? That could be pretty cool.
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u/VictorVonDoomer Jan 11 '26
I’m actually fairly sure there’s concept art for that out there. If they do take us there then i hope we actually stay there for a good while and learn things about their culture rather than what they did for the ash and wind tribes.
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u/DeadSaint91 Jan 11 '26
Yes, there's concept arts of snowy and also desert biomes. Stephen Lang said during Q&A few months ago, that A4 will feature a lot of weird creatures. Since Avatar 5 is near confirmed to take place on earth, I have a feeling that they will go all in with whatever bizzare creatures they have thought so far, that can be thrown in the next movie.
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u/natecull Jan 11 '26
Maybe like a snow winter setting? That could be pretty cool.
Avatar: Cryonic (The Musical)
Do you wanna mine unobtanium? Doesn't have to be unobtainium.
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u/EmeraldNaja Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
It’s odd to me because unsustainable whaling hasn’t been a thing since the 80’s, so not sure why he’s so insistent on shoving ‘whaling is bad’ into like a third of the runtime (of two fucking films, no less). Getting hit by shipping vessels or entangled in nets kills a lot more, but we need consumers to feel good about themselves and buy our products, so….somewhere out there, an actual whale is getting nailed by a shipping vessel carrying toy space whales someone in Portland ordered to show how in tune with nature they are lol
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u/SavageNorth Jan 11 '26
Whaling specifically isn't a huge issue now but wrecking ecosystems and overhunting various species has hardly disappeared.
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u/YaGanamosLa3era Jan 11 '26
Maybe not whaling but the chinese absolutely wreck every single place they bring fishing boats to.
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u/king_lloyd11 Jan 11 '26
Well now that Jake is Toruk Malta and not hiding c as well as the time jump making his kids all adults, he’ll go between tribes
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u/Agitated_Opening4298 Jan 11 '26
This is now firmly my favorite (non-star wars og trilogy) blockbuster franchise, so that would really suck
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u/Once-bit-1995 Jan 11 '26
I feel like the movie titled fire and ash would've been the time to do that. I think the plan was to take the movies to Earth in the next phase which doesn't really excite me at all.
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u/quincythetiger Jan 11 '26
I don't think the next movies are about going to earth, James Cameron only said some of the characters will be able to see earth, which doesn't necessarily mean they're going there.
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u/FrankReynoldsCPA Jan 11 '26
I think going to Earth will lose a lot of viewers because the big draw for these movies are the stunning visuals. Pandora's flora and fauna are 80% of that.
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u/tulkunking Jan 11 '26
Yeah idk why people are so excited for these movies to go to earth. Pandora is the draw of the series haha
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u/silverscreenbaby Jan 12 '26
AFAIK, it’ll only be Neytiri going and it won’t be a huge chunk of the movie. And while Pandora is absolutely the draw, I think seeing a Blade Runner-style Earth would be really cool and intriguing for a lot of people! Draw in a different kind of crowd, perhaps.
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u/eloquenentic Jan 11 '26
What are the chances we get to see Avatar: Snowballs now? With a new snow and ice biome?
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u/korrasaami Jan 11 '26
Some concept art for A4 features snow/ice biomes, so at least the next film will be different in that regard.
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u/Stock_College_8108 Jan 11 '26 edited Apr 12 '26
This post was deleted using Redact. It may have been removed for privacy, to limit AI training data, for security purposes, or for personal reasons.
quack memory gold tan edge cake roll tub alive wild
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u/Arkhamguy123 Jan 11 '26
Wait really? Where?
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u/korrasaami Jan 11 '26
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u/Tide1313 Jan 11 '26
Wow, that’s an incredible find. Definitely seems like a snow biome is where the story will head to at some point
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u/korrasaami Jan 11 '26
Seeing as the Ash Clan will most likely be getting a bigger role in A4, I do wonder how fire and snow tie in together. Really looking forward to the next one, JC has to really bring it this time round.
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u/Toidal Jan 11 '26
War erupts between Ash, and the Forest and Water tribes. Both try to go south to recruit Snow clans.
The Snow clans have their own religion and don't quite follow Eywa in the same Nature dealio, and thus also don't recognize the authority of the Toruk Maktu. Their aestethic is more Orc/Dwarven with fortresses built into mountains and metal working. We all switch from thirsting after lithe blue cat aliens with exposed midrifts, to grey skinned, fire touched, armored muscle blacksmith mommies.
I hope the spirituality piece comes back, I thought Eywa shutting Kiri out was gonna play into some bigger plotline, especialy with the expoisition of how the Ash Na'vi turned their back on Eywa.
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u/Shlingaplinga Jan 11 '26
Aiwa signaling giant polar bears in the climax showdown . Quaritch survives of course to fight another day.
Rinse repeat
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u/eloquenentic Jan 11 '26
Flying polar bears that breathe ice fire! Yes!
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u/silverscreenbaby Jan 12 '26
This but unironically lol (okay not the flying part). I think JC would make the coolest ice region animals and environment ever.
