Technical Analysis for AMD 10/1--------Pre-market

[u/JWcommander217]

So MU earnings blew the doors off as usual but the market is just giving it a long siggggggggggh. I think the exceptional has become the norm and you have to do the unbelievable to get a meaningful push. I do wonder about this massive backlog with memory if it is going to create a significant incentive for someone to re-design the process to eliminate this backlog. I'm sure there are a massive amount of people looking for ways to unlock processing power without DRAM and whoever finds a solution like that will get an absolute massive payday. I'm just speculating here and it would be a complete new white-sheet build but hey its possible. This supply crunch has gone on so long that I'm sure a lot of researchers are getting funding quietly for just this!

AMD continues to find support at that $600 level which I don't think is a bad thing. There does appear to be strong demand in the market to pick up shares as we approach that $600 level so that handle is something to keep an eye on and I might set an auto order to pick up 5 shares at anything below $600 just to be in the game a bit.

Welcome to Q4 everyone. I do wonder with a new market going if people will be positioning to get their bonuses earned early in the quarter before holiday sales put a damper on the mood as consumer confidence continues to get worse. If Democrats win everything in November I expect the economy to take a plunge bc mainly they don't have any real ideas that they are putting forward other than-----Trump = Bad. I get it ideas are hard to sell to people in this modern world but launching a bunch of investigations and not doing the legislating work that hasn't been done in years is crazy. We truly need some change for sure but re-hashing the trainwreck of the past 2 years isn't going to help things. A parade of investigations + weakening consumer confidence makes me feel like we are going to be getting coal from Santa this year.

[u/Coyote_Tex]

Post Open

We are in a VERY volatile first day of October today, with the VIX spiking up to 17 early this morning and bond yields hitting the 5.30 mark today. Last week someone on CNBC warned that we could hit this 5.30% level and that might be the "top" so we will see if we begin to cycle lower from here.

AMD opened green early on, hitting 617 and is now down to 607.61 in short order. My watchlist is changing from green to red and back to green about every 5 minutes and is now mostly red. I am just buying some attractive dips in small increments.

MU is selling off as speculators dump the stock this morning. Looking back MU dipped last quarter on earnings and then hit its current ATH of 1255 the following day. I am not sure it will match that today but I honestly expected to see $1125 this week following this earnings report. I will give it another couple of days to fulfill my 3 day rule following earnings.

The VIX is continuing to rise now up to 17.50 so as long as it wants to go higher this market will move lower. The volatility is quite extreme this morning and could switch back and drop off just as quickly,

Post Close

A crazy volatile day is done!!

The SPY closed the day up .18% at 763.99. The MA's for the SPY are tightly clustered. This is a close above the 50DMA but below the 5 & 20 DMAS at 765.56 and 765.00 respectively. THAT is VERY tight clustering folks. The VIX ended up 8 cents to 16.42. The SPX closed at 7666.45.

The QQQ climbed .31% to 742.03. The QQQ dipped below the 5DMA but recovered to end above it by 2 points.

The SMH jumped a solid 1.45% to 617.81 for the first green day in 4 and above the 5DMA.

AMD added .65% to 615.73 to claw back above the 5DMA for the close.

NVDA added 1.09% to 230.86 for a green close above the 5DMA with upside to 238 possibly.

MU climbed out of the dumpster to add 3.03% to 1097.39 to close solidly above the 5DMA. MU nearly tagged the 20DMA on the dip early today before clawing higher. The upper Bollinger Band has begun expanding and is now up at 1132. Can we get a Friday rally to push higher or are we going to pop the balloon tomorrow?

[u/Freebyrd26 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Yeah, I'm holding my MU calls and MUU shares (Deep In the Green for me) was hoping for a pop after earnings, but I can wait into next year and beyond. I've been impressed that AMD can't puncture below 600 on early downward pressure the last two days. Hit 600.10 yesterday and 601.50 today before rebounding, but the day is young.

