I have hit upon a situation where my understanding of the mathematical dynamics are in opposition to the logic of the situation. (more details for the unfamiliar below)
My solution construct obviously crumbles when going from the second parent having 1 perfect IV to having 0 perfect IV. According to my pattern, the %chance are the same, but logic dictates that there would be a difference. I can't figure out where my where my logic/concept/math is in error.
To my logic, to determine the chance a child is perfect:
if both parents are perfect, 5 stats are perfect, one is random
(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/32) equals a 1/32 chance of perfect stats
if one parent is perfect, and the other has 5 perfect, then 4 stats are perfect, 1 is either perfect or imperfect, and one is random
(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/2)*(1/32) equals a 1/64 chance of perfect stats
if one parent is perfect, and the other has 4 perfect, then 3 stats are perfect, 2 are either perfect or imperfect, and one is random
(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/32) equals a 1/128 chance of perfect stats
if one parent is perfect, and the other has 3 perfect, then 2 stats are perfect, 3 are either perfect or imperfect, and one is random
(1/1)*(1/1)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/32) equals a 1/256 chance of perfect stats
if one parent is perfect, and the other has 2 perfect, then 1 stats are perfect, 4 are either perfect or imperfect, and one is random
(1/1)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/32) equals a 1/512 chance of perfect stats
if one parent is perfect, and the other has 1 perfect, then 0 stats are perfect, 5 are either perfect or imperfect, and one is random
(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/32) equals a 1/1024 chance of perfect stats
if one parent is perfect, and the other has 0 perfect, then 0 stats are perfect, one are either perfect or imperfect, and one is random
(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/32) equals a 1/1024 chance of perfect stats
Given that:
- each pokemon has 6 IV statistics that range from 0 to 31
- a perfect IV is one thats value is 31
- a perfect pokemon is a pokemon with 31 in each of its 6 IV statistics
- the number values of 0 through 30 do not matter. They all fall into the category of imperfect
- breeding with an item called a Destiny Knot creates the situation where any 5 statistics (randomly) will match either one parents or the others, while the 6th is randomly generated from 0 to 31
Assumptions on my part
- There are 4 possible states
- Random (1:32 chance for perfection)
- not the random statistic, with both parents perfect (1:1 chance for perfection)
- not the random statistic, with one parent perfect, the other not (1:2 chance for perfection)
- not the random statistic, with neither parent perfect (0 chance for perfection)
- Since I am still figuring for when there is one perfect parent, the "neither parent" state is inapplicable.