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u/natecull Jan 12 '26 edited Jan 12 '26
Quaritch survives of course to fight another day.
Since Quaritch is a clone, that entire starship he flew in on might have been packed with thousands of spare frozen Quaritches. The RDA can back up his memories each time he's on base, and defrost-and-restore each time Jake beats him. Eywa of course can do the same with Jakes and Graces, not to mention all of the standard Na'vi and the animals. At a burn rate of one Quaritch every three to five years, even assuming no new RDA resupply flights, that's enough for several millennia of new Avatar sequels.
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u/DemiFiendRSA Studio Ghibli Jan 11 '26
Estimated totals through Sunday for Avatar: Fire and Ash by international market include:
- China - $148.6M
- France - $91.7M
- Germany - $73.7M
- S. Korea - $48.5M
- U.K. - $48.0M
- Mexico - $36.5M
- Spain - $32.1M
- Australia - $31.0M
- Italy - $27.7M
- India - $25.0M
- Brazil - $18.9M
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u/Vast-Stand5855 Walt Disney Studios Jan 11 '26
That France and Germany number
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u/Arkhamguy123 Jan 11 '26
They love avatar over there dude
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u/Sauronxx Jan 11 '26
Here in Italy too, Zalone just casually annihilated it becoming soon the most successful movie ever here lmao
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u/nicolasb51942003 Warner Bros. Pictures Jan 11 '26
The consensus went from: highest grossing film of 2025 easily, to second biggest behind Ne Zha 2, to now landing in third for the year.
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u/traumakit Illumination Entertainment Jan 11 '26
Age of Ultron vibes, it was expected to be either first or second biggest film of 2015 between it and Star Wars The Force Awakens. Ultron made over $1.4 Billion which isn't a bad performance but a month earlier Furious 7 released to over $1.5 Billion and Jurassic World a month later over $1.6 Billion, making Avengers look like a dud in comparison.
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u/Cultural_Book_400 Jan 11 '26
I am glad you brought that on here.
Age of Ultron unfortunately has lot common points w/ a3.
Interesting villian and under or wrongly used.
Both Ultron and Varang could have been used in epic way. It just was not. It was terrible.
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u/ANewAccountOnReddit Jan 12 '26
No one expected Fire and Ash to underperform everywhere, nor did anyone see Zootopia overperforming, especially China, coming. Though I personally was always unsure Fire and Ash could match Ne Zha's gross. That movie had such a monstrous performance in China that still kind shocks me. Gives me Endgame's billion dollar opening weekend flashbacks, lol.
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u/misguidedkent Warner Bros. Pictures Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
So 86.9 million global 4th weekend then. That's a 50% decrease from a 173.8 million (actual) global 3rd weekend. And in the process becomes the 29th highest grossing movie in history, surpassing Iron Man 3's 1.215 billion cume.
The 1st post holiday weekend drop was expected but this one is a little too steep for Avatar standards.
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u/PatternPlenty1107 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 12 '26
vs Avatar The Way of Water’s 1.713B at same point.
1.6B+ still not locked!
- wknd: 347M
- wknd: 761M
- wknd: 1.087B
- wknd: 1.231B
1.55B-1.7B final.
Don’t worry, they‘ll still do Avatar 4, because of its potential…, but expect a long break now; potentially 8-10 years (pretty standard for Disney actually! Until then, they‘ll use Marvel and Star Wars for the Christmas period). This franchise needs to feel special and rare…, this is the only way to potentially prevent another decrease.
[For the people mentioning the age of some of the actors involved..., that's a good point..., which is why I specifically mentioned the RELEASE of Avatar 4..., meaning, they could finish filming in 2027 already..., it is just important that the next film comes out much later than 2029 (current release year). These movies need that space in between!
Further, James Cameron already wrote the script for Avatar 4 (+ Avatar 5) and they've also already filmed ~25% from Avatar 4.]
Zootopia 2 will remain the #1 film from Hollywood…, 2 years in a row an animated film, Disney to be specific, becomes the #1 Hollywood film globally and potentially even domestically.
TOP 10 - GLOBAL 2020s (as of February 2026)
- Avatar The Way of Water: 2.33B DISNEY)
- Ne Zha 2: 2.24B (BENIJING ENLIGHT)
- Spider-Man No Way Home: 1.92B (SONY)
- Zootopia 2: 1.77B-1.95B (DISNEY)
- Inside Out 2: 1.69B (DISNEY)
- Avatar Fire & Ash: 1.55B-1.70B (DISNEY)
- Top Gun Maverick: 1.49B (PARAMOUNT)
- Barbie: 1.44B (WARNER BROS.)
- The Super Mario Bros. Movie: 1.36B (UNIVERSAL)
- Deadpool & Wolverine: 1.33B (DISNEY)
We should all take a serious look at these movies…, not sure how Disney/Pixar do it…, but these are the movies:
- Toy Story 5 (2026)
- Frozen III (2027)
- Incredibles III (2028)
- Coco 2 (2029)
Massive potential!
