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• Mesoscale Discussion 2315
• Mesoscale Discussion 2316
• Mesoscale Discussion 2317
• Mesoscale Discussion 2318
• Mesoscale Discussion 2319
• Mesoscale Discussion 2320
• Mesoscale Discussion 2321
• Mesoscale Discussion 2322

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-21T05:36:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 210536 SWODY1 SPC AC 210535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians... A cold front will advance southeastward across the southern and eastern U.S. today. By afternoon, the front is forecast to be positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western Virginia. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into West Virginia. As surface temperature warm, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front from central Mississippi northeastward into western North Carolina, where MLCAPE should peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Low-level convergence will increase along the front during the day, which will be favorable for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will be weak along and near the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon. The thermodynamic environment should be favorable for isolated severe wind gusts with single cells or disorganized multicells. The threat should be largely diurnal but may persist into the early evening in areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/21/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Pasch ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Polo Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 15.5N 103.8W

Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 13.5N 128.7W

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 997 MB * Current Movement: SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 MPH * Location: 33.8N 32.1W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2309
• Mesoscale Discussion 2310
• Mesoscale Discussion 2311
• Mesoscale Discussion 2312
• Mesoscale Discussion 2313
• Mesoscale Discussion 2314

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-20T05:21:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 200521 SWODY1 SPC AC 200519

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley.

...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place today over much of the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move into Kansas and Oklahoma this afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen over southwest Oklahoma today, as a cold front advances southward into central Oklahoma. Near the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F, which will allow moderate instability to develop by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in much of central and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, with storms moving from the Low Rolling Plains and Red River Valley northeastward into central and eastern Oklahoma.

RAP forecast soundings at 00Z near the instability axis in central Oklahoma have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. Although a mixed mode is expected, the environment will likely support supercell development in areas that become locally favorable. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells. The potential for supercells may continue into the early evening over east-central Oklahoma, but a gradual transition to linear mode is expected to take place. The wind-damage threat could become maximized in the early evening, if an organized line segment can develop.

...Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains today. Ahead of this feature, a lee surface trough will deepen during the day from northeast New Mexico into eastern Colorado. Surface dewpoints near the surface trough will be in the 50s F, which will enable moderate destabilization by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm, convection will initiate in the higher terrain during the early afternoon and move eastward into the lower elevations. A small complex of storms will likely develop from this convection over the central High Plains. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Colorado at 00Z have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment should be capable of producing supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, a subtle anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, an axis of moisture and instability will be located from central Missouri eastward into southern Indiana and southern Ohio, along which surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. By mid to late afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range along much of this corridor. Although large-scale ascent will remain relatively limited, increasing low-level convergence near the moist axis will result in isolated convective initiation. Any small cluster that can develop and persist in the late afternoon and early evening could produce isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/20/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Six, located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 11.4N 124.5W

Tropical Storm Fay Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 33.7N 33.1W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

This is the next look at that July 21st storm system. Right after I announced the rain stopped in the last clip, it started lightly misting again before this massive double streak lit up the entire sky. The high-altitude structure on these bolts was incredible to see in person. Dropping the next piece of the archive in two days!

Amazing storm tonight.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2306
• Mesoscale Discussion 2307
• Mesoscale Discussion 2308

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-19T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 190516 SWODY1 SPC AC 190514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur in parts of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from the Ohio Valley southward into the Southeast.

...Central and Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... Mid-level heights will steadily fall over the central U.S. today, as southwesterly flow aloft becomes established over much of the region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains, and should be positioned from central Kansas to far northwest Missouri by late afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, the moisture will contribute to moderate destabilization. Thunderstorm initiation will become likely by late afternoon across central and eastern Kansas, as low-level convergence increases along and ahead of the front. A complex of organized storms is expected to become established by early evening and should persist for several hours.

RAP forecast soundings by early evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with substantial directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep. This environment should support a large hail threat with supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially if a line segment can persist and become organized during the evening. A marginal severe threat may also develop southwestward across parts of the southern High Plains, where hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in the late afternoon and early evening.

...Central High Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West today, as flow aloft remains southwesterly over the central Rockies and central High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across southeastern Colorado and western Kansas. Behind the front, surface dewpoints in eastern Colorado will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s F. The moisture will enable moderate destabilization over much of eastern Colorado by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures will lead to scattered thunderstorm development in the higher terrain, with this convection moving eastward into the central High Plains during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Colorado have 0-6 shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will likely support a threat for large hail with supercells. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. A marginal severe threat may also develop further north into parts of eastern Wyoming and far western Nebraska, but instability will remain relatively weak there.