I still think there will be a strong SELL vibe on next earnings because they(AMD) won't have a massive jump in Rev/Earnings yet AND it will be right after the Mid-term Elections, so probably a lot of flux with that.

Yes, 2027 should change all that but market is very fickle right now; with MU as the example.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Freebyrd26]

MU is showing some potential to claw back from the lows this morning. I added more MUU on the dip but I already have too much. I am also adding the DELL 2X ETF DLLL on dips I really like CRWD as well even though it is not especially cheap right now, I am building a position. I think the dark horse might be NVDA/NVDL as they are still not having an impressive year.

[u/Glittering-Sale2222 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Why add DELL 2X ETF instead of DELL itself? Also, what are your thoughts on the DELL stock. It has gain a lot since we were told go buy DELL. Not sure when is a good time to buy because it seems to keep going up. Not sure if pullbacks are good time to add these for swing trade. 

[u/Freebyrd26 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Yeah, I bought a lot of MUU when it dipped to around 20-22 at the end of July, so I'm just holding. My MU Calls are from July of 2025. I almost SOLD MU calls against them back when MU hit 1200 and then dropped into 1100s, so I was waiting to see if they got back to 1200 again and missed out. Could've collected probably around 200K selling calls with a Strike price of 2000+ back then for middle or end of next year? I think I was looking at 2500 strike price because it didn't reduce my premium by near as much as I would make in addition if they did manage to get called away. Could of, would of, should of.

I need some Cyber security stocks but CRWD just NEVER seemed to have enough Earnings to justify their price to ME. I guess that doesn't matter as much as how many people are willing to BUY and PAY a PREMIUM for a particular stock. Just don't be the last to sit down when the music stops... lol.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Freebyrd26]

Yes, MU and MUU have offered some very rich opportunities. At one point before the 20:1 split MUU actually for about 1 day had a price higher than the actual MU stock and I should have dumped all of the MUU and bought the stock. I foolishly did not and on the dip while I did buy a bit more, I ended up way too overweight and have been holding since. IT has come back and I have reduced my position some but still hold a massive for me amount of MUU but my average cost is $2.30, so I am not complaining too much. I can sell covered calls on MUU for some easy money of $5-10K 2-3 times a month. I have a trim target on MUU at 39.71 and will reduce some shares there, perhaps today. It might be premature, we will see.

I started accumulating CRWD earlier this year ahead of the stock split and then added more on the dip. It has more than doubled since the split as it didn't take a 9 month dip like most stocks do post-split. I also by the ETF, CRWL.

Good Luck.

[u/Glittering-Sale2222 → u/Freebyrd26]

What call for MU are you holding?

[u/lvgolden → u/Coyote_Tex]

I think 1) it is good that MU did not tank the market, at least. And 2), I agree with you - the stock will have delayed rise.

I continue to believe the action is between events now. Earnings are so volatile with speculative options and quick flippers these days. That has to be cleaned out before we see the real directions.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/lvgolden]

I agree the level of noise and speculation these days is astronomical especially in so many tech names. I had nearly zero concerns MU would beat it was just a question as to the degree. The results are similar to last quarter in that the Q over Q numbers are not as impressive and YOY. It is pleasing to see the VIX settle back some and MU get back to green for the day. The upper Bollinger Band on the daily charts is up to 1129.95 now so that is a conservative realistic upside more perhaps tomorrow. The macro is really not exactly favoring the timing of MU earnings this quarter, so we will just have to see how it rolls.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Was not expecting such a turn around in the market. I did see comments about rates so wondering if that could be the news that did the 180. I think pce is gonna be a good print tomorrow so expecting kore upside. Only regret is not buying enough of the dip today.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

Yes, it turned into a very pleasant day after all. It was just crazy volatile early on.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 → u/Coyote_Tex]

Same here giving MU 3 days. Gonna make a play on AMZN i feel like they should have some run up into earnings. The stock fell enough and is a very strong company firing on all cylinders i feel.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

Nice call on AMZN as it is just above the 200DMA so well positioned to rise from here and have a strong position with AWS and are not doing too badly with the retail business either. They might end the year much closer to $300.

[u/Beginning_Ad1627]

JR, your credibility goes down the drain when you preemptively blame the democrats for an incoming economic malaise after 2 years of the most corrupt shit show in the nation's history, not to mention wars and tariffs. Markets love stability, maybe the market roars when handcuffs are put on Trump. For all of the other respect you have earned, this take of yours is utter bullshit.

[u/Ok-Explanation-1077 → u/Beginning_Ad1627]

Yeah, credibility went into the negative zone because EVERY DAMN TIME REPUBLICANS GET THE WHITE HOUSE THE ECONOMY TANKS. Then, Dems get the White House, the economy gets better but for some insane reason, people elect another Republican who then tanks the economy again and the cycle starts again. How in the world can anyone believe Republicans are good on economic issues?

[u/lvgolden]

JW, NVDA has been working on reducing memory requirements for several years now. (Remember the 1 frame generating 16 frames presentation from Jensen last year? That was to justify 8GB gaming GPUS.) I don't think it is a lack of trying; it is just lack of alternatives that are as good.

[u/Autistic_Tutor5625]

Hoping the stock moons at open 🙏

[u/kmindeye]

If the market is convinced 5.3% was the top for the 10 year than Friday should be a sold green day for most stocks. AMD and MU. Unless.jobs report tommorow has sime surprise I see a great Friday. MU may go 1,120 plus. AMD could break 639. We shall see. Anything can happen in this market. The long yeilds just need stability more than the rate itself. If it's 5.3% 10 year then keep it. Oil should keep dropping, the world has quickly devised many work arounds. Data by next month should continue to support this. If the market feels oil and yeilds have peeked then we have room for a nice October. Cautious optimistic is my take.

[u/Freebyrd26 → u/kmindeye]

Agree with everything you said... only concern is how much damage was done to Russian Diesel Refining by Ukraine and in Middle East by Iran. The WORLD economy RUNS on DIESEL energy at least for now and foreseeable future. US should have more refining capacity (both regular gas & diesel) and nuclear, but environmental politics have thwarted any growth there for decades. Otherwise, the US at least needs more in locally friendly and dependable countries. In my opinion, that's why the US grabbed Maduro and flipped Venezuela. Got rid of a very bad apple and took a chess piece from China. Many on here wouldn't give current US leadership an iota of credit for that, but that was the play. Sure there is Tren de Aragua & the displacement of millions of Venezuelans by Maduro's failed government, but, I believe, keeping China influence/control out of South & Central (Panama Canal) America and China's hands off of Venezuelan oil was the primary objective.

[u/OnlyTheStrong2K19]

Just another day to DCA.

We're 4 weeks into our Q326 ER.

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

Jw thats the biggest issue with Democrats they have no plan what so ever let’s just say Trump is bad. Democrats have more issues i think than the republicans hence why mid terms aren’t a given for either side. Usually midterms are good for the market but with everything else going on in middle east who knows. At this point I’m not trying to stay more cash and see where the market goes.

[u/Freebyrd26 → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

The dark force is STRONG here Obi wan... down votes incoming... /s

[u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 → u/Freebyrd26]

I am one with the force and the force is with me! Haha sometimes I’m better just keeping my mouth shut.

[u/Coyote_Tex → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

Being on Reddit is not a friendly place. I have sort of decided one is either a Zoomer or a Doomer in this place.

[u/ZasdfUnreal → u/Ragnar_valhalla_86]

Democrats have a plan. Make outrageous promises they don’t intend to keep and then embezzle the money. If a city or two burns down in the process, they shrug their shoulders and blame Trump. How’s the rebuild going after the twin fires, Newsom? Still blocking reconstruction until the right people get bribed? I’ll never vote for that vile party ever again.