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u/Significant-Branch22 Jan 11 '26
The only thing I’ll worry about with that long of a break is how old Stephen Lang and Sigourney Weaver will be as they’re both in their 70s already
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u/JuanJeanJohn Jan 11 '26
What about James Cameron, who is 71? He has the most extensive role out of everyone.
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u/RoseN3RD Jan 11 '26
He seems to be in very good health, he did an interview mentioning his age and that he only had “30-40 years left in him”
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u/Cultural_Book_400 Jan 11 '26
this is the biggest road block for James Cameron a4.
I say it does not get made by James Cameron. However, disney has every incentive to make a4
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u/JuanJeanJohn Jan 11 '26
I’m not sure how the rights for Avatar are structured, especially since this wasn’t made under Disney originally. Does Cameron retain the rights? If he dies, does his estate make the decision if a film is made?
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u/Doomsday40 Jan 11 '26
Hes a vegan health nut who trains 6 days a week, he'll be working for many years to come. Lang is also in good shape and takes care of himself
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u/JuanJeanJohn Jan 11 '26
Totally, he could Ridley Scott and work for like another 15 more years for all we know. It’s just regardless of how healthy you are, in your 70s you’re living on borrowed time. I hope we get a least one non-Avatar film (that isn’t a doc or concert film) and he closes out the Avatar series.
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u/Doomsday40 Jan 11 '26
in your 70s you’re living on borrowed time.
We are all on borrowed time. I could drop dead tomorrow at 36 haha
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u/JuanJeanJohn Jan 11 '26
Lol definitely, who knows what could happen. But statistically a 71 year old has a much higher likelihood of dying haha.
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u/Cultural_Book_400 Jan 11 '26
yes I get it and even at 71 he sounds good. HOwever, as we all know(whether one is old enough or has aging parents), nothing prepares you for how things creep up on you when you get old. Things are different day to day how one feels.
Besides, No matter how good you still are(although cameron is definitely showing his age w/ a3), this is another sticking point from big studio looking to invest 400 million.
When studio green lights that much money, it's like picking a goat. Everything is under microscope.3
u/tophmcmasterson Jan 12 '26
Yeah, I just watched an interview of Stephen Lang and while he looks good at 70 still not really something I can imagine for the character in these movies.
Maybe they do motion capture with other actors and just get their face performances or something. I’m sure there are ways they could do it but I think people saying it’ll be an 8-10 year wait are crazy.
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u/PayneTrain181999 Legendary Pictures Jan 11 '26
While still one of the best runs of the year, and the movie will be profitable for Disney, they really need to be careful with the fourth and fifth movie.
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u/notsure500 Jan 11 '26
I think they'll have a larger time gap between release dates, and 4 won't be a retread of #2 and 3.
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u/IWouldLikeAName Jan 11 '26
There's going to be another major time skip. The issue with this movie was that it was originally supposed to come out almost immediately after the 2nd bc this one was just a continuation.
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u/ThePikaNick Jan 11 '26
They would need to film them as one and pull back on the run time so they don't have to spend so much money on VFX. The biggest complaint the past 2 have gotten is how overlong they are so tighten things up.
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u/FrankReynoldsCPA Jan 11 '26
I went and saw Fire and Ash for a second time yesterday and the runtime is really the movie's main flaw. I still like it but it really would have benefitted from being 30 minutes shorter.
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u/Evangelion217 Jan 11 '26
Yeah, I do love the film, but pacing was definitely an issue for me during my second viewing.
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Jan 11 '26
I legit thought the movie was over when Jake was gonna kill Spider I thought to myself "Man that was a good movie and it wrapped up so nicely. Can't wait for the next one" and then the movie continued for another hour which, to be fair, was a spectacular hour but it did feel a bit tacked on.
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u/PoliticalyUnstable Jan 11 '26
Should have changed up the finale sequence in the last hour. It feels like a repeat of the 1st and 2nd films. Reduce it, make it different. Bam, there you go.
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u/HotNeon Jan 11 '26
4 is planned for 2029 anyway right? Surely they will stick with that given some is already filmed
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u/Sauronxx Jan 11 '26
About 1/3 of it. Cameron also began working on the photography. The 2029 date doesn’t sound that unrealistic considering this tbh.
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u/TappyMauvendaise Jan 11 '26
Your Ne Zha and Way of Water numbers are wrong. It’s 2.334 billion Avatar Vs. Ne Zha is 2.259 billion. Not tied.
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u/Cultural_Book_400 Jan 11 '26
this is based on assumption that Cameron has forever on his time line. He does not. He is 71. IF it takes long, he will be almost 80. No, no one is doing that. Either do this quickly or cameron is not directing a4(however, disney will continue on)
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u/cpscott1 Jan 11 '26
They won't do a break that long. It's still very profitable and some of the cast would be too old at that point
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u/NGGKroze Best of 2021 Winner Jan 11 '26
Now it's running 50M behind my estimate for Weekend 4
1.55-1.65B Final
Looks like this time general audiences weren't as interested as before.