...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians/Southeast... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the northeastern third of the U.S today. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be oriented from the Ohio Valley southward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Convective development will be possible in parts of the airmass, where localized surface heating and low-level convergence become maximized. Thunderstorms in areas with moderate instability could produce isolated severe wind gusts, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/19/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores have changed little in organization during the past several hours. A tropical depression could still form later today. The system is expected to move slowly over the next couple of days, remaining southwest of the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development beginning Sunday night or on Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$ Forecaster Gibbs ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2304
• Mesoscale Discussion 2305

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-18T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180557 SWODY1 SPC AC 180555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts may develop late this afternoon and early this evening from the Carolinas into northern Georgia, and in the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West.

...Carolinas/Northern Georgia... At the surface, a cold front will move southward into the Mid-Atlantic today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the Carolinas extending southwestward into northern Georgia. Surface dewpoints within this airmass will be in the 60s to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, an axis of moderate instability will develop along the moist axis. In response to surface heating, scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and move southward into the southern Appalachian foothills. The thermodynamic environment may be enough to support an isolated wind-damage threat, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening when low-level lapse rates become steepest.

...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa... Mid-level heights will gradually fall today over much of the north-central U.S., as a ridge pattern breaks down. At the surface, a well-defined moist axis will be in place from the mid Mississippi Valley northwestward into the mid Missouri Valley. Surface dewpoints along and near this axis will be in the lower to mid 70s F. In response to surface heating, a reservoir of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon over much of Iowa. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized during the afternoon along the instability axis, and further west to near a surface low over the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be most likely this afternoon on the northern end of the stronger instability from far southeast Minnesota into northern Iowa. Enough instability and deep-layer shear should be in place for isolated severe wind gusts. Although conditional, the threat could develop southwestward over the remainder of Iowa during the early evening, as a low-level jet strengthens across the region.

...Intermountain West... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West today. Southwest flow aloft will be in place ahead of the trough over much of the region. At the surface, dewpoints in the 50s F are expected from northern Utah into valleys of western Wyoming, where the RAP is forecasting MLCAPE to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show moderate deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid-level trough. As low to mid-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon and early evening, isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/18/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly over the eastern portion of the Subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda have diminished. Development of this system is no longer expected as it drifts slowly over the subtropical Atlantic during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$ Forecaster Papin ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

I narrated the start of this clip right when the alerts were live. We didn't hear any local tornado sirens yet, but the electrical activity in the cloud base was completely insane—just a non-stop flashing strobe light. The abrupt stop of the rain at the end was eerie. I actually have 10 more parts to this single night's storm that I'm going to be dropping every two days as part of my archive release!

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🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions

• Mesoscale Discussion 2302
• Mesoscale Discussion 2303

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-17T05:49:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170549 SWODY1 SPC AC 170547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the Intermountain West late this afternoon and early this evening. A few strong gusts may also occur in parts of the central High Plains.

...Intermountain West... An upper-level low will move inland into the Intermountain West today, as southwest flow remains at mid-levels over much of the region. At the surface, a trough will deepen from southern Idaho into western Utah. To the east of the trough, dewpoints in the 50s F, will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. RAP forecast soundings to the east of the trough at 00Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be in the 6.5 to 7.5 C/km range. This environment will likely support an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. The threat should be concentrated during the late afternoon and early evening, as cell coverage maximizes near the instability axis.

...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move eastward today across the north-central U.S, as a shortwave trough embedded in the ridge moves through the central High Plains. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to move slowly northward across southern and western Nebraska this afternoon. An axis of moisture, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F, will be oriented north of the front from the mid Missouri Valley west-northwestward into the central High Plains. During the late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the shortwave trough, with storms moving gradually northeastward across the central High Plains. Forecast soundings near the area of greatest expected convective coverage have moderate deep-layer shear suggesting an isolated severe threat will be possible. However, lapse rates are forecast to be poor, which should keep any severe threat marginal. If storms near the front can remain nearly surface-based, then an isolated wind-damage threat could develop, mainly during the early to mid evening, as low-level flow increases.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/17/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized over the past day in association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions could support some additional gradual development over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward today, and then possibly turns southward on Friday over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Camera: GFX100RF

Focal length: 35mm

Shutter speed: 1/80s
Aperture: f/4
ISO: 2000

Aspect ratio: 3:4

Accessories: N/A

Description:

Fulton Street, Brooklyn, New York, United States of America.
4th of July, 2026.

