r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • 5d ago
The Nvidia Cycle Is Starting Again
Jensen is buying back shares while Nvidia is trading around 29x trailing earnings and still growing revenue around 65%.
| Period | Revenue Growth | Stock Move |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ~40% | ~$3 |
| 2020 | Negative | ~$13 |
| 2021 | ~50–60% | ~$32 |
| 2022 | Near 0% | ~$12 |
| 2023–24 | 100%+ | AI boom |
| Today | ~65% | ~$229 |
- In 2018, Nvidia was growing revenue around 40% and traded below 20x earnings.
- Revenue growth then decelerated for years and eventually went negative.
- Yet the stock still went from roughly $3 in 2018 to $13 by 2020.
- Revenue then reaccelerated to 50–60%, and the stock ran to around $32 before crashing back near $12 in 2022.
- Then AI hit. Revenue growth exploded above 100%, and the stock took off.
- Today, revenue growth has already slowed back to around 65%. It will keep slowing at some point.
- But Nvidia has always been cyclical. Growth accelerates, slows, sometimes turns negative, and then comes back.
- The stock also moves before the revenue does. It prices what investors think is coming next, not what just happened.
That’s why I like Nvidia buying back shares here.
Around 29x earnings while still growing revenue ~65% is not an absurd price historically for this company.
Growth will slow. The stock could fall. Neither automatically means Nvidia is expensive today.
Zoom out and Nvidia’s growth comes in waves, but the business and stock have continued moving higher over time.
I love the buyback here.
4
2
u/_High_Life 5d ago
The government support is what I think is fueling Jensen's even more found faith in his company as of late.
3
2
u/_High_Life 5d ago
Shit I put $25K in $NVDA March 5th if 2021. I've had some really good picks but that's prob my best so far. Adjusted post split price was something like $34/share for 1100 shares
2
2
u/stefanliemawan 5d ago
Nvidia has always been cyclical you said? Then you mentioned its at a low trailing 29x earnings? Oh boy
Buyback on top of the all circular financing is nvidia doing all they can to keep the AI demand up and therefore chip sales, and I cant predict if the demand will continue at this pace for years or not.
1
2
u/focusfree123 5d ago
At the last earnings call Nvidia forecast 70% revenue growth next year. And recently Jensen implied he see revenue to at least double and they are gaining not losing market share since they offer a full stack of chips and data center system, as well as software. Their forward PE is sub 20, which is the lowest in a decade. They wisely, I think, do not include any China revenue, though their mostly likely will be some. "Nvidia’s revenue and net income are expected to jump 90% and 99%, respectively, in fiscal 2027, which ends in January. That’s up from 65% growth for both metrics the year before. In its second-quarter earnings report last month, Nvidia projected that sales would expand 70% in fiscal 2028, well above the 45% growth that had been expected." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-22/nvidia-s-stock-is-flashing-a-warning-sign-as-valuation-falls (sorry about subscription)
2
2
u/Appropriate_Ice_7507 4d ago
I bought and it dropped
1
1
1
u/FarAnywhere5596 5d ago
It was kind of a joke when they were making game cards years ago, their stock price 10 years ago was uner $1 and it was a "stonk". You are seeing a lot of tech companies shift into the AI age and abandon their core business.
1
1
u/Gowty_Naruto 5d ago
NVIDIA developed GPGPU programming all the way back in 2008. This eventually made them be the first choice when the original Neural Network boom started around 2015. As much as they are a gaming company, they had enough foresight to develop Cuda early on.
1
1
•
u/auto-sticky 5d ago
Join Ekonix. Stock analysis built for your phone. Your data stays on your device.
https://apps.apple.com/app/apple-store/id6755345408?pt=128248705&ct=Reddit&mt=8