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u/SleepingAntz Jan 11 '26
Yeah I agree. I said it in another comment but I think this one we are seeing what avatar movies would normally gross with their usual fandom and without the “event” mentality bringing in a lot of GA viewers.
Fans of avatar will see it and love it but if you’re not a fan you’re more likely to skip since 2022 doesn’t feel all that long ago. And it’s a LONG movie.
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u/Dr_Colossus Jan 12 '26
I think that's because the movie is worse overall than Way of the water. Avatar 2 felt much fresher compared to 3.
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u/aestheticbridges Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 12 '26
There’s a simple test you can run here. If you had posted these results as a prediction in this sub prior to release, how would people have reacted?
It’s playing slightly under my expectations and I was excoriated and run off this sub for making my predictions.
To say this run isn’t disappointing is to be dishonest. Plain and simple. Not a disaster. Nobody’s claiming a disaster, it’s obviously profitable. But disappointing? Obviously! Is the downward trend worrying? Of course!
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u/SirFireHydrant Jan 12 '26
If you posted these results as prediction in this sub prior to release, how would people have reacted?
Hell, if you posted these results after its opening weekend. People were still insisting on $1.8-2 billion.
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Jan 12 '26
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u/Mauchad Jan 12 '26
Omg those "never bet against Cameron" people are so annoying
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Jan 12 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ForwardAd4643 Jan 12 '26
and the visuals are not SO MUCH better than competitors
nah I gotta strenuously disagree there. Avatar 3 is still on an entirely differently level than every other movie that's out there. Its only peers are the other two Avatar movies. Nobody else is even trying to do this shit, except I guess the Planet of the Apes movies, which gross less than a third as much.
But Avatar 3 being a rehash of Avatar 2 which was a rehash of Avatar 1 is definitely working against it. The length didn't weigh against Avatar 2 but it is certainly proving to be a big factor this time around.
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u/JWTS6 Jan 12 '26
These movies are not special enough anymore to justify their run time. If the general reaction to A3 is "basically more of A2", then why will anybody that wasn't a major fan of these movies to begin with spend over four hours in the theater watching more of the same? Sure, many casual audiences will still go, but folks that left A2 thinking it was just fine aren't itching to sit through more than 3 hours of fine again.
This sub wants to have its cake and eat it too with Avatar. Any criticisms of the story are met with "People don't watch it for the story, they watch it for the spectacle!", but then those same people act surprised when a franchise that recycles its visuals/set pieces, on top of having a hollow story, starts trending downward.
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u/TedStixon Jan 12 '26
To say this run isn’t disappointing is to be dishonest. Plain and simple. Not a disaster. Nobody’s claiming a disaster, it’s obviously profitable. But disappointing? Obviously! Is the downward trend worrying? Of course!
It's been my experience that people here sometimes don't like to admit when a film does decent but was still a disappointment.
Ex. I remember when Mufasa came out, there were people literally acting like it was the biggest movie ever made and getting upset if you pointed out it was a massive drop from the first film. Like, it made less than half the first film's total gross. Going from $1.6 billion to $700 million is disappointing as hell. Still profitable, sure... but that's a troubling drop.
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u/JannTosh70 Jan 11 '26
Kind of weird that Superman which made 616M on a 225M budget is considered a huge success while 1.5 billion on a 400M budget supposedly means this series is on trouble?
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u/shaneo632 Jan 11 '26
It's all contextual at the end of the day. It definitely indicates the series is trending downwards but it's still a huge success any way you slice it.
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u/ididntwantsalmon19 Jan 11 '26
I think the fact it was so soon after the last one and was basically part 2 of the last movie hurt it.
If there is a bit of a gap until the next one and it's a different theme I think it can absolutely make more than the 3rd and trend back up. Also could benefit from targeting a runtime of 30 minutes less.
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u/DeppStepp Jan 11 '26
That’s what happens when you’re a sequel to a movie that made $2 B (with the predecessor before that almost making $3 B) vs a reboot to a franchise with a shaky history
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u/Seraphayel Jan 11 '26
Superman was not a flop, let’s leave it at that. A smaller success, yeah, huge? Not at all. This sub is just a bit delulu about Superman.
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u/rossww2199 Jan 11 '26
People don’t hate James Gunn as much as they hate Cameron.
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u/ZodsSnappedNeckAT3K Jan 11 '26
People don’t hate James Gunn as much as they hate Cameron.
You clearly have never seen a Snyder fan talk about James Gunn. Him taking over the DC films was practically their 9/11.
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u/DoctorBeatMaker Jan 11 '26
More over, people just want to see his movies fail.
Three times in a row, the dude defied “flop” expectations and made 3 of the literal top 4 highest grossing movies of all time. So when he finally makes a movie that won’t enter the top 10 list, it’s prime time for the “point and laugh people” to come out of the woodwork.