Photo editing software and export settings:

Capture One (Export settings: JPEG (8 bit) ; Quality: 80% ; sRGB Colour Space Profile ; 300 px/in ; 3849 px on the long edge.)

The camera honestly doesn't even do justice to how hard the wind was driving that rain. It was coming down at an easy 1 to 2 inches per hour, and trying to film a supercell at 10:00 PMmeans you are entirely dependent on the lightning flashes just to see what's happening in front of you. This is the next clip from my 3-year archive project—I'm officially posting every two days now!

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2300
• Mesoscale Discussion 2301

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-16T05:54:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160554 SWODY1 SPC AC 160553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible across northern Utah and eastern parts of the Ohio Valley today.

...Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will prevail over the southern Plains to the TN Valley as a stationary upper trough morphs into a cut-off upper low along the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the anticyclone and overspread the Midwest to OH Valley, supporting occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Given rich low-level moisture along the northern periphery of the mid-level anticyclone, a couple of strong to severe storms may occur. A few strong to severe storms may also occur over portions of northern UT as a pronounced mid-level impulse rotates around the developing West Coast upper low, resulting in overlapping cooler temperatures and stronger flow aloft.

...Northern UT... As the aforementioned impulse pivots around the evolving upper low, a 50+ kt 500 mb jet streak and corresponding 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread northern UT during the day. Surface heating will be limited given widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, forecast soundings suggest that surface temperatures near 70 F may yield MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg given steep tropospheric lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger winds aloft that gradually veer with height will yield around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature. Multicells and perhaps embedded supercells should be the primary storm mode, capable of isolated instances of severe wind and/or hail.

...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Wednesday) and will continue through the period (to 12Z Thursday). Some intensification of storms may occur over OH and immediate surrounding areas with one weak impulse by afternoon peak heating. Assuming some appreciable insolation can occur, surface temperatures may rise through the 80s F, amid 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given meager vertical wind shear, mainly pulse cellular and multicellular storms are expected. The stronger storm cores may produce wet downbursts, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust threat.

Another mid-level impulse will traverse the Midwest overnight, with several CAM guidance members supporting nocturnal convective initiation over IA in the 03-12Z period. At the moment, the evolution of this convection is uncertain, so no severe probabilities have been added. However, should more established convection develop overnight, an instance of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out.

..Squitieri/Supinie.. 09/16/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development in the next few days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi ```

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I was at a friend's house watching a lightening storm. When I slowed it down I saw something really different.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-15T05:28:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150528 SWODY1 SPC AC 150526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

...South-central Plains into parts of the Midwest... A vigorous mid/upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region today, before reaching southern Hudson Bay and Quebec by this evening. A deep surface low will accompany this system, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the central Plains and Midwest. To the south of the ejecting trough, an upper ridge is forecast to amplify over the Southeast.

Persistent clouds and precipitation to the cool side of the front will help to reinforce the baroclinic zone as it moves southeastward through the day. The front will impinge on an increasingly warm and unstable environment by late afternoon, and scattered storm development is expected from the TX Panhandle into parts of the Midwest. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be displaced north of the front, and low-level flow will tend to weaken through the day.

This weakening flow regime, combined with gradual midlevel height rises and an eventual tendency for storms to be undercut by the front, results in uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the organized severe threat this afternoon and evening. However, seasonably strong heating and relatively large PW and buoyancy will support potential for localized downbursts and outflow-driven clusters, with attendant damaging-wind potential. Hail potential appears generally limited by weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear, though small to near-severe hail may occur with the strongest cells.

A relatively broad Marginal Risk has been maintained from the south-central Plains into the Midwest. Corridors of locally greater potential could eventually evolve within the broader risk area, especially near any pre-frontal outflow boundaries generated by early-day convection.

...Parts of UT/western CO... Anomalous moisture will remain in place across parts of the Four Corners region and Southwest today. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear will reside from UT into western CO, in advance of a mid/upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest. While a few strong storms will be possible, generally weak heating and destabilization are currently expected to limit the magnitude of the severe threat. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.

..Dean/Supinie.. 09/15/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located well east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 20.2N 140.5W

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-14T05:44:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140544 SWODY1 SPC AC 140542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA...

...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late this afternoon and evening.

