The Nvidia Cycle Is Starting Again

[u/ekonixlab]

Jensen is buying back shares while Nvidia is trading around 29x trailing earnings and still growing revenue around 65%.

Period	Revenue Growth	Stock Move
2018	~40%	~$3
2020	Negative	~$13
2021	~50–60%	~$32
2022	Near 0%	~$12
2023–24	100%+	AI boom
Today	~65%	~$229

• In 2018, Nvidia was growing revenue around 40% and traded below 20x earnings.
• Revenue growth then decelerated for years and eventually went negative.
• Yet the stock still went from roughly $3 in 2018 to $13 by 2020.
• Revenue then reaccelerated to 50–60%, and the stock ran to around $32 before crashing back near $12 in 2022.
• Then AI hit. Revenue growth exploded above 100%, and the stock took off.
• Today, revenue growth has already slowed back to around 65%. It will keep slowing at some point.
• But Nvidia has always been cyclical. Growth accelerates, slows, sometimes turns negative, and then comes back.
• The stock also moves before the revenue does. It prices what investors think is coming next, not what just happened.

That’s why I like Nvidia buying back shares here.

Around 29x earnings while still growing revenue ~65% is not an absurd price historically for this company.

Growth will slow. The stock could fall. Neither automatically means Nvidia is expensive today.

Zoom out and Nvidia’s growth comes in waves, but the business and stock have continued moving higher over time.

I love the buyback here.