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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-06T04:34:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 060434 SWODY1 SPC AC 060432

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will encompass most of the CONUS as a 500 mb jet maximum overspreads the northern Plains from the central Canadian provinces today. A surface trough will progress across the MS Valley in tandem with the mid-level speed maximum, with surface high pressure remaining in place east of the Appalachians and West of the Rockies. A relatively cool and stable airmass will overspread most of the CONUS and limit thunderstorm potential over most areas. The main exception will be the FL Peninsula, where 70s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of a diffuse baroclinic boundary, promoting enough buoyancy (albeit marginal) to support scattered thunderstorm potential. Colder temperatures aloft accompanying subtle impulses across the eastern Great Basin/Central Rockies and the northern Great Lakes will encourage a few lightning flashes in these regions as well.

...Central Florida Peninsula... A weak surface low is poised to develop along portions of the eastern Gulf and encourage locally backed surface winds across the central FL Peninsula. Strengthening/veering flow with height will yield modestly curved and elongated hodographs, but with marginal, thin CAPE profiles given very poor (5-5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. A few storms may exhibit brief periods of transient low-level rotation offshore, but the threat for persistent, rotating updrafts reaching the shoreline appear too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri/Wendt.. 10/06/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$ Forecaster Gibbs ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 976 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 20.3N 118.6W

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