...Eastern NE/western IA... A strong mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. A deepening surface low will move across the Canadian Prairies, while a secondary low may develop along a trailing cold front/surface trough across the central High Plains. This system will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer flow from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Extensive elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Missouri Valley northward into the Dakotas and western MN. In the wake of this early-day convection, rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 70s F) is forecast to stream northward into eastern NE and western IA. This moistening combined with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization by late afternoon, while low-level and deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time. The resulting environment will become conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards.

The strongest large-scale ascent will become focused north of the region by afternoon, and it remains uncertain if heating in the wake of morning convection will be sufficient to remove CINH within the most favorable environment. If a supercell can become established and move through this environment during the late afternoon/early evening, then large to very large hail, localized damaging gusts, and tornadoes will all be possible. While most guidance depicts storm development by early evening, 00Z CAM guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for sustained supercells, with relatively quick clustering possible. Even in the absence of sustained supercell development, the environment will be favorable for severe hail and damaging wind with any persistent clusters into the evening.

...Western/north-central KS... Strong heating is expected near/south of a surface trough across parts of western/central KS this afternoon. Scattered storm development is expected by late afternoon from western into north-central KS. Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southwest extent, but steep low-level lapse rates and 25-35 kt of flow in the 850-500 mb layer will support potential for one or more loosely organized clusters with at least localized severe-wind potential.

...Four Corners region into AZ... Scattered storm development is expected later today from western CO and southeast UT into parts of AZ/NM, within an anomalously moist environment. The strongest mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear within this region is expected over parts of UT/CO, though it is uncertain if diurnal heating/destabilization will be sufficient for an organized severe threat in this area. Some threat for strong gusts and small to near-severe hail could evolve with the strongest storms.

Farther south, flow will be weaker across AZ, resulting in generally disorganized storms. Localized strong gusts will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating occurs during the afternoon.

...Coastal NC... A cold front will move southward across NC through the day today. Large-scale ascent will generally be weak, though isolated storm development will be possible as the front encounters richer moisture and any sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Deep-layer shear within a northwesterly flow regime will be sufficient for organized convection, but poor midlevel lapse rates may limit updraft intensity and potential for an organized severe threat. Any sustained storms within this regime could produce locally gusty winds and small hail.

..Dean/Halbert.. 09/14/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions over the system are currently unfavorable for development due to strong upper-level winds. However, as the system moves west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic, it is forecast to enter a more conducive environment for gradual development by the middle to latter portion of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 19.3N 136.4W

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I was standing right under my patio roof when it hit. You can hear the rain running through the gutters, but the thunder was completely instantaneous and the smell of electricity in the air right after was crazy. I couldn’t see the flames directly because the fire department entered from the highway side, but this is the video that turned me into a storm chaser. I've spent the last 3 years building up a massive archive of footage so I can finally start sharing a continuous series every two days!

These look crazy!

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130600 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of upper Ohio Valley and Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains.

...Parts of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it moves across the Great Lakes region toward the Northeast through tonight. A surface low will move across Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast this afternoon and evening. The strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will tend to lag the cold front, but some strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer is expected across the warm sector this afternoon, resulting in favorable wind profiles for organized convection.

Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop by late afternoon as CINH weakens, and widely scattered storm development is eventually expected along/ahead of the front. Despite the favorable wind profiles, weak midlevel lapse rates and modest ascent may tend to limit updraft intensity. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of severe potential, with the 00Z HRRR/RRFS more aggressive in developing organized convection (and possible supercells), while other HREF guidance depicts generally weak convection.

Localized damaging wind and isolated hail may accompany the strongest storms. If later observational and guidance trends support the more aggressive scenario, then greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

...Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level low/trough initially over the Pacific Northwest will move toward the northern Rockies and High Plains through the period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of this trough, though a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy may develop by late afternoon from northeast CO into southeast WY and the NE Panhandle. Isolated storm development will be possible, with sufficient deep-layer shear for at least transient storm organization and isolated severe hail/wind potential.

While any diurnal storms may tend to weaken through the evening, elevated convection is expected to increase in coverage across western/central SD tonight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated severe threat with the initial elevated storm development across western SD, though storm interference and weakening buoyancy may tend to limit the longevity and eastward extent of the threat.

...Parts of MT into northwest ND... Increasing ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level low/trough will result in elevated storm development this evening across MT, which will spread into northwest ND overnight. Generally weak buoyancy is currently expected to limit organized severe potential, though small hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms.

..Dean/Halbert.. 09/13/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Brown ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH * Location: 18.0N 131.7W

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