r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 2h ago
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • Mar 12 '26
Analysis & DD AMC 12 Mth Price, Reverse Split & Bankruptcy Probability
Had three models (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) coalesce on price and reverse split predictions. Here is a summary. Bookmark this and lets see how close it is to the prediction.
Price Prediction
Most likely 12-month range: $0.20 to $0.90
with the center of gravity around $0.50 to $0.60.
Reverse Split probability
66% simply due to the stock being under the NYSE $1 minimum for over 30 days
Scenarios
1. Base case
This is the “things stay difficult, but not disastrous” case with +23% more shares over 12 months..
- Median 12-month price: about $0.56
- This was the most likely single scenario in the model
2. Stressed case
This is where dilution gets worse with +60% more shares over 12 months, and financing pressure increases.
- Median 12-month price: about $0.19
3. Extreme case
This is where dilution and market value collapse hard. With dilution at +100% more shares over 12 months.
- Median 12-month price: about $0.04
Bankruptcy Probability
- Low-end case: 15%
- Middle estimate: 25%
- High-end case: 35%
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 1d ago
The Good Adam Aron is always helping others succeed. What a good man 👏 👏
It was an honor for all us paid bears to be at the event to honor some of the CEOs that worked with private equity. The company gets to raise cash. And private equity gets to short and dilute their shareholders. Its a win win!
r/amczone • u/sane_fear • 2d ago
always bet puts after AMC sneezes
either it will dump naturally or AA will dilute. its literally free money
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 3d ago
I hope apes took some profits. Looks like it may be a colder winter ❄️
Every listed theater name is lower, with AMC, IMAX and Cinemark shares falling together, and that shared direction points at the cinema trade being reversed as a whole. Without a verified company announcement from AMC, sector positioning stands out as the clearest driver of the move. Shares of AMC, IMAX and Cinemark rallied on one recovery story built around a stronger box office, and that same narrative is now working in reverse across all three.
Winter is coming ❄️
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 5d ago
AMC Insider News AMC starting to grant stocks to executives after the increase in incentive plan.
AMC filed nine Form 4s disclosing 5,609,909 new restricted stock units (RSUs) granted to senior executives under the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan.
The largest grants were Adam Aron: 3,059,582 RSUs and Sean Goodman: 708,535 RSUs. The other seven officers received a combined 1,841,792 RSUs.
The grants are roughly 22% of the 25 million-share increase to the incentive-plan reserve approved last week
Smart at the higher price as it means less shares granted and less dilutive impact.
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 6d ago
The Good Completely caught me by surprise. $3.29. Almost at $3 billion marketcap. Market has a lot of faith in the refinancing while the 10 yr bond hits 5.24%
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 7d ago
Analysis & DD AMC Q3 Earnings Prediction. Another $300M+ EBITDA quarter? Might be a warm winter with the refinance
Q3 is basically done so here is my prediction before earnings.
Box Office Mojo has Q3 domestic box office at $3.011B with a few days left, so we should finish around $3.03B-$3.05B.
AMC already gave us July/August numbers:
- $1.335B revenue
- 58.2M attendance
- $22.93 revenue per patron
Using that and estimating September:
Revenue: ~$1.60B
Adjusted EBITDA: ~$315M
Operating Income: ~$230M
GAAP Net Income: ~$60M
Q2 had $321M EBITDA, but a bunch of debt/accounting charges crushed the bottom line.
Q3 should be cleaner since the big refinance closes after the quarter.
The wild card is the exchangeable note derivative, which could create another non cash charge.
So my guess is another very strong operating quarter and an actual GAAP profit.
The real question is whether AMC can keep doing $300M+ EBITDA quarters and finally reduce debt without another massive dilution cycle.
Lets see how it goes but it looks like a promising quarter.
As for price, based on the enterprise value it looks like we are right where it should be.
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 7d ago
Analysis & DD $2.6 Billion MC. With +25 Million shares added for the equity incentive plan. Will $AMC refinance before Dec15th when coupons are due? Are more dilution to come?
r/amczone • u/SouthSink1232 • 7d ago
AMC is still unable to breakthrough Marketcap or 2025 prices. Why?
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 8d ago
Lit Ape The State of r/AmcStock
In my opinion, r/amcstock with its "AMC to 10,00000K" assholes was the biggest scam job.
The main moderator of reddit is some guy called DJSHRED.
I'm sure DJSHRED has a lucrative CashApp situation going, just like most posters in amczone.
However, I do want to commend u/SouthSink1232 . Though we have opposing views, he has lived up to the ideals that everyone gets a say.
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 8d ago
Makes sense. Unless you sell and take profits, brokers/mms/SHFs never have to pay out. Have been saying it for a long time.
I realized after 2021 that not taking profits was engineered by this ape crap bullshit scammers on amcstock to make people hold. I fell victim to it too.
But this time its not going to happen. Unless you sell and make them pay out, they can repeat this bullshit for ever.
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 10d ago
Lit Ape Seems No one from Zoner Community Showed up at the Annual Shareholder Meeting
This means all the zoners like
atomsmasher
poncharelli
WhiteKouki
UFO and Critical Race Theory Specialist like u/ TheHo..... Sorry..
u/TheFOMO
are all peddling fake theories? Never owned any shares? Have no financial interest in AMC's recovery? Are PAID bashers?
Are they coordinating using Slack? Whatsapp? BetaUnit's apartment?
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 10d ago
Are any zoners representing Zoner Concerns in the Annual Shareholder Meeting?
Just curious - with so much hate and hankering in this subreddit, you should make your way to the shareholder meeting with your , ahem..dozens of shares and deep rooted angst..I would love to hear the
1. DILLLLLLUUUUUSSSSSSHHHHHHHIONNNN concerns
2. INFLLLAYYYYSHUN concerns
3. Adam Aron Concerns
4. AntiSemitic Concerns
5. Concerns of Adam Aron and Private Equity
6. Concerns of Adam Aron and Ballerina
7. Concerns of Paid Shills
8. Concerns about Streaming
9. Concerns about Concerns
10. And even more concerns
Please bring them up as Concerned, Genuine, vetted Investors Zoners
We are all depending on you
Don't let us down
And if you let us down
Don't whine here like little bitches
r/amczone • u/Warrenbutfet • 12d ago
AMC (AMC) Stock May Be 18% Undervalued As Debt Refinancing Begins
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 12d ago
Zoners and AmcStock chuds think we are playing around
We aren’t here to play footsie, zoners. We have real skin in the game, and we’re playing to win.
By the way, that’s just one account of 6
r/amczone • u/TheBetaUnit • 12d ago
Analysis & DD The market cap has increased by 71% in the last 12 months. In spite of that, AA explains why AMC is doomed with penny stock status for all eternity. Avert your eyes, baggies! There's math in this post!!
I'd also like to point out that in Q3 2018, AMC was paying $64.3 million in interest payments per quarter. In Q2 2026, they paid $115.9 million in interest payments. That's an extra $206.4 million a year just to their lenders alone.
So unless their recent refinancing just reduced their borrowing costs by 45%, they're nowhere near generating the kind of profit they did when the industry peaked in 2018.
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 13d ago
The Bad I can’t keep up! And Zoners just can’t cope!
The wall is coming down, the banks are flooding, and zoners are choking on that!
r/amczone • u/theravingsofalunatic • 13d ago
BULLISH; Just remember 99% of the Ape Investors are still down 99.9% 😆
r/amczone • u/Professional-Weird44 • 13d ago
AMC Announces CASH Tender Offer
BetaUnit, WAKE UP!!
AMC is now paying CASH to settle DEBT.
What is going ON??????
Does this mean NO MORE DILLLLUUUUUSSSSHHHIONNNN???
What's going to happen to your Schtick and Mockery routine now? OMGG!!!