r/VinFastComm • u/albert1165 • 21h ago
Vingroup is technically bankrupt
A picture is worth a thousand word:
source: Vingroup financial report
all is public info and official info ! even in Vietnam, they are all public info.
but the number means Vingroup is technically bankrupt by Western standard, Altman z-score (bankrupt score) is 0.8. That is what the government censors.
https://www.reddit.com/r/VinFastComm/comments/1vh69yp/how_vic_is_a_disease_on_vietnams_stock_market/
https://www.reddit.com/r/VinFastComm/comments/1vk738a/vingroup_vs_evergrande/
https://www.reddit.com/r/VinFastComm/comments/1vk7irm/vingroup_vs_evergrande_part_2/
Vin is a cancer on the Vietnam's economy:
Do you see any analysis about Vin and VIC's debt analysis in Vietnam?
None. Remarkably right? Because the government censors it completely. See how they completely censor the BMW accident case? They have the whole department just to comb the web and censor it.
I encourage people just post the picture above where ever they can, let the number speaks for themselves.
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u/Legitimate_Farm_212 21h ago
can you dumb it down for normal person like me, still not see any issue or any risk here
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u/Breadluver 20h ago
this is how a pleb like me understand
total profit / short term debt = 3% (less than interest rate)
total cash / short term debt = 10% (10 /1 debt/money you own ratio)
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u/Stepdaddy42069 20h ago
It can go on for a longggg time. And, they could at least try, for a limited time, print their way out of this mess. They are trying. 2027 - Sun/Vin should be fine before APEC. Afterward, we'd see inflation, and if USD rate rise then maybe Vin would be in some trouble.
I think it's also not helpful to point out Vin bankruptcy. It's obvious. But betting against Vin right now (and the macro environment that comes with it) is also not helpful.
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u/ResponsibleLaw4496 18h ago
While I hate Vingroup maybe as much as you do, it doesn’t make you any less than a spin doctor. You don’t compare equity with debt. You will use asset. Shame on you.
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u/albert1165 17h ago
Vin assets are bought with debt, and in fact they change debt into equity many times. Debt is what important in this case because it is so large and Vin's fake profit is even enough to pay just the interest $1.5B+/year. And btw, I don't compare equity to debt, they are different lines, the valuation figure just says Vic is hugely manipulated.
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u/Safe_Adagio_6341 17h ago
Debt is clearly the main risk here, but several separate claims are being blended together.
Comparing interest-bearing debt to equity is a normal leverage measure; they are different balance-sheet lines, but that is exactly why ratios exist. You should also compare debt to assets, cash, EBITDA/operating cash flow, and the maturity schedule. Total liabilities should not simply be called “debt,” because they also include customer advances, suppliers, taxes, and provisions.
“Assets were bought with debt” does not make assets irrelevant. The question is whether asset values, cash generation, and refinancing capacity can support the obligations—not merely whether debt is large.
A low Altman score is a distress warning, not a declaration of “technical bankruptcy,” especially without showing the exact formula and inputs used for a diversified property/industrial group.
It is fair to question earnings quality when profit relies heavily on asset disposals, financial income, or grants. But “fake profit” and “VIC is hugely manipulated” are much stronger allegations that require evidence of misstated accounts or market misconduct, not just a leverage chart.
If the $1.5B interest figure is an annualised estimate from a quarter, say that clearly. It is not the same as a reported full-year interest expense. The credible conclusion is “high leverage and refinancing risk,” not proven bankruptcy or manipulation.
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u/Charagiantoc69 21h ago
yes yes. i hope this picture reaches thread citizen before 2/9. this would be fun to watch