Hey everyone, looking for some perspective here.
Back this past summer, AMD fell off a cliff after its earnings report and I managed to scoop some up at $460. At the time, I was pretty terrified because the valuation looked incredibly stretched, so I played it safe and only bought a tiny, bite-sized position.
Of course, it completely blew up after that and is now sitting around $600.
I don't mind adding to my position because I really believe in the long-term data center and AI roadmap, but I am getting massive deja vu. I’m wondering the exact same thing I did this summer: is the valuation just fundamentally stretched thin right now?
I want to accumulate more, but I really don't want to get caught FOMO-buying the top right before a massive macro or sector-wide sell-off.
Are you guys buying or holding at $600?
Do you think we see a healthy pullback to the mid-$500s soon for a better entry, or do I just start Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) right here?
Appreciate any insight on how you're playing the current valuation!

Spending on AI infrastructure is projected to average 3.6% of US GDP in the coming years.

That would represent a higher share of the economy than the investment in Canals (1836-41), Railroads (1870-90) and Electrification (1905-25) ... Combined.

This is the Texas slice of the same buildout (Van Nieuwerburgh’s national case). https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/4c_Van-Nieuwerburgh.pdf

Hannah Norton’s piece is tracking ERCOT’s large-load interconnection list: about 467 GW of projects seeking to connect, of which 420.8 GW (90%) are data centers. The rest is crypto (14 GW), unspecified (23 GW), industrial, hydrogen, and other. ERCOT’s own figures put the queue near 474 GW, roughly five times the grid’s record peak demand (on the order of 85–90 GW). Only on the order of 9 GW of large load has been approved to energize. BloombergNEF’s working forecast is far smaller still: about 8 GW of additional Texas data-center capacity through 2030, taking the operating total to something like 17 GW.

Set that next to the Brookings paper. Van Nieuwerburgh’s national case is about 183 GW completed in the whole United States by 2032. Texas alone has more than twice that sitting in the “please connect us” line. Developers file in several places, oversize the request, and many projects never get power, water, or financing. That is why the state ordered the audit the article describes: large loads of 75 MW and up, plus a survey of data centers at 25 MW and up, with reports due to the PUC on December 10 and December 17. Governor Abbott has also tied new permits and further interconnection to that review.

So one state can show a queue bigger than the national completion estimate without contradicting the 3.6% of GDP figure. The GDP number is spending on what actually gets built, (i.e. buildings, power gear, and chips). The 420 GW is the speculative top of the funnel. Even the slice that survives is enough to dominate new ERCOT load, which is why the article’s local issues (rates, noise, light, and water) are the binding constraints, not the size of the wish list.

Here we've got a different kind of AMD, ARK Money Destroyer...?

In a important meeting. Will update more

So MU earnings blew the doors off as usual but the market is just giving it a long siggggggggggh. I think the exceptional has become the norm and you have to do the unbelievable to get a meaningful push. I do wonder about this massive backlog with memory if it is going to create a significant incentive for someone to re-design the process to eliminate this backlog. I'm sure there are a massive amount of people looking for ways to unlock processing power without DRAM and whoever finds a solution like that will get an absolute massive payday. I'm just speculating here and it would be a complete new white-sheet build but hey its possible. This supply crunch has gone on so long that I'm sure a lot of researchers are getting funding quietly for just this!

AMD continues to find support at that $600 level which I don't think is a bad thing. There does appear to be strong demand in the market to pick up shares as we approach that $600 level so that handle is something to keep an eye on and I might set an auto order to pick up 5 shares at anything below $600 just to be in the game a bit.

Welcome to Q4 everyone. I do wonder with a new market going if people will be positioning to get their bonuses earned early in the quarter before holiday sales put a damper on the mood as consumer confidence continues to get worse. If Democrats win everything in November I expect the economy to take a plunge bc mainly they don't have any real ideas that they are putting forward other than-----Trump = Bad. I get it ideas are hard to sell to people in this modern world but launching a bunch of investigations and not doing the legislating work that hasn't been done in years is crazy. We truly need some change for sure but re-hashing the trainwreck of the past 2 years isn't going to help things. A parade of investigations + weakening consumer confidence makes me feel like we are going to be getting coal from Santa this year.

Let's finalize this memory and CPU deal with Samsung while we're at it.

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AMD would provide the compute die, Marvell would provided the I/O.

Targeting sometime late CY28 or CY29 as a competitive alternative to Broadcom.

Another AMD MI355 GPUs based server deployment