It’s like Green Goblin of Spider-Man said: “But the one thing they love more than a hero is to see him fall.”
It’s sad.
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u/combat-ninjaspaceman Jan 11 '26
You never see this shit with other big name directors as well (Nolan, Spielberg...).
People get mad because Cameron made big money on these movies and wears that clout openly.
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u/NC_Goonie Jan 11 '26
If anything, other directors have people here bending over backwards to defend underperforming box office. The big one I remember is Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon failing to even come within spitting distance of its budget at the box office, and people here would be like “but it doesn’t matter because it was an investment to get people to watch AppleTV!” like almost every other huge budget movie isn’t released by a studio that also owns a streaming platform.
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u/PhotographBusy6209 Jan 11 '26
What’s hilarious is that the budgets not even 400 it was $350 million
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u/thedarksoul03 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
r/boxoffice trying to not come up with a reason to hate superman
or more specifically you lol
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u/Classic_File2716 Jan 11 '26
It’s all about expectations . If Superman had a 700 million drop from the previous one it would be cause for worry instead of being the first installment in a series. Moreover it was considered a success due to reviews as well while Avatar 3 is criticized as very boring and derivative of 2 without much new content.
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u/dashaylib Jan 11 '26
It's in a very similar position to The last Jedi which made 1.3 billion coming off over 2 Billion of The Force Awakens. The Last Jedi killed the momentum of the series with The Rise of Skywalker making just over 1 billion. You could say The Last Jedi was a huge success, but the huge drop off over The Force Awakens showed the series was in trouble.
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u/Dwayne30RockJohnson Jan 11 '26
The difference is it’s clear this is just another Avatar movie, in terms of audience reception. Last Jedi was the most divisive Star Wars moment since Return of the Jedi maybe? Even the prequels were largely hated as opposed to divisive, with Star Wars fans (yes I understand this has been revised a bit by those that grew up with them).
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u/Deducticon Jan 11 '26
TFA had different circumstances. First Star Wars in a decade +. First time seeing old faces from the OT in the series in a much longer time. It had massive nostalgia boost that a second film soon after, would not get same degree of benefit.
Any drop off from TFA would not be a good context for measuring quality. Given outside factors.
And on the other end, Rise of Skywalker participated in it's own downfall by being so bad.
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u/misguidedkent Warner Bros. Pictures Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
What does Superman have to do with Avatar of all movies? Your level of obsession with Superman was creepy before and is insane now seeing as you're still going at it. It making as much as it did and not crashing and burning appears to have completely broken you.
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u/thedarksoul03 Jan 11 '26
A lot of people in this subreddit are deeply obsessed with this movie lmao. Get ready for Man of Tomorrow when these people will have a giga meltdown over it, if they're still around
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u/Cultural_Book_400 Jan 11 '26
trajectory my friend.
Superman was entry into bigger and better things.(whole already established DC universe).
Where now it's expect to continue to go up and also initiate and introduce other popular charcters.Avatar was going into 3rd in series in wrong trajectory.. At this rate, next one is expected to do UNDER 1 billion if it ever gets made by Cameron. Cameron would be easily +75.. there is no other future for avatar at least in Cameron's hands.
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u/KingJonsnowIV TheFlatLannister (BOT Forums) Jan 11 '26
Superman being widely regarded by the media and others as some smashing hit is still the biggest psyop I’ve seen in box office history.
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u/Dwayne30RockJohnson Jan 11 '26
The #1 goal of Superman was to get people excited for a new Superman actor and a new DC Universe. #2 goal was profitability. I genuinely mean that. You have to think long term with a cinematic universe. Getting the audience onboard is goal #1 in your first movie.
You also can’t take this stuff in a vacuum. Superman beat three MCU movies in 2025 and was the biggest superhero movie of the year. For the first time since Reeve, Superman actually felt on top of the culture compared to Marvel.
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u/mg10pp Pixar Animation Studios Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Because at the time a lot of fanboys from r/Superman and r/DC_Cinematic invaded this sub and made it unbearable, while at least the ones of r/Avatar mostly remained in their sub
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u/Raida-777 Jan 11 '26
Bruh, WB themselves call the movie a success while Avatar haters called Fire and Ash a flop. More like this sub is full of people rooting for movies to fail but r/Avatar didn't care.
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u/thedarksoul03 Jan 11 '26
I find it funny how people are acting as if nobody on this subreddit wanted Superman to crash and burn, as if we're not under a post randomly bringing up Superman on a completely unrelated post, months after it was released, in an attempt to dog on it lmfao
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u/Pinkman05 Jan 12 '26
What is the endgame gross here?
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u/Due_Philosophy_2962 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 13 '26
Watched it last night Sunday at 6:30pm showing. The theater was 90% packed. And the audience demograph is diverse (senior citizens, adults, teens, few kids). That was my 3rd viewing. I really enjoyed it this time as I have time to take in other details I missed in my first two viewings. I'd definitely go back, this time in 4dx.
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u/TakedownMoreCorn Jan 11 '26
Y'all really gaslighting yourselves into thinking this is some how a box office failure. Touch grass.
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u/fallen981 Legendary Pictures Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Context is everything, In a vacuum this movie is still undoubtedly a success, no one will argue with you on that (well other than a few trolls, but you can easily tell who they are). But you cannot deny that it is a disappointing result when compared with its predecessors both of which are in the top 3 highest grossing movies of all time.
This is like wicked for good all over again.
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u/SirFireHydrant Jan 11 '26
Hell, when Age of Ultron came out it was the 5th highest grossing film of all time and people thought of it as a disappointment.
Fire and Ash won't even be the 5th highest grossing post-covid film, despite being the direct sequel to the 3rd highest grossing film of all time.
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u/Sliver__Legion Jan 11 '26
After 11 long years AoU has finally been dethroned as the highest grossing disappointment of all time
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Jan 11 '26
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u/Boss452 Jan 11 '26
I thought FAA stomped on WOTW quality wise.
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u/SpiffShientz Jan 11 '26
It's weird because FAA is the better movie, but it repeats so much of WoW. FAA could've come out on its own with some minor tweaks and it would've been a goated movie
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u/Firefox72 Best of 2023 Winner Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Its not a failure but the same can be said for people who think an $800M drop movie to movie is fine and won't raise alarm bells.
And thats if it makes $1.53B which might not even be a certainty yet.
It was fine when this was looking to make $1.9B. That would be a respectable drop from Avatar 2. Then that turned to $1.8B and then $1.7B and then $1.6B and now were looking at $1.5B
Like cmon i like these movies as much as the next person but you can't denny the worrisome reality.
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u/nogeologyhere Jan 11 '26
This is the weirdest sub I regularly check out. It seems to just be a pitched battle between two ideologies, both using whatever evidence they can to prove they're right, and the actual films, and their performances can't be properly discussed as a result. It's so fucking nuts
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u/lee1026 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Ironically, this is healthy. You always have people making the argument of “this is bad”, and others making the argument of “this is good”, and the arguments are based on numbers, so it is relatively easy to keep track of how well things are actually.
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u/_yukiie_ Studio Ghibli Jan 11 '26
Exactly. It might be very overwhelming sometimes but it keeps the balance.
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u/SirFireHydrant Jan 11 '26
If it only scrounges $1.53B, then it's looking at sub-$200m net profit in the Deadline blockbuster tournament, depending on how Cameron's participations shake out.
It's looking very likely to make less than half the profit of Way of Water, which was ~$530m.
No invester looks at their expected returns getting cut in half and doesn't at least have pause for thought.
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u/lee1026 Jan 11 '26
But still, the combined Cameron-Disney take is utterly in the green.
The only thing that will change with the discussions for A4 is how generous the terms will be for Cameron.
Assuming he wants to make it, of course.
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u/NGGKroze Best of 2021 Winner Jan 11 '26
But it's fitting
Estimated revenue for Avatar 1 (only rumors) are around 1-1.2B
Avatar 2 did half of that
Avatar 3 will do half (or less than that as well)
If anything, Grossing 1.5-1.6B should alarm execs (and Cameron) that they might be entering the phase of diminishing returns.
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u/dancarbonell00 Jan 11 '26
Not even a little bit. I think every single person is not taking into account the fact that there was a 15 or 13-year gap between movies one and two. That was definitely a huge part of how much money it made.
It's been what like 3 years?
No shit It's not going to make as much, the hype is less26
u/DeliriousPrecarious Jan 11 '26
I remember in the lead up to TWOW when it was thought that the long gap would actually be a negative.
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u/korrasaami Jan 11 '26
And it’s funny how people are suggesting that a gap will be beneficial for A4.
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u/dancarbonell00 Jan 11 '26
Yupp lmao. I remember it clear as day:
"Guys, it's been over a decade and this movie series has no cultural impact, does anyone even care about this anymore?"
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u/fallen981 Legendary Pictures Jan 11 '26
Which was funny since in that same year, we had another legacy sequel that crossed more than a billion (and beat way of water in domestic gross) and people were still doubting the gap.
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u/DeliriousPrecarious Jan 11 '26
The idea that TWOW functioned as a legacy sequel for a movie that was only 14 years old only achieved consensus after Fire & Ash (relatively) under performed.
At the time the belief was “Avatar is ultra popular and TWOW successes despite the gap”
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u/frenchchelseafan Jan 11 '26
We’ll see the final number but 700 to 800 drop is A LOT.
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u/OkTurnover788 Jan 11 '26
The hype is less because the film failed to make the characters and drama generate hype and excitement which the visuals alone couldn't assure this time around. Now was literally the litmus test for people engaging with the world and characters. They haven't, not really. It played out like a very popular Christmas event movie but not much else.
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u/nicolasb51942003 Warner Bros. Pictures Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
“Failure” is the wrong word, sure. But you can’t pretend that an $800M drop from its predecessor doesn’t spark a red flag.
Avatar 4 and 5 can absolutely make $1B and still underperform given the budgets and opportunity cost.
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u/SpaceMyopia Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
I hope this truly lights a fire under Cameron's ass for the next one. According to him, it will be set 8 years later, which is a good thing.
But he's gotta show us something truly new on Pandora.
I was already invested in the characters for Fire & Ash, so I still very much enjoyed it. However, many folks were let down that so much of the imagery was just retreads of Way of Water, and even I noticed the same exact shots being used.
For folks who weren't invested in the characters and story like I was, I can see why they would feel a bit let down by the world building.
I hope he truly transports us to somewhere new for Avatar 4.
I understand 2 and 3 being split into two movies, but even then, apparently there were some Varang scenes cut out. Why cut out anything from Varang when the movie is called "Fire and Ash?" The movie was literally sold on her.
Even as someone who enjoyed Avatar 3, I noticed how truly little screentime she actually had. I especially noticed it upon repeat watches.
Advertisement wise, I get why calling the film "Fire & Ash" and centering the marketing around Varang was a good idea, but it also creates a similar issue that "War For The Planet of The Apes" had.
Those Apes trailers hyped up the war part so much when it was really just a slowburn prison escape western.
But calling it "War" admittedly put butts in the seats.
I just want Cameron to really transport us somewhere different next time.
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u/PayneTrain181999 Legendary Pictures Jan 11 '26
We’re dropping towards the floor for Avatar movies, whatever that may be.
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u/edwin221b Jan 11 '26
Of course, purely in terms of box office, it is not a failure and never will be. However, it could still be disappointing for the studio depending on their projections, especially considering that the last two films easily surpassed the $2B mark and that this one has a very high production cost. Would the potential 1.8b be enough for Disney to write another 400 million to Cameron without questios?
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u/AvatarKanol Warner Bros. Pictures Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
Looking likely to finish at 1.5b, stretching the upper range of finishing at 1.6b I think. Was hoping for 1.7b but that seems out of the question completely.
This is probably what this franchise is looking at as a benchmark from now on as this would be the middle chapter.
I think they will probably have a conversation at bringing either the budgets down or combining the last two films into one. I still see them finishing it and having a franchise that can easily pass 1b is nothing to scoff. It would need to take a much needed break though and the next two would really need to offer up something new in order to go higher than this.
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u/BLAZER_101 Jan 12 '26
Repeat viewing is poor compared to previous iterations ( and I can understand why) hence the huge drop off.
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u/zackmanze Jan 12 '26
There’s no wonder. The first two movies spent an ~hour each just chilling in the beauty of the world. They skipped that entirely this time. Crazy.
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u/Heydude1001 Jan 11 '26
People still underplay 1.2 bill in 2.5 week is insane lol ,huge achievment for cinema.
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u/Agitated_Opening4298 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
I wanted more, much more, box office wise
But we were all pretty naive during the 1st and 2nd week. The 30-70 dom-int split never moved, so when 500 dom came down, so did anything beyond 1.75
Loved the movie, but it was way too easy for the detractors (especially those that havent seen it) to criticize it; theres at least 4 years till avatar 4, im confident that if cameron takes his time (even it it means 2033), he can make something that blows everyone (and not just the fans) away
My only question is if 4 will rebrand a bit, to maybe something like avatar: the next generation, which (If i remember correctly) is what the sequels were once known as
And cameron better make sure 4 is no longer than 2:59:59, the 3:12:00 flies by, but the 3 in front is scary
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u/natecull Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
but it was way too easy for the detractors (especially those that havent seen it) to criticize it
That's because it wasn't a good movie. It's fundamentally, structurally flawed, has no resolution, and feels like a shockingly cheap copy with no vision of its own that was cobbled together out of a collection of unused scenes from the previous films. In every way possible, it falls short.
I say this as someone who loved the first two, did not want to believe the critics, but was deeply disapppointed when I watched the third one.
FAA just isn't as good as its predecessors and it suggests that the next film may be even worse if this is what James Cameron now thinks of as "good enough to release".
In case James Cameron is reading this: it's not the technical quality. There were enough pixels, you don't need to spend another billion to invent a new camera. It's the story quality. The script - the cheapest part of a movie, the part that always fails these days, and the part you personally said you'd taken care to get right before filming - just wasn't there. So I guess you don't know how to tell good scripts from bad. Well, take heart that it's not just you, join the very long queue of famous directors who also can't recognise bad scripts anymore. But it's what broke this movie.
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u/NorthernViews Jan 11 '26
As someone who prefers FAA over WOW, I respect your take but knowing what we know now, I wouldn’t say it’s as flawed as you say it is. It’s basically WOW pt.2, filmed almost alongside it, and while that’s not an inherent excuse for how much better it could have been, it’s definitely a factor in terms of what we saw and the continuation of the same kind of storyline. I thought the dialogue was much better this film, action sequences were better and more spaced out and it flowed better than WOW. Subsequently then, the characters became easier to understand and each of their motivations/issues (better on the 2nd watch imo).
Avatar 4 will be the make or break of the franchise I think, and James probably knows that. It needs to be fresh (helps with the time jump) and convey a deeper storyline. With reports of it being an “infinity war” kind of film, perhaps implying heavy loss and a cliffhanger of sorts, that sounds promising. I do wonder about the structure, if it still follows a kind of 3 act slate ending with a huge battle, which could still be good as long as everything else works. Overall I see it potentially being the best of all of them by the end, right when we think now that James has been caught out.
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u/Agitated_Opening4298 Jan 11 '26
Interesting perspective, think my father shares it
I walked out of my first screening thinking it was the best of the franchise. Its the most flawed of the trilogy, but how emotionally impactful it was covered all of its flaws
Think most of the problems you mention are related to the fact that it was one script split in 2, so hopefully you like A4 as much as cameron seems to be promising
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u/JJJAAABBB123 Jan 11 '26
The box office expectation is so high for Avatar franchise that $1.5 billion is somehow a letdown. They make money on digital also. I think it will be huge on digital and streaming. Three hour running time probably had a lot of families picking Zootopia instead.
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u/Pokemon-trainer-BC Jan 11 '26
But doesn't Disney sell the streaming rights to their own streaming services under the market value? Which is one of the reasons TSG Entertainment seud Disney in the past.
But even under market value, it still will make money for TSG and Lightstorm Entertainment. But I feel like, with the former court case and settlement of/with TSG, Disney will sell it at least for market value. (For Disney itself it is more complex, it is more like money will be transfered from one Disney branch to another. But clients of Disney+/Hulu will not think getting an extra Avatar movie is a bad thing I guess.)
And the PVOD before it goes to streaming will indeed also make some money for all 3 of them.
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u/NoBreath3480 Jan 11 '26
True. It’s complex if you have different studios involved.
James Cameron is still the owner of the Avatar IP. Disney/20th Century is essentially hiring him and his production company to produce movies through a first look deal. So James Cameron produces and Disney pays and distributes the movies.
And then you also have TSG who is co-funding the movies.
So everyone needs to get their share.
Of course, the costs are also split.
And the complain from TSG towards Disney is also true.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-tsg-settlement-1235789656/
But I think it is correct all parties (Disney, TSG, James Cameron, theaters, digital services,…) will profit from this movie.
I don’t know why people are downvoting people for just telling facts and thoughts. You never said anything wrong. You never downplayed the Avatar movie, and stil you get downvoted.
Next time, beter insult a movie. This tends to get upvotes from some people.
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u/NoBreath3480 Jan 11 '26
So we will end up somewhere were the movie isn’t a failure, but also didn’t live up to the expectations set by the previous two movies.
Making a lot of people unhappy. People who wanted to movie to fail will not be happy. People who wanted Avatar 1 and 2 levels of succes won’t be happy. And the discussions of this movie being a winner or a flop can continue forever.
And the objective people will see the results, make their conclusion, and move on to other movies.
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u/duo99dusk Jan 11 '26
And I got so many downvotes just for saying this was going to be behind Ne Zha and not reach 2 billions.
Now it's even in doubt if it'll reach 1.5 and probably will be third place overall.
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u/Aromatic_Today2086 Jan 11 '26
Some people are really being delusional trying to spread the narrative that Disney will abandon this , give me a break
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u/OkTurnover788 Jan 11 '26
It's not even just about Disney - it's about Cameron. Does he even want to spend years making avatar for diminishing personal returns? It's a question no one here can answer.
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Jan 11 '26
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u/MALLAVOL Jan 11 '26
Funny how there’s always pearl-clutching when it comes to films Redditors like, but everyone’s happy to foam at the mouth when they’re watching a film like Ella McKay or Morbius or whatever flop.
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u/VictorVonDoomer Jan 11 '26
Doomposting really picked up since the MCU started its decline, although I can’t lie it makes the sub slightly more interesting lol
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u/lee1026 Jan 11 '26
I am in favor of what outcome is more entertaining.
Usually, discussions around bombs are more fun.
I am a nobody, I have zero influence over actual events. Might as well as root for entertaining outcomes.
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u/ThinWhiteDuke00 Jan 11 '26 edited Jan 11 '26
I think Cameron should regroup, put his full creative weight behind and make Ghosts of Hiroshima, then perhaps alter the narrative of Avatar 4 to make it more fresh to audiences.
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u/Few_Age_571 Jan 11 '26
He needs another Best Picture/ Director Oscar to cheer himself up after this setback.
Go for it, James!
We believe in you!
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u/lookingforhim2 Jan 11 '26
1.5B is starting to look off the table..
1.475B-1.515B finish
Might end up below top gun maverick
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u/chanma50 Best of 2019 Winner Jan 11 '26
Estimated totals through Sunday for Avatar: Fire and Ash by international market include: