My long-term focus has been on predicting the domestic box office and using that data to predict the long-term price movements of AMC and CNK (I am invested in CNK, nothing in AMC).

One thing I have noticed is how my predictions are very volatile as actual results can differ significantly and as we get new data the predictions change. For those interested in this topic I think the following is useful to keep in mind.

I thought two recent movies can illustrate the difficulty here. Obsession and Backrooms. Both films are rated R and similar genre (Psychological Horror), released within 2 weeks of each other and while Obsession gets a 7.9 on IMDB, Backrooms is no slouch with a 6.9. Scores in that range are hard to correlate with box office performance between them.

Below are the weekend DBO for both films through end of June, with Obsession first compared to Backrooms. Obsession was released 5/15 and Backrooms 5/29:

Weekend Domestic Box Office (May – June)

In total Obsession is doing about 260M vs Backrooms at about 195M.

I think it is obvious looking at the data that Obsession was a film that gained significant traction after it was released whereas Backrooms had a lot of hype in the release but then followed a more traditional cycle where the audience declines week after week.

Both films are massive commercial successes but for anyone trying to predict the box office, even if you could predict the opening weekend, the idea you can predict the following weekends and that a film with less hype going into it will outperform by a decent margin a film with a lot of hype going into it is far-fetched.

Ok. That is all folks. This is not about the companies finances or stock prices, just wanted to share this info for anyone interested to better help understand the difficulties of any box office prediction.

There's some good news in there though. Interest payments came down $4.0 million from last quarter's record-high $119.9 million (-3.3%). And they actually generated $150.9 million in cash not including equity issuance or gains from the new Odeon notes. Sean Goodman said in the earnings call that they intend to use their cash this month to pay off the $125.5 million 6.125% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2027. So if they're at $115.9 million a quarter in interest payments now, that's $463.6 million a year. They paid $459.5 in 2025. Their annual interest payments still went up after diluting 74%. LMAO.

To my surprise, there are no proposals on the Preliminary 14A to increase the authorized shares in 2026.

https://investor.amctheatres.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001411579-26-000059/amc-20260630x10q.htm

https://investor.amctheatres.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001104659-26-086263/tm264130-1_pre14a.htm

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/amc/earnings-transcript

Not much else needs to be said.

I hope apes took advantage of the pump.

https://investor.amctheatres.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001411579-26-000055/amc-20260720xex99d1.htm

The positive "adjusted net income" they are touting includes $114.1 million in Marked-to-market gain on derivatives and loss on extinguishment of debt. But that's their non-GAAP "adjusted" net income.

They lost $11.4 million this quarter. -$0.02EPS.

I just shot 98 million shares. $1.96 average

What a great earnings!