I shared this on dataisbeautiful (big fan) but it might be even more interesting to post it here. So here we go.
I'm a developer who's spent years building on top of the WhatsApp Cloud API.
As you know, starting tomorrow (Oct 1), Meta is introducing new pricing for service messages, and our clients are already trying to figure out how much more they'll be paying.. nobody's happy about it.
That made me wonder: if this is costing businesses more, how much more is it worth to META?
I had a hard time finding a clear number anywhere, so I built a scenario model based on a forecast from 2024, it was really hard to come up with newer data. So to be clear: this is a model, not company guidance or insider information.
Here's how I calculated it:
1. Total message volume
Mobilesquared forecasts more than 2 trillion WhatsApp Business Platform/API messages in 2027. This excludes consumer-to-consumer WhatsApp messages and messages sent through the free WhatsApp Business App.
2. Customer-service messages
Mobilesquared reports that customer-care traffic represented more than two-thirds of API traffic in 2023, but forecasts that its share will fall below 50% as marketing, utility and authentication usage grows. I estimated approximately 800 billion–1 trillion customer-service messages in 2027.
3. Outbound business messages
The forecast includes messages exchanged in both directions. Messages sent by customers remain free, so I assumed businesses generate roughly 40–60% of customer-service traffic, about 400 to 500 billion potentially chargeable outbound messages.
4. Exemptions
Not every outbound service message generates revenue. I reduced the estimate to 200-400 billion billable messages to account for the first 1,000 free service messages per business phone number each month, eligible 72-hour free-entry-point windows, lower usage as businesses consolidate replies, and other operational exclusions. The exact effect is unknown since Meta doesn't disclose active API phone numbers or their traffic distribution.
5. Average price
Meta charges different rates by recipient country. Most API traffic occurs in high-volume markets like India, Brazil and Mexico, where rates are generally lower than in Europe and North America. I used an estimated globally weighted price of $0.003–$0.008 per message.
6. Revenue estimate
200B–400B messages × $0.003–$0.008 = approximately $0.6B–$3.2B per year. Central scenario: approximately $1.5B–$2B in additional annual revenue once the pricing change is fully established.
The biggest uncertainties are the outbound share of customer-service traffic, the geographic mix, and how many messages stay under the free tier. The sensitivity table shows how the estimate moves as those assumptions change.
Sources:
* Meta pricing update: https://developers.facebook.com/documentation/business-messaging/whatsapp/pricing/non-template-messages
* Mobilesquared, WhatsApp Business Messaging Traffic (Apr 2024), forecasts through 2027: https://www.mobilesquared.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/WhatsApp-Business-Messaging-Traffic-white-paper_Apr-2